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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    3k is a sleet event right from the start in DC. 1” qpf.
  2. MN Transplant
    The 850 temp change from 09z to 12z are...not entirely believable.
  3. MN Transplant
    Legit snorted. HRRR continues to look ok for DC. All snow through 14z with sleet knocking on the door, but heavy precip.
  4. MN Transplant
    Weather boards. Serious business. 33.8 and a very pleasant day out there. Snow board is set up and ready for some sort of precipitation.
  5. MN Transplant
    ~0.4” QPF from 11-13z at DCA on the 18z 3k NAM
  6. MN Transplant
    The GFS is almost 1.5” QPF at DCA, all frozen. That is an amazing model run, even if it is only some front end snow.
  7. MN Transplant
    The trough axis at that point is in the central Plains. While we do pop a surface low in the right spot, this is not a good setup for an all-snow event for our region, no matter what the year is.
  8. MN Transplant
    The 12z HRRR is sure a pick-me-up.
  9. MN Transplant
    24.0. Mostly sunny.
  10. MN Transplant
    FYI - the total precip at DCA for the Valentines 2007 sleet bomb was 1.06”. So, this is right in that ballpark.
  11. MN Transplant
    Something is falling at DCA
  12. MN Transplant
    Our neighborhood crocus house has a bunch up, but everything is definitely later than last year.
  13. MN Transplant
    That’s the run we’ve been impatiently waiting for.
  14. MN Transplant
    It looks like 12z was a weird blip. Check this out.
  15. MN Transplant
    While generally true, the 18z NAM 3k is just a region wide precip show. DC isn't even in the best band, almost everyone is 0.75"+ in that time period.
  16. MN Transplant
    Well, here's your relevant NAM trend
  17. MN Transplant
    3k has 0.91" precip in 6 hours from 12z-18z. While I want that all to be snow, the sleet beatdown would be crazy to watch (and hear).
  18. MN Transplant
    NAM is going to have a big win, or go down with the ship, it appears.
  19. MN Transplant
    And I have 7" to show for it. The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable.
  20. MN Transplant
    I think we can do it. Our most recent single-digits cold snap isn't actually all that long ago (Jan 31, 2019). 10 at DCA, 6 at my house, probably colder everywhere else.
  21. MN Transplant
    Ha. It has been a bit since we've been that cold.
  22. MN Transplant
    Single digits for most of us outside the city cores on Sunday morning.
  23. MN Transplant
    Keeps Friday near freezing, maximizing our cold chances into the weekend.
  24. MN Transplant
    One of these things is not like the other. One of these things (hopefully) doesn't belong.
  25. MN Transplant
    This is still a wild difference at 700mb. 12z NAM and 06z GFS for Thursday morning.
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