mattie g

41 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think it's fine looking at the LSR and PNS

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS

 

.Fairfax County...
  Newington              10.0  1100 PM  1/06  NWS Employee
  Burke 2 S               9.6  1013 PM  1/06  Public
  Lorton                  9.5  1000 PM  1/06  NWS Employee
  Hybla Valley 1 ESE      9.5   947 PM  1/06  Trained Spotter
  West Springfield 2 W    9.3  1010 PM  1/06  Trained Spotter
  Fairfax Station 1 SE    9.2  1145 PM  1/06  Trained Spotter

I suppose if you look at the Burke, Fairfax Station, and West Springfield ones together then I might be low (and that's why I'm not a trained spotter lol). Either way, it was a bummer when we pinged, but there was frozen falling for almost the whole day and then we did pretty well with the ULL. No complaints!

A weenie in Burke reported 9.6". I guess it could have happened, especially if I had some compaction once the sleet started yesterday. Since I didn't measure until well after that flip, I may have shorted myself. Curious to see if other nearby spotters report similar.

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Just got in from an epic jebwalk in that band and I just kept saying “this is what its all about” while just looking up into the sky as the dendrites were smacking me on my face.

Went out again with the pup and couldn’t help but revel in it. It was simply glorious.

I’m going to go with 8.5” total for the storm, with this evening’s snow being the best part of it!

Last hurrah for this storm. Me and my new boy (got him four days ago) on our last Jebwalk of the day. Fuckin’ awesome…

23 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Lmao at them Tweeting this.  Insane thing to write outside of this message board.

 

https://x.com/fox5dc/status/1876422265123860495?s=46

Not clicking that shit.

I mentioned the walk that I took with my girls and our new dog…

While we were out in puking snow I couldn’t help but mutter to myself “Snow is the f*cking best.”

By the way…got my 1.25” (most in the last 1.5 hours of beautiful dendrites) to hit 8” on the day. Would love to squeeze in another inch, but no matter at all if we don’t.

@WxUSAF…did you get your walk in?

Girls, pup, and I just got back from a 20-minute trot and we were in a band that was just crushing dendrites. Absolutely awesome snow walk!

5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Lmao wtf 

Said it like 10 pages ago. I don’t give a shit about the HRRR. It’s hot dumpster funk for this event.

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Snizzle has resumed.  Waiting for fatty dendrites.  Have a 7pm @Jebman Jebwalk scheduled, so need a snow globe.  

Gonna take the new rescue pup out for a walk around the same time. He’s been loving it today!

Got him out at like 8:00 am when it was ripping and hope we have the same experience this evening!

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I’m expecting a delay. With only 3 allotted days before going virtual, I’m not sure BCPS will close. But who knows, southern part of the county doubled or more than up here. 

Fairfax has 10 days built in. Yes...10.

I love my kids to death and I'm glad they're having a blast, but they'll have been home for 2.5 weeks by the time they go back. That's kinda ridiculous.

Light, fluffy snow continuing here in Burke and the radar is looking lovely.

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not to be all “back in my day” like @mattie g or whoever, but I don’t recall getting 2 days off school for a 6” storm when I was a kid. #getoffmylawn

Nope...I know we didn't. Of course, back then we didn't wear seatbelts or bike helmets and we drank leaded paint. But I'm still here (though some of my friends didn't make it), so I'm not sure why kids these days have it so easy!

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If the Icon took a decent step at 19z, maybe others will follow and Gfs hold. 

Exactly. While the GFS has shown its bipolarity, it seems the other models have been taking their meds and are gently swinging in a good direction.

I don't need a HECS, nor am I looking for one. Just give me snow on snow...and let me be among the higher totals.

Just now, nj2va said:

Are you talking to yourself again Mattie?

It's a regular occurrence, though it does come off a little differently in text format.

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Kinda looks like things are trying to fill in down here, as well. Could be the start of the backend goodness.

Just quoting myself because I think I got this one right . The little "band" I was mentioning then blossomed and started dropping dendrites about 30 minute after this. Been snowing since - even moderately - and now the radar is filling in.

I frankly don't give a f*ck what the HRRR says. It's garbage. As Elsa once said: Let it f*cking snow!

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Some banding looks like it's trying to evolve along the northern tier.  Man, I hope I get some ULL love.

Kinda looks like things are trying to fill in down here, as well. Could be the start of the backend goodness.

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yep, great post, this event relies on the piece you circled. Have we been surprised before? Of course, but more times than not the GFS caves to other guidance. It feels annual that we get a fantasy event where the GFS does this. It’ll probably cave at 18z. I really, really hope I’m wrong

Ukie was a little closer today at 12z than at 00z last night, and while the Euro wasn't that great I thought it was also somewhat closer. We know there's a load of potential and there's reason to have a little optimism. We just need to see the Europeans move towards the North American crew by 12z tomorrow and we can feel even better.

That all said, I think we should be confident in our chances of seeing some accumulating snow this weekend!

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'm personally glad I stuck to my guns with 4-8" for MBY.  I was *really* tempted to go 6-10" after yesterday's 0z runs.  In the end, I think I'll end up close to 8" with the ULL snow.  So pretty spot on for MBY, although I know it's low-end most places elsewhere.  I think you'll get to 8" @mattie g.

I think we all got amped because the models juiced up as go time got closer. That 8" goal was pretty modest in my mind and I honestly was expecting more.

As for getting to 8", that would be amazing. The kids have had a great day and it looks wonderful out there, so it would be a sweet cap to the day (and give me a reason to have another drink or three this evening)!

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, I think that's all fair.  

I'm pretty underwhelmed and I think my perspective is off because it snowed 5" before I woke up and it was pinging by the time I measured. Picked up 1.75" since then, but aside from about 30 minutes of fluff, that part has been pretty pedestrian. All I need is 1.25" later to get to my 8" goal, but it doesn't feel like I'm actually close at all!

Measured another 0.75" from the light stuff in Burke, so that puts me at 6.75" total so far.

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Radar reallly lighting up over far NW WV and Pittsburgh. Hopeful that everyone gets another 2" - 4" on top of this as the sun sets.

Was about to say this. Really hoping it doesn't dry up too much in the mountains and we can pile up some evening fluff.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS for the period

That's actually pretty damn good. My guess is that there are nukes and whiffs that cancel each other out.

15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Fighting compaction at this point.  Not sure that I’ll pass 6” otg.

Wipe boards every 30 minutes and sum the (rounded up) measurements. Easy peasy.

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

UKIE attempting something CMC-like, not sure if it will turn the corner at all.

Energy gets buried in the Southwest. The northern stream energy races out in front and leaves the southern energy behind. We need that phase to happen for it to turn the corner.

That said, this is a little better than 00z, so there's that.

We've got the Ukie to bring us down to Earth first...

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. It has been an absolute squeeze job, and I'm trying to figure out why. It's like the climo has shifted or something so that we just don't do well enough in these west-east slider like systems...it's like it always favored south of me, and I don't ever remember another time where even I, not being as far north as you, got fringed this much. Ordinarily it's DC with temp/mixing issues...but since 2019 they haven't had that with these types of sytems. I will never trust a system like this again unless it shows mixing south of me. Heavy rates just don't get up here that way lately...smh

The timeframes people are talking about are so small in the overall scale of things that you can't put it down to climate shifting. Sometimes places have shit luck for a period or there's some sort of cycle we're going through. No way to know for sure.