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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    3km is more like 0.5” before a mixing threat.
  2. MN Transplant
    Yeah, it’s a transfer. You can see the 12z Euro does the same, just with a different, more southerly orientation that helps us out some.
  3. MN Transplant
    We get the 700 wind vector pointed at us, but it is not a nice moist fetch off the ocean, it is a very long route over NYC and the coming in from the north. Just not much left by the time it gets here. 06z Monday to 06z Tuesday. Not much after either.
  4. MN Transplant
    Our worst-case scenario seems to be the 00z NAM Nest dry front side and the 00z 12km NAM dry backside. That’s about a 3” storm for many of us along 95.
  5. MN Transplant
    And on queue, the NAM 3km is very dry on the front side again. 0.2” QPF by 00z Monday.
  6. MN Transplant
    The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z.
  7. MN Transplant
    12km NAM holding serve with a very wet front side. 6” WAA thump.
  8. MN Transplant
    Maybe we want less precip over Lake Michigan.
  9. MN Transplant
    Say what you want about the GFS, but this is pretty good precip field consistency in our area.
  10. MN Transplant
    6 hr precip 12-18z Monday on the RGEM. Actual numbers irrelevant, but the placement...
  11. MN Transplant
    At 700 the low is more elongated SW to NE, which helps. I can't say what the cause of that is, though.
  12. MN Transplant
    I'm looking at the initial vort that comes around the base of the trough at ~hr 54. That makes more progress in the 18z run than it did at 12z. It is subtle, but might be helping.
  13. MN Transplant
    I don't know. It is better to compare it to the other front-end projections, not the 12km NAM since we know that one is often wet.
  14. MN Transplant
    700 frontogenesis - NJ is the winner in the NAM run.
  15. MN Transplant
    Nest is still drier on the front end. 0.2-0.4" QPF by 00z Monday.
  16. MN Transplant
    The 11:35am 5-min ob. I actually made it to 33.7 at home.
  17. MN Transplant
    The Euro and NAM continue to be the models with more impact from the energy moving through Canada and New England.
  18. MN Transplant
    Para GFS (v16) is drier and colder than the OP. 0.75-1" QPF total. Kucera 6" near DC, closer to a foot by the PA border.
  19. MN Transplant
    The GFS is a bit on an island with the 00z to 12z Monday period. Most of the models have a pause or lighter precip. The GFS has significant (0.5"-1.0") precip during that timeframe. The struggle is of course that this is the most likely period to have thermal troubles.
  20. MN Transplant
  21. MN Transplant
    The good news is that the 12z GFS is more RGEM like with that piece. The thermals remain a problem, but, GFS.
  22. MN Transplant
    Yes, the 00z Euro and 12z NAM are very similar with that feature, but the 12z RGEM continued to show a weaker and NE solution. Go Canada!
  23. MN Transplant
    Yes. It is trailing energy from the low that is passing through New England right now. On the 00z Euro it actually ends up merging with our storm over the northeast.
  24. MN Transplant
    Ok - big difference between the NAM and RGEM in the northeast which appears to impact the shape of the trough. Given the choice, we clearly want the RGEM solution which allows the trough to more easily go neutral. NAM top, RGEM bottom.
  25. MN Transplant
    If you forced me to make a forecast right now, I'd put 2-4" for Sunday and another 1-2" with the 500 passage on Monday. That's still a nice 3-6" storm with maybe a bit of upside given some of the other guidance. Its still going to snow
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