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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    At 700 the low is more elongated SW to NE, which helps. I can't say what the cause of that is, though.
  2. MN Transplant
    I'm looking at the initial vort that comes around the base of the trough at ~hr 54. That makes more progress in the 18z run than it did at 12z. It is subtle, but might be helping.
  3. MN Transplant
    I don't know. It is better to compare it to the other front-end projections, not the 12km NAM since we know that one is often wet.
  4. MN Transplant
    700 frontogenesis - NJ is the winner in the NAM run.
  5. MN Transplant
    Nest is still drier on the front end. 0.2-0.4" QPF by 00z Monday.
  6. MN Transplant
    The 11:35am 5-min ob. I actually made it to 33.7 at home.
  7. MN Transplant
    The Euro and NAM continue to be the models with more impact from the energy moving through Canada and New England.
  8. MN Transplant
    Para GFS (v16) is drier and colder than the OP. 0.75-1" QPF total. Kucera 6" near DC, closer to a foot by the PA border.
  9. MN Transplant
    The GFS is a bit on an island with the 00z to 12z Monday period. Most of the models have a pause or lighter precip. The GFS has significant (0.5"-1.0") precip during that timeframe. The struggle is of course that this is the most likely period to have thermal troubles.
  10. MN Transplant
  11. MN Transplant
    The good news is that the 12z GFS is more RGEM like with that piece. The thermals remain a problem, but, GFS.
  12. MN Transplant
    Yes, the 00z Euro and 12z NAM are very similar with that feature, but the 12z RGEM continued to show a weaker and NE solution. Go Canada!
  13. MN Transplant
    Yes. It is trailing energy from the low that is passing through New England right now. On the 00z Euro it actually ends up merging with our storm over the northeast.
  14. MN Transplant
    Ok - big difference between the NAM and RGEM in the northeast which appears to impact the shape of the trough. Given the choice, we clearly want the RGEM solution which allows the trough to more easily go neutral. NAM top, RGEM bottom.
  15. MN Transplant
    If you forced me to make a forecast right now, I'd put 2-4" for Sunday and another 1-2" with the 500 passage on Monday. That's still a nice 3-6" storm with maybe a bit of upside given some of the other guidance. Its still going to snow
  16. MN Transplant
    There's no mystery here on where we are headed. Rewinding back to one of our great runs from earlier this week. You've got a neutral trough right at our longitude and you've got a backside vort that is going to help dig and stall even more. This is a great look for a big storm. Then you have the NAM this morning. Positively-tilted trough, not much help on the backside. This is just a run-of-the-mill storm look around here.
  17. MN Transplant
    Another model run with a positively-tilted trough. Looks like the CCB is up in Long Island and NJ. We get snow showers on the backside from the 500 low passage, but it is not really the the beatdown that we are looking for.
  18. MN Transplant
    This is the first time that the NAM nest has run through the WAA period, and it is certainly drier than the 12km NAM. Still ~0.4" around DC, but that is actually somewhat of a jackpot zone.
  19. MN Transplant
    NAM 12km is just fine on the front side. No p-type concerns in DC until 00z. At that point, ~0.6" precip has fallen.
  20. MN Transplant
    I'm sure that is has been stated in the many pages back, but the big problem we have with the backside/stall scenario right now is that the trough is still a bit positively tilted at our longitude. Prior runs were showing it neutral. That results in the shove off the coast.
  21. MN Transplant
    Everybody hating the Euro and I'm just sitting here in the DC area...
  22. MN Transplant
    Especially if the sleet is during the lull after the WAA anyway. You aren’t “wasting” much precip.
  23. MN Transplant
    In a perfect scenario I think we’d like to see a bit more of a surface reflection at 84, but you can start to see it and it will stall as the 500 comes close. That 500 track looks good. Better than the open wave GFS at that point.
  24. MN Transplant
    Looks great for us on the front, with the usually caveat of the NAM being too juicy. Questionable low position at 84, but the 500 low is on track.
  25. MN Transplant
    It is a deeper 500 low than the Euro, interestingly. But, NAM.
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