WhirlingWx

And then Orlando gets rocked by a damaging tornado from Cristobal's outer bands. Heavily populated area and reports of roof collapses but hopefully no casualties. Edited to link a video of said tornado taken from Twitter... Debris lofted to nearly 20k feet as well per CC https://mobile.twitter.com/News6Justin/status/1269415099254673408

If the Interior NW were to stop our May moderate risk drought the 2nd to last day before the end of the month, it would be fitting for 2020. ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL OR TO CENTRAL/EASTERN WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms, offering destructive winds and hail, are most likely between 1 to 10 PM PDT over parts of the interior Pacific Northwest, east of the Cascades. ...Interior Northwest... Primary change is to increase tornado probabilities across parts of central OR. Categorical outlook is largely unchanged. Consideration was given for an upgrade to Moderate Risk in the western portion of the Columbia Basin. Concerns over the spatial extent of the severe wind coverage preclude further upgrading at this time. Thunderstorms will likely intensify after 19Z in a zone of strong deep lift across south-central OR, ahead of an ejecting shortwave trough. Here, robust diabatic heating is underway amid a plume of low to mid 50s surface dew points. This will support a narrow corridor of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 750-1500 J/kg from central to northeast OR. Greater buoyancy is expected to develop towards 00Z farther downstream in eastern WA to northwest MT where mean-mixing ratios are higher. Surface-based effective-inflow parcels will exist on the west side of the surface front, where low-level winds will be veering with height, hodographs strongly curved, and deep shear relatively maximized. With low-level vorticity also maximized in the frontal zone, multiple supercells are expected. Though the environment generally favors higher-based convection, initial supercells should have the best potential for large hail and a couple tornadoes between about 21-23Z. As the supercells spread rapidly north-northeast, at peak boundary-layer heating over the Columbia Basin, upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears probable. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts, some of which may be significant, given the favorable combination of steep lapse rates and moderately large buoyancy. Overall setup appears likely to yield a swath of severe wind in the Columbia Basin from north-central OR across parts of central and eastern WA before the MCS moves into British Columbia.

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmarshwx/status/1266745452009046019 Appears this may be the only comparable outlook, a very unusual setup nonetheless

Maybe this would be better in the general svr thread but, twin waterspouts from Galveston Bay in TX about an hour and a half ago: https://mobile.twitter.com/baldbear87/status/1266071750179196934 They kind of look like legit mesocyclonic tornadoes to me, radar presentation was also pretty much textbook. Another possibly strong waterspout is likely occurring/did occur in the same general area.

As this storm continues to move SE, could it perhaps lay down a boundary that increases SRH in the vicinity, increasing the tornado threat a bit for later on in the day? Given that the boundary would be oriented from roughly NW to SE, more or less parallel to storm motions, any storm later on in the day could latch on and ride the boundary for a while.

And meanwhile, in a marginal and general t-storm area... The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast and east central Colorado Northwest Kansas Extreme southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears to be underway near a mesolow along the dryline near Goodland. At least isolated supercells should evolve from this initial convection, with the potential to produce isolated very large hail and a couple of tornadoes through late evening.

The PDS tornadic supercell in Texas is basically stationary, and in a localized area favorable for it to keep cranking

TOG in Garza County, TX, SW of the town of Post, had/has a PDS on it. I believe that's the first PDS this month? Looking like it'll stay south of Post itself

Reports of a confirmed tornado on the ground west of Bowie, TX

Got a TOR warning in KS and another in NE too

Yeah, showing a BWER and a more intense couplet, I think.

Yeah, looking like intermittent touchdowns(?) for the time being. The storm made a hard right and has a nice presentation on radar.

If the immediate DFW area were in that watch, we'd be on the far eastern edge. As they mention that an increasing tornado threat may materialize in the evening, would that lead to a new WW a bit farther east later on (perhaps including more of the DFW area)?

Mesoscale Discussion 0668 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Areas affected...Portions of North-Central Texs Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221755Z - 221930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is expected within the hour somewhere near Young County, TX. DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have persisted along the western portion of an outflow boundary from the morning MCS. This boundary currently extends from near Childress to the northern suburbs of Dallas/Fort Worth. Temperatures south of this boundary have warmed into the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s yielding MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. This boundary has slowed its southern motion recently and may start to lift back north slightly within the next hour or two as it encounters stronger southerly flow ahead of the boundary. The combination of short residence time along the boundary and dry air entrainment have stunted storm development along the boundary thus far with evidence of a few orphaned anvils. However, SPC mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN has eroded near the boundary. Therefore, it shouldn't be long before storms start to develop. The most likely area for initial storm formation is in Young County, TX where convergence is maximized along the outflow boundary. This is further supported by the 17Z WoFS which shows a maturing storm in this area between 18Z and 19Z. The strong instability, combined with effective shear around 35-40 knots per SPC mesoanalysis supports some supercellular structures. Mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km per 12Z FWD sounding will support the threat for very large hail with these storms, especially initially. Stretching of low-level vorticity in the region of the outflow boundary may provide a brief tornado threat this afternoon, but weakening low-level flow (per FWS and FDR VWP) will be a limiting factor to the overall tornado threat this afternoon. However, later this evening, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen substantially which will enlarge hodographs and lead to an increasing tornado threat.

Several reports of landspouts/tornadoes around the CO/KS border

Ah, thank you. I see, and again we're shown how much subtle details matter. Looks like the localized backing of winds and enlargement of the hodographs (among some other ingredients you mentioned of course) really helped turn that storm into a powerful tornadic supercell. And honestly 35 knots of bulk shear sounds like more shear than there's been in most of the setups so far this month, I could be wrong though.

Deadly EF3 tornado confirmed from Louisiana yesterday... The atmosphere can really surprise us. Does anyone know what the environment in that area was like at the time of the tornado(es) there? I basically paid no attention to it considering it had been a general t-storm risk area

For that storm https://mobile.twitter.com/BraxBanksOKWX/status/1262205919586377730

Now got a tornado warning south of Omaha, NE

Wowie, tornado warnings for 5 different cells/areas of rotation in the Arklatex region now

Yeah pretty interesting for the time of year. I rarely chase and don't have much experience, sort of an armchair kinda person, but I've been looking to go chasing more often (mostly local) and darn I didn't anticipate this; it's only a couple hours away from me. The tornado-warned storms are pretty much lined up from NW to SE, one could just hop down each cell as they see fit (but of course the decision on when to change storms would require more effort and thought). On the other hand, the terrain isn't too ideal in that area and lots of rain happening so I guess that takes away from the likelihood of having a nice view.

A few tornado warnings in effect in parts of NE Texas and SE Oklahoma with the area of low-topped supercells there in the slight risk area

It appears that one cell has been going on for a while now, been seeing the same thing. I think this cell has had 3 tornado warnings now

Picture of tornado near Red Rock, TX https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRichTX/status/1260228858223251461

I guess I could post this here then... Confirmed tornado SE of Austin a while ago and two TOR warned storms continue in that general area. SPC says watch possible and central TX will be upgraded to slight risk. And nice shots Quincy! Bummer that you missed out on Amarillo but cool structure on your storm nonetheless.