MN Transplant
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Everything posted by MN Transplant
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The 3km NAM has a QPF problem with upslope over low-to-moderate terrain. Hence the 4”+ at Camp David. Those values can be ignored.
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The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on.
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It looks like the two low situation is due to a meso-low from the NC thunderstorm complex on the 3km NAM. Not sure that it plays a huge role in the thermal profile up by us.
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DC Beltway gets a last moment stick save at 3z with the back side whitening the ground on the 3km.
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Nice line of thunderstorms in NC on the nest. No comment necessary for the DC area.
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This does not hold for the 3km.
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NAM comes in hot and heavy. 18z R/S line is about DCA and then it blows north by 21z. In that period, however, there is ~0.5” precip. The longer that the transition holds off, the better we can do on the front end.
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Stuck in a meeting, but the big win from the euro run is that the changeover in my neck of the woods is ~3pm and after 0.3”+ of qpf.
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The problem, though, is that it really comes together so late that we don't get a huge benefit from it sliding to our S anyway. Without the 850 low cranking up earlier, we are just awash in warm air advection.
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So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band
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DP in the DC metro at 00z Thursday is 36°. That's most of what I need to know.
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3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play.
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That’s a 30”+ run for the two systems for you.
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NAM is a torch. Low from Wilmington to west of Va Beach. Still irrelevant.
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The offense and defense played it right there with Tampa. The Special Teams...not so much.
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Always worry about depending on the backside, but that’s how we’ll play the game. New snow depth up to 00z Thursday, and then after.
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Better than 12z
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We barely lose 925, but it is close enough that rates will matter. Good run.
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I got 3”. Nobody likes to talk about March 2013, but that is another forum divider.
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Different model runs. Conclusion still valid, though.
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Had to!
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Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive
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We lose the column below 850 at DCA at the 21z and 00z panels, but certainly better than the mesoscale models.
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My in-depth analysis of the hour 84 NAM is that it exists. And now we wait for the 12z GFS.
