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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Yes, the 00z Euro and 12z NAM are very similar with that feature, but the 12z RGEM continued to show a weaker and NE solution. Go Canada!
  2. MN Transplant
    Yes. It is trailing energy from the low that is passing through New England right now. On the 00z Euro it actually ends up merging with our storm over the northeast.
  3. MN Transplant
    Ok - big difference between the NAM and RGEM in the northeast which appears to impact the shape of the trough. Given the choice, we clearly want the RGEM solution which allows the trough to more easily go neutral. NAM top, RGEM bottom.
  4. MN Transplant
    If you forced me to make a forecast right now, I'd put 2-4" for Sunday and another 1-2" with the 500 passage on Monday. That's still a nice 3-6" storm with maybe a bit of upside given some of the other guidance. Its still going to snow
  5. MN Transplant
    There's no mystery here on where we are headed. Rewinding back to one of our great runs from earlier this week. You've got a neutral trough right at our longitude and you've got a backside vort that is going to help dig and stall even more. This is a great look for a big storm. Then you have the NAM this morning. Positively-tilted trough, not much help on the backside. This is just a run-of-the-mill storm look around here.
  6. MN Transplant
    Another model run with a positively-tilted trough. Looks like the CCB is up in Long Island and NJ. We get snow showers on the backside from the 500 low passage, but it is not really the the beatdown that we are looking for.
  7. MN Transplant
    This is the first time that the NAM nest has run through the WAA period, and it is certainly drier than the 12km NAM. Still ~0.4" around DC, but that is actually somewhat of a jackpot zone.
  8. MN Transplant
    NAM 12km is just fine on the front side. No p-type concerns in DC until 00z. At that point, ~0.6" precip has fallen.
  9. MN Transplant
    I'm sure that is has been stated in the many pages back, but the big problem we have with the backside/stall scenario right now is that the trough is still a bit positively tilted at our longitude. Prior runs were showing it neutral. That results in the shove off the coast.
  10. MN Transplant
    Everybody hating the Euro and I'm just sitting here in the DC area...
  11. MN Transplant
    Especially if the sleet is during the lull after the WAA anyway. You aren’t “wasting” much precip.
  12. MN Transplant
    In a perfect scenario I think we’d like to see a bit more of a surface reflection at 84, but you can start to see it and it will stall as the 500 comes close. That 500 track looks good. Better than the open wave GFS at that point.
  13. MN Transplant
    Looks great for us on the front, with the usually caveat of the NAM being too juicy. Questionable low position at 84, but the 500 low is on track.
  14. MN Transplant
    It is a deeper 500 low than the Euro, interestingly. But, NAM.
  15. MN Transplant
    NAM is also cold at the surface and 925. 850 is another story, but it is all sleet, no rain like the GfS or even Euro.
  16. MN Transplant
    NAM is juicy on the front end, as it usually is. Over 0.5” qpf by Sunday evening in DC when the column gets too warm.
  17. MN Transplant
    Total snow 10:1 at DCA - 10” hooray! Total depth change - 3” argh!
  18. MN Transplant
    GFS torches again overnight Sun into Monday. 38 at the surface at DCA. we are going to have some takers for the 93 hour panel, though.
  19. MN Transplant
    Hard to argue against this
  20. MN Transplant
    Stacked right under the 500 low at that point (Tuesday, 12z)
  21. MN Transplant
    500 low on the IN/OH border at 84. Backstream vort in Alberta. Same as 00z.
  22. MN Transplant
    I'm not seeing any dramatic changes at 500mb.
  23. MN Transplant
    It doesn't look quite as bad if you squint and don't worry about the specific low location, I think. The good part of the GFSv16 is that while we lose the column at some point late Sunday into Monday, the temps don't spike. DCA peaks at about 34, vs 39 on the GFS. Those looking for a good backside on the para should avert their eyes.
  24. MN Transplant
    Para GFS is a nice 3-5" front end.
  25. MN Transplant
    I'm not sure whether this is predictive or not, but it looks like one of the reasons why the GFS is a bit further north for longer is that it retains a connection to the upper level low/trough in central Canada. 12z GFS above, 00z Euro below, both for Sunday morning. You can see that the Euro is more divorced from the low/trough than the GFS is (also shown in the slight wind streak north of MN on the Euro that is less impressive on the GFS).
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