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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    My in-depth analysis of the hour 84 NAM is that it exists. And now we wait for the 12z GFS.
  2. MN Transplant
    I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer. One way to visualize is to go to: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation. You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN. Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us.
  3. MN Transplant
    Agree. I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one. I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.
  4. MN Transplant
    You don't want the purple line anywhere! You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible.
  5. MN Transplant
    We have a couple of weeks to will the cold air into this one.
  6. MN Transplant
    Nice visualization from CoolWx for the GFS. You have Omega (effectively upward motion), -12 and -18 °C contours to highlight the dendritic region, and the freezing line. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2020121306&field=omega
  7. MN Transplant
  8. MN Transplant
    Here we go.
  9. MN Transplant
    I think we have a decent feel for what happens at DCA and Winchester. IAD we may not know until it happens.
  10. MN Transplant
    It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal. This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers.
  11. MN Transplant
    My obs are almost always better than DC proper. I think 35 and rain is probably more likely, though.
  12. MN Transplant
    TT has the only GFS snow map worth showing.
  13. MN Transplant
    We are always going to be in big trouble along 95 with an 850 track that goes from central VA to the Delaware Bay per the Euro. Especially early in the season w/o cold air everywhere. The GFS is much more friendly in that regard with a Williamsburg to east of DE track.
  14. MN Transplant
    Snow maps are almost completely useless. The GFS “hit” from earlier is like 3” in DC.
  15. MN Transplant
    Good news remains that it is full of moisture. 1.5"-1.9" through most of MD and N. VA.
  16. MN Transplant
  17. MN Transplant
    Those 850 winds straight from the south are a danger sign, though.
  18. MN Transplant
    500mb looks closer to 12z yesterday than 00z last night.
  19. MN Transplant
    Schools were closed by the governor in MN because of the extreme cold. Watched the quake footage all day.
  20. MN Transplant
    28.6, coldest of the season. DCA also coldest at 30.
  21. MN Transplant
    Woke up to the same temperature as when I went to bed. Still have not been into the 20s at my house. DCA’s lowest temp this season is still only 32.
  22. MN Transplant
    That was barely football today. A win is a win, but woof.
  23. MN Transplant
    That's...not how global temps are calculated.
  24. MN Transplant
    This is pretty amazing.
  25. MN Transplant
    EF4 slipped just to my south. Bust.
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