Ha. We can’t afford any type of amped system. We can do a nice gentle overrunning, but if this thing gets overactive it’ll flood us and we can kiss any snow goodbye.
Simply put, it the snow doesn't have the time or opportunity to melt on the way to the surface. It is generally going to be a shallow (and relatively dry) warm layer when it snows at 40.
Right on 0.50” total precip.
0.19” fell as rain
0.31” and 1.7” snow equals a nice 5.5:1 ratio when it was snowing.
The HRRR/NAM Kuchera ratios weren’t far off.
HRRR was too dry from a distance, but it nailed the front end rain and the temps.
Feels like I have to go measure every half hour to make sure that I am able to report the max new snow depth.
Both the HRRR and NAM take us to 40 this afternoon.
Best case might be a 3/25/13 situation. 4” paste bomb on .5-.6” precip in the western DC beltway. Never dropped below 32.8. Started during the late overnight hours which helped.