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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    The exact position of the surface low didn’t end up mattering as much as the upper air features. The 850 low, which is both broad and late developing, is basically over DC allowing the warm air to flood in. We always want an 850 track to the south of DC by a fair margin.
  2. MN Transplant
    That central PA radar is gorgeous.
  3. MN Transplant
    Really impressed with the staying power of the snow. At least .75” liquid on top of 1.5” of snow and it is largely still around. There is still snow on our lighter colored car (not the darker one).
  4. MN Transplant
    1.5" - 12/16
  5. MN Transplant
    1.5” before the switch. The CC line was dead on. Technology is amazing.
  6. MN Transplant
    Clumps of snow falling.
  7. MN Transplant
    1” on the board. Nice job by the HRRR.
  8. MN Transplant
    You can see the CC line get shunted off to the east. Looks ok for another 1-2 hours in the DC area (better NW of course).
  9. MN Transplant
    I'm hoping we can fight it off for a while, at least.
  10. MN Transplant
  11. MN Transplant
    Rooftops are turning white. Winner!
  12. MN Transplant
    Yeah, the low tucking in and stalling before scooting east really plays well for NW areas.
  13. MN Transplant
    The 3km NAM has a QPF problem with upslope over low-to-moderate terrain. Hence the 4”+ at Camp David. Those values can be ignored.
  14. MN Transplant
    The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on.
  15. MN Transplant
    It looks like the two low situation is due to a meso-low from the NC thunderstorm complex on the 3km NAM. Not sure that it plays a huge role in the thermal profile up by us.
  16. MN Transplant
    DC Beltway gets a last moment stick save at 3z with the back side whitening the ground on the 3km.
  17. MN Transplant
    Nice line of thunderstorms in NC on the nest. No comment necessary for the DC area.
  18. MN Transplant
    This does not hold for the 3km.
  19. MN Transplant
    NAM comes in hot and heavy. 18z R/S line is about DCA and then it blows north by 21z. In that period, however, there is ~0.5” precip. The longer that the transition holds off, the better we can do on the front end.
  20. MN Transplant
    Stuck in a meeting, but the big win from the euro run is that the changeover in my neck of the woods is ~3pm and after 0.3”+ of qpf.
  21. MN Transplant
    The problem, though, is that it really comes together so late that we don't get a huge benefit from it sliding to our S anyway. Without the 850 low cranking up earlier, we are just awash in warm air advection.
  22. MN Transplant
    So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band
  23. MN Transplant
    DP in the DC metro at 00z Thursday is 36°. That's most of what I need to know.
  24. MN Transplant
    3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play.
  25. MN Transplant
    That’s a 30”+ run for the two systems for you.
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