Ed, snow and hurricane fan

It seems like this year was an acceleration of the trend of warming. The Tonga eruption last year put an estimated 55 million tons of water vapor, a greenhouse gas, into the stratosphere. Early discussions just how the gradual warming of the last 30 years might shift some expected ENSO response/coupling, and then add in a volcano putting a greenhouse gas into the stratosphere, and not fine ash and sulfur dioxide which reflect radiation back into space. Mentioned often in this thread, not many analogs for a strong or super Nino with much above normal Atlantic temps.

I'm not sure I have ever seen cumulus buildups when it is 105°F (at DW Hooks, 101°F at the big airport) I doubt we'll see any rain (although I'd guess some lucky town somewhere in the Houston area will get some rain with gusty winds (30°F T/Td spread)) Edit- I've been in Monahans, TX, when it was over 110°F and dry lightning started a large brush fire, I don't know if the HGX area has ever had a dry lightning grass or forest fire. I was in Monahans the day they tied the Texas all time record of 120°F. Summer job, outside, in the oilfield. Nomex (fire resistant) clothing. 1994.

FWIW, Canadian ensembles also have a strong signal for a Central American Gyre that produces storms in both basins. I don't usually look at the GEPS. I don't know if GEM (and its ensembles) have improved in the last few years, about 10 years ago it was like using the NAM in the tropics.

@brooklynwx99 CanSIPs on the free TT doesn't have 200 mb velocity potential. At least I can't find it. Do you have ASO and/or A, S, O plots. Down here DJF and ENSO is the difference between a mild, dry winter and a cool rainy winter. Ninas are warmer, on average, but all the severe cold snaps (low temps 20F and colder) seem to happen in Nina years.

The trough along the East Coast looks to move W towards the central Great Lakes/Ohio Valley toward mid-month. I suspect the Atlantic remains unfavorable with subsidence and dry air, but it would seem unlikely nothing at all (perhaps a non-tropical system becoming tropical) develops in the second half of August. The Euro weeklies change a bit from run to run, but generally hint at activity near ECUSA latter half of August. Hint of something not tropical on op GFS, an area of moisture with a very weak upper level disturbance near 40N/60W day 8 drifts SW toward the Bahamas around day 12, and from there, it looks like a standard tropical wave. Moves across Florida, starts to organize in the Gulf, runs out of time. Not to rely on a single op run, (hi, @ldub23) much of the run beyond the 10 day resolution truncation., but close in developments, maybe around the Bahamas, with higher heights to the E. (That would bring back fond memories of 1976 and Hurricane Belle)

Euro weeklies the last week do seem to see an enhanced risk the end of August along and offshore ECUSA. Weekly 500 hPa forecast Not shown) for that time, the trough is over the Central/Eastern Lakes down into the Appalachians, with higher than normal heights in the Canadian Maritimes.

Houston forecast high of 104 °F today would be the warmest day so far this summer.

Taunton in a severe t-storm warning. Just checking in to see who was discussing that.

No sign the drought anywhere in the state will improve anytime in August judging by Euro and GFS weeklies. Forecasts are as hot as anytime this summer.

Nothing on the Euro or GFS ensembles after 96L and the possible off the Carolinas sub-tropical system. If anything develops 10-15 days out, I'd guess it'd be subtropical. 8/21 to 8/28, a small signal on the Euro weeklies for something off the ECUSA. Speaking of 96L, SHIPS is as optimistic as any intensity guidance gets, and that is barely Cat 1 intensity.

Double the usual expected ACE for the week of 8-21 to 8-28 per today's Euro weeklies. TC probs, the weeklies see 96L but aren't seeing the EC sub-tropical development the ensembles clearly see. Maybe it does see it in the rainfall anomalies, but not in the TC percentages. About the week of 8-21, perhaps hints of Florida being affected in rainfall anomalies.

As long as fronts can stall and decay E of Florida, ECUSA is not 100% safe. No model support for today's Bahamas blob, but it probably isn't the last Bahamas blob of the year. Even an MDR system could miss the trough. Last two weeks of Euro weeklies have a >5% TC chance along ECUSA.

The dry front produced only very isolated storms over the weekend, and the official Houston high temp was 100*F. TV forecasters had been excited all week about the weekend's rain chances and cooler weather.

This may or may not be the page people are using, but I can't get the images with analog years and the such I see people post in threads. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html

You haven't seen the GFS and Euro ensembles, or the op Euro. I agree 10 hurricanes seems high to me, Euro weeklies don't look very active into early September (although the ACE product is normal to somewhat above normal) but it isn't dead heading into August. Not a slam dunk, only a few GFS ensemble members see it but the Euro system is a big deal if it is just N of the Greater Antilles instead of through it. That system, if it forms, probably fishes, but ten days out, who knows?

I think it is the wave just past 0 degrees the models like a lot more than 95L.

I saw something above about how strong Nino forcing would be for winter, and it does look like it peaks before Thanksgiving (1.761 is the highest 3 month dynamic mean off IRI, in SON). Is it me, or is this Nino rather abrupt in its rise and fall?

Edit to add- I just noticed 95L. Its the MDR lemon. FWIW, SHIPS brings it to a 101 knot Cat 3 in a week. I doubt that. Original post below, Euro weeklies suggesting TWC 20 storms isn't likely. The Euro weeklies don't seem to support The Weather Channels 20 named storms, at least not into early September. They also seem to suggest the next two weeks will actually be the best chance of much. They are picking up on the lemon that Euro ensembles are showing, and maybe something behind it, and then I don't see anything suggesting TC activity after. The Caribbean looks dead, I assume a product of a trough near the East Coast and El Nino shear.

The ensembles at hour zero seems to show the multiple disturbances. CIMSS TPW looks a bit better for the 39W wave than the NHC wave.

It was 100°F at Bush/IAH, but dewpoints mixed down to 71°F, it could have been worse. 2°F short of the 1980 record. I don't think Houston has broken a daily record yet. 98°F at 4pm. Nothing astounding, but GFS and Euro ensembles show some rain next weekend.

OT on that, but JB thinks undersea eruptions are the main factor in the abnormally warm SSTs in the Atlantic and Pacific. Albedo is very low at high sun angle, and the oceans are huge, I'm not smart enough to do the math, but that would require a boatload of undersea volcanoes and vents.

About 15 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members showed a TC in/near the Caribbean in a week, but only 1 below 1000 mb.

The negativity about every season (from the point of view of someone wanting hurricanes and US impacts) you display is a defensive mechanism. The sense I get. You can't be disappointed if you always expect 'the worst' and you hope you can somehow nudge the weather gods into a major Mid Atlantic landfall by constantly saying it won't happen.

Waiting to see whether the on again/off again MDR near 60°W system on the GFS is on again or off again, but the long range OLR map linked, MDR gets hostile end of August but maybe the Caribbean (and thus the Eastern part of the Gulf/Florida might see something in Ocrtober. I posted about ensembles and operationials seeing a storm above, but it has been on again/off again/on again and I'm not doing a play by play 2 or 4 times a day models are supportive of a storm following/models not enthusiastic. I'll do a play by play, maybe, inside 5 days. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

The CAMs get tantalizingly close to Houston with that complex. Probably a futile hope, but a month ago, on a day near 100 in Houston, storms forecast to arrive after midnight in the afternoon arrived just after Sundown. 97 mph wind gust at IAH is an all time record. NWS has 10% probs, which is probably about right. I'm going to water after mowing. That has a decent track record of making it rain.