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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    NAM at 84 is barely worth talking about, but it is nice and cold on the front side. Nice 4-6" hit.
  2. MN Transplant
    Let’s be honest, per TT’s snow depth change it is a 2” storm on the front side with some wackiness on the back to pump it up.
  3. MN Transplant
    Honestly, it is falling apart before that.
  4. MN Transplant
    500 is not impressive on the 18z GFS.
  5. MN Transplant
    '83 and '09 too.
  6. MN Transplant
    The good thing is that this isn't some crazy setup. We have a nice big trough crossing the country and there will be a traditional transfer from a dying OH valley surface low to an East Coast low. The GFS keeps the trough more positively tilted as the axis gets towards 95, which is more of a large-scale pattern issue. The backside vort may help there, but it isn't the whole story (it is never one thing, of course).
  7. MN Transplant
    It doesn't just overdo the winds, the gust product is truly awful. That is one area of the Euro that can be completely dismissed.
  8. MN Transplant
    Two other things on the backside vort. The GFS has it, but like the 00z Euro run, it is too late to help slow/wrap up the UL low over us. And, the vort energy appears to be over Japan right now, so we are going to be waiting to see how the models handle it the rest of the week.
  9. MN Transplant
    The other quick-look thing on temps is that the Euro is keeping a 3-4 degree dew point depression at the height of the precipitation (so, 35/32 at DCA). That's unlikely.
  10. MN Transplant
    Ok, a few images. 12z yesterday, 00z last night, 12z today. All for Monday 18z. One of the most noticeable things here is that the vort behind the system helps to dig the trough and wrap up the 500 low in the two 12z runs, but it is too late to really help in last night's 00z run.
  11. MN Transplant
    There is a vort that comes down from the Lake Winnipeg area that seems to play a very important role in the backside of the trough and slowing down the overall system. We'll have to keep an eye on that.
  12. MN Transplant
    This is a shocking, shocking area for the deathband to set up.
  13. MN Transplant
    It looks like an actual storm, where we worry about mix in DC and the favored areas get slammed.
  14. MN Transplant
    ~1003mb in the Outer Banks at 120
  15. MN Transplant
  16. MN Transplant
  17. MN Transplant
    Pivotal showing 30"+ in central VA.
  18. MN Transplant
    Gonna be double digits at DCA. Better south. We'll see if it holds on like 00z.
  19. MN Transplant
  20. MN Transplant
    1.5" - 12/16 0.1" - 12/18 0.1" - 1/25 Total: 1.7"
  21. MN Transplant
    I lost to you and DCA. That doesn’t happen often. 0.1” frozen on 0.25” precip
  22. MN Transplant
    32.2 and light snow. Better than nothing, I guess.
  23. MN Transplant
    All sleet in Falls Church. 33.1. Elevated surfaces getting icy.
  24. MN Transplant
    37.1. 3km NAM sounding at 00z.
  25. MN Transplant
    I’m all about the schadenfreud at this point. Stafford behind our OL would be permanently damaged by week 2.
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