MN Transplant
-
Posts
17,273 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by MN Transplant
-
This does not hold for the 3km.
-
NAM comes in hot and heavy. 18z R/S line is about DCA and then it blows north by 21z. In that period, however, there is ~0.5” precip. The longer that the transition holds off, the better we can do on the front end.
-
Stuck in a meeting, but the big win from the euro run is that the changeover in my neck of the woods is ~3pm and after 0.3”+ of qpf.
-
The problem, though, is that it really comes together so late that we don't get a huge benefit from it sliding to our S anyway. Without the 850 low cranking up earlier, we are just awash in warm air advection.
-
So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band
-
DP in the DC metro at 00z Thursday is 36°. That's most of what I need to know.
-
3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play.
-
That’s a 30”+ run for the two systems for you.
-
NAM is a torch. Low from Wilmington to west of Va Beach. Still irrelevant.
-
The offense and defense played it right there with Tampa. The Special Teams...not so much.
-
Always worry about depending on the backside, but that’s how we’ll play the game. New snow depth up to 00z Thursday, and then after.
-
Better than 12z
-
We barely lose 925, but it is close enough that rates will matter. Good run.
-
I got 3”. Nobody likes to talk about March 2013, but that is another forum divider.
-
Different model runs. Conclusion still valid, though.
-
Had to!
-
Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive
-
-
We lose the column below 850 at DCA at the 21z and 00z panels, but certainly better than the mesoscale models.
-
My in-depth analysis of the hour 84 NAM is that it exists. And now we wait for the 12z GFS.
-
I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer. One way to visualize is to go to: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation. You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN. Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us.
-
Agree. I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one. I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.
-
You don't want the purple line anywhere! You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible.
-
We have a couple of weeks to will the cold air into this one.
-
Nice visualization from CoolWx for the GFS. You have Omega (effectively upward motion), -12 and -18 °C contours to highlight the dendritic region, and the freezing line. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2020121306&field=omega
