You are super wrong about the current forecast models, but you do have some support on the analog side. There are groups out there that are experimenting with machine learning using a trained data set (the analogs). It’ll be interesting to see how that works out.
Will be really interesting to see if the Euro closes off the 500 low on this run. The other globals do and the NAM (lol) looked like it was headed that way.
Hands down the August 11th microburst in the NW DC Beltway. 59mph on my anemometer before we lost power and the best gusts came through. 6+ houses within a few blocks hit by trees and uninhabitable. More damage than the derecho locally.
I’ll give a runner up to the Arlington tornado.
Not ZR, but tomorrow unfortunately looks like a snow eater. NAM is 40 and rain and the HRRR takes DC to the mid-40s prior to the front. Hoping the wedge holds more than that, but I’m not encouraged.