MN Transplant
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Everything posted by MN Transplant
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Big ridge out there, MCSs rolling over top of it into our area. I'm in.
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My home territory is having their own 2009-2010. 40-50" of snow in February in places S and SE of Minneapolis.
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Windy, but at least inside the Beltway it has been a run-of-the-mill synoptic wind event. Highest gust at DCA so far is 44mph. Pretty much matches what I have at home. IAD has been in the upper 40s and Andrews has been to 52. Nothing like last March.
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The ratios were good, but I am guessing that the bigger problem was undercatch in the gauges. The climo sites are notorious for coming up with low precip amounts during winter storms.
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11/15/2018 1.5 1/12-1/13/19 9.8 1/17/19 1.4 1/29/19 1.4 2/1/19 1.3 2/10/19 0.3 2/20/19 3.5 18-19 Seasonal 19.2 % of average seasonal 96%
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32.7 here. Warm enough overnight to take care of the rest of the snow/ice that was on the driveway, but the elevated surfaces are still frozen.
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More lightning out west in WV/MD.
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3.5” total. ZR is mixing in now. 31.2
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You are truly one of us now.
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The orange (40dbz+) areas are fun. How about some massive kudos to the models that saw the "retreat" of the sleet line during the heavy dumps. Really impressive.
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Was sleet, back to fatties. Impressive clumps.
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Yeah, we have some graupel and rimed flakes mixing in. Still mostly -sn
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2.6”
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RadarScope indicates a lightning strike in WV with the stuff coming our way.
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2.0” now, 0.8” in the last hour. An indication of the size of this storm, it is pouring snow in my hometown in MN right now from the same system.
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For anyone worried about the “hole” to the south, that isn’t our problem from DC north. The current radar and all the modeling indicates that the second round of precip is from the expansion/enhancement of the shield from the west. The remaining question is whether that can get here in time to head off the sleet line (which is coming, but can be effectively slowed by heavier precip). Ob: Nice fat flakes falling. Not pouring snow, but not exactly a lazy fall either.
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A 15 minute snow observation - whatever accumulated on our Sheltie
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7am CoCoRaHS ob: 1.2” snow, 0.08” precip suck it, Ferrier scheme coming down awesome in the yellows
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I’d have to think that there is something amiss with the Ferrier scheme in this scenario. That is implying a sub 5:1 ratio which is really hard to come by. That said, if you thought the 00z HRRR was bad, 01z upped the bar there.
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Yup. 0.4” near DC by the 15z changeover.
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3”/hr. Totally checks out.
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That's what the HRRR was doing at 12z. A beatdown just as we were in danger of flipping.
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I know it isn't worth using as a forecasting tool, but as an example of how we at the DC latitude could potentially maximize this storm is the 12z extended HRRR. The sleet line approaches at 15z after 2-3" like the NAM, but then the precipitation ramps up in intensity and effectively "beats back" the mix line so that we end up with 6-7" by 19z.
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The 12z 3km NAM is frozen in DC through 00z, but only ~0.5" qpf. That is definitely on the low side of what we've been seeing.
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Roughly, though more of that will be sleet than zr
