I noted earlier today that the models with the more northerly precip shield had a low passage between Va. Beach and Hattarras. The HRRR has trended this way.
This a strange situation where it is 60 degrees within 12 hours of a snow event, and we want to make sure that the cold air doesn’t come in too aggressively and forces the baroclinic zone too far south.
The low track is pretty crucial for our northern neighbors. The GFS and Euro take the surface low between Hattaras and Va Beach, and they have the further NW extent. The NAM and HRRR are over Hattaras and have a brutal cutoff.
62.2.
Someone posted the Cobb output from the GFS in the other thread. 9” in two hours at DCA. Yeah.
https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca
Unreal difference in precipitation in 2021 between eastern Loudoun Co. and Fairfax Co. IAD is under 35", and there is a CoCoRaHS site in Ashburn that is 29.54". Meanwhile I'm at 48.51" in Falls Church and there is a spot of 53.42" in Annandale.