WhirlingWx

Getting yellow and maybe even a bit of orange in radar returns just NW of McKinney.

That looks like very rapid motion from the big tornado earlier

TOR warning on the Grayson County storm now.

Getting very light radar returns in southeastern Tarrant county, might be nothing but the Denton-Collin County area seems to be strengthening in a matter of several minutes.

A storm might be trying to develop as it crosses into Collin County. So far nothing that concerns me too much, we'll need to watch that one but barring explosive intensification, most of DFW would be okay from it. However, it's possible so wouldn't give an all clear yet, which is the general consensus I think

Dryline appears to be through western Denton and central Tarrant counties

Anyone have an exact position on the dryline for the time being? The Grayson and Cooke county storm will probably be the next to go nuts.

Brett showing a funnel/possible TOG in the distance

Oh wow, nvm then

Yeah I don't believe he's on the TOR warned storm

Good thing we're not seeing stuff like that here, hope I don't jinx it by saying that.

So many chasers out there...

Looks like storms are firing in southern OK, let's see if they stay isolated and don't get undercut.

Was it forecast to get that high over there? Here in southern Collin county we're seeing temps in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s in some spots. It might warm up beyond that too. We're finally getting some considerable sunlight too and it just feels muggy.

That cell is only severe-warned right?

Fair enough, I haven't been comparing both at the same time so looks like the story is still to keep going with obs and nowcasting.

Latest HRRR really tones down any notable activity until storms are east of the immediate DFW area Edit: Just looked at the 18z 3km NAM, it showed storms fire north-south going through Tarrant County at like 3 PM but since that hasn't happened well I guess that may not verify either, so good news as well I suppose.

Yep, I still pass by it from time to time, especially areas around Texas Instruments.

Yup weather radio just went off for me

Oh yes, I definitely agree that with the CAPE present, storms wouldn't need very high amounts of helicity to intensify. In addition, when I said that, I had been looking more at the hodograph and was eyeballing, but afterwards I saw the values themselves which were showing possibly even upwards of 200 m2/s2 of SRH as well. Now I'm getting a little more concerned..

Yeah... I would hope less cars are outside in general as well.

Helicity doesn't look to be super high across north-central Texas, as was mentioned before, but the HRRR has been showing storms forming just west or maybe IN western parts of the DFW metro and tracking east over a still decent environment for the past few runs.

Yeah SE TX might not be doing much, for the time being at least, with the current obs + evolution and movement of convection

No changes were made to the outlook graphic. ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-weather threat extends from parts of central/eastern Oklahoma to north-central/east Texas, to the lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, severe hail and damaging gusts are all possible. No changes have been made to the ongoing outlook areas. ...East TX into LA today... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form in central TX beneath the sub-tropical jet. A very moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates will provide ample CAPE for hail this afternoon in the strongest cells. Considerable shear and helicity also pose an increasing risk of a few tornadoes this afternoon as storms spread into LA. Refer to MCD #436 for further details. ...Eastern OK/Western AR early this afternoon... Scattered strong to severe storms have been occurring over eastern OK this morning, in a region of strengthening low-level warm advection and lift ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The strong cells/clusters may continue to pose a risk of large hail through the early afternoon as they move into western AR and slowly weaken. ...Central OK into North TX this afternoon/evening... A well-defined dryline is expected to develop this afternoon over southwest OK and western north TX - mixing eastward to roughly I-35 by 22z. Very steep lapse rates and dewpoints at least in the mid 60s will yield a corridor of strong MCAPE with values over 3500 J/kg and little inhibition. This will likely result in the development of a few supercells roughly between OKC and FTW. Very large hail will be possible with this activity, as well as a few tornadoes (including strong tornadoes). These supercells will likely persist into the evening and track across southeast OK and northeast TX. ...ArkLaTex overnight... Storms will likely congeal in the late evening over northeast TX and surge eastward overnight across parts of AR/LA and eventually into MS. These storms will have an increasing risk of damaging winds, along with continued threats of hail and tornadoes.

Okay, that makes sense. Yeah, no storms so far but I think there were some showers extending from SW to NE across parts of Dallas county. May not have that much of an effect for later on though. Guess we'll keep waiting for how it unfolds. I really don't think I want any big storms coming through these populated areas.