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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    DCA: 11/14 IAD: 10/27 BWI: 11/14 RIC: 11/14 Tiebreaker: 0.89”
  2. MN Transplant
    Sam is now the #1 ACE system in the 2021 Atlantic season
  3. MN Transplant
    I figured that the ridge out west would hold and we wouldn't go super-high this year, but the final numbers are shockingly low, especially RIC.
  4. MN Transplant
    It feels right for the GOAT kicker to have the record.
  5. MN Transplant
    The big problem with the GFS forecast now is that we barely see the sun for a week starting 5-6 days out.
  6. MN Transplant
    The last winter that fell in that temperature range at DCA was 13-14.
  7. MN Transplant
    Actually had to close the windows up again since it popped to 74 and it is still kind of humid out with everything so wet. Looks like there is a second surge of drier air coming this evening.
  8. MN Transplant
    2.25”. looks like the big spots were E and W of Frederick this time.
  9. MN Transplant
    Big severe warning box south of DC. Guess it makes sense with how quickly these are moving.
  10. MN Transplant
    The UHI problem is well-known and accounted for in larger-scale analyses. This summer wasn't super hot, but it shouldn't have been based on where the ridge set up in the west. It is actually kind of sad that we didn't end up below normal. I think the late season humidity also skewed perception of the summer.
  11. MN Transplant
    Brief downpours in these tiny cells.
  12. MN Transplant
    It is fun to crap on Kirk, but he led game-winning type drives in both games this season, only to see his star RB “fumble” (air quotes because the booth f-d up the review) and his kicker miss.
  13. MN Transplant
    Those dew points.
  14. MN Transplant
    Got it. "Peak season" was throwing me off.
  15. MN Transplant
    Ok, there are too many pages. What are these numbers? Is that a full-year forecast, or a forecast-to-date? What does the () refer to?
  16. MN Transplant
    Euro has the frontal passage on Thursday. GFS Wednesday. Go USA!
  17. MN Transplant
    Radar totals seem to be matching ground truth. Near 3” in an hour in Annandale inside the Beltway and by Inova Fairfax hospital. Only about a half inch here.
  18. MN Transplant
    2007 Mote, T.L., M.C. Lacke, and J.M. Shepherd, 2007: Radar signatures of the urban effect on precipitation distribution: A case study for Atlanta, Georgia. Geophysical Research Letters. 34. L20710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031903. You can probably trace from Marshall Shepherd’s work to get to what is most interesting to you.
  19. MN Transplant
    Got the alert for a flash flood emergency.
  20. MN Transplant
    Plenty have tried. There are papers about it, but differentiating all the aspects is difficult.
  21. MN Transplant
    FF Watch. Looking at radar, I don’t see any way that the UHI over DC didn’t contribute to initiation.
  22. MN Transplant
    That's the service you get when you try to gut an essential organization.
  23. MN Transplant
    Hard to tell from a still image. "Clear air" echoes can be a variety of things, with bugs probably being the top culprit. The radar wavelength that the NWS radar are at (S-band, 10cm) are also sensitive to Bragg scattering from atmospheric eddies. At times, the radar beam can also be reflected back to the surface (anomalous propagation).
  24. MN Transplant
    They seem really loud this year, but I can’t tell whether I’m just hyper-sensitive to them now.
  25. MN Transplant
    Larry is going to rack up some ACE.
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