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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    I feel like if you see something anomalous, you want a pretty good model consensus to go that way. And never trust the RGEM if it is doing something stupid.
  2. MN Transplant
    Verification (IMBY) 3.2" Sunday 1.5" Monday/Tuesday Always go with the pessimistic forecast
  3. MN Transplant
    We're looking at the area north of Germantown/Gaithersburg/Rockville.
  4. MN Transplant
    Street back to being covered. Nice to freshen up the snow.
  5. MN Transplant
    The GFS has been showing precip along the cold frontal passage at the edge of the arctic airmass at 6-7 days. Those can be squall-y and fun if it comes together right. Something to keep an eye on.
  6. MN Transplant
    Certainly is colder than many of the models thought for this morning. 26.2 here. Two day total of 3.2" snow and 0.38" precip, the last 0.05" was ice. CoCoRaHS two-day reports
  7. MN Transplant
    The GFS has an event. Different evolution with a wave along a stalled front. It could work, but the whole setup is in flux. Too far out, still.
  8. MN Transplant
    00z Euro is a dud for next weekend’s storm. 500 doesn’t look as good and the storm pops late and is weak. Would love to hit on this storm, even if minor, and then have the Arctic chill follow it.
  9. MN Transplant
    29.5. -ZR, which it appears it will be for quite a while.
  10. MN Transplant
    3.2" on 0.33" precip.
  11. MN Transplant
    7am - 1.0” 9am - 2.0” 11am - 2.4”
  12. MN Transplant
    The problem is that the exact surface low location doesn’t matter too much for us. The target is still Long Island/NYC/Northern NJ.
  13. MN Transplant
    Neighborhood fox out for a stroll in the snow
  14. MN Transplant
    2.0” on the snowboard in Falls Church. 0.5”/hr rate.
  15. MN Transplant
    Must have been between 4-5am based on my temp/DP trace. Edit - per my cameras, actually closer to 3:30am.
  16. MN Transplant
    1.0” even. 29.0
  17. MN Transplant
    A transfer that gives DC 4” and NYC 20”+. Yeah, that tracks.
  18. MN Transplant
    The NAM reforms the 500 low over NJ vs the 12z Euro doing it over us. We quite simply can’t have a 500 low north of us. It doesn’t work.
  19. MN Transplant
    I’d rather it was on our side.
  20. MN Transplant
    It’ll be good if we all just pretend that the 00z HRRR doesn’t exist.
  21. MN Transplant
    I’m about 4 miles NW of you and have about 150’ elevation. It is 4 degrees warmer here. Looks like we set up an inversion, which also tracks because the air quality got worse in the last few hours too.
  22. MN Transplant
    Temp bounced a bit, though it is really pretty irrelevant. 31.8 00z HRRR is ok, but flips to sleet in DC earlier (22z).
  23. MN Transplant
    The GFS sucks
  24. MN Transplant
    The precip is just so light at that point, though. We can add some fluff, but the last 6 hours of the Nest is 0.1-0.15” liquid.
  25. MN Transplant
    0.7” QPF, though I’d use the 3km at this range. 4-6” is looking good. NAMs don’t have much on the back.
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