mattie g

CMC has been north for the last few runs. This doesn’t look much different.

11/21: T - grauplets
11/22: T - SnowTV for an hour or so, followed by drizzle
12/1: T - on-and-off small snow showers for about an hour
12/24: T - some light sleet in the morning left a coating
1/3: 0.75” - squall/thundersnow
1/5-1/6: 9.0" - bumped a little based on local spotter reports
1/11: 1.0" - pretty little weekend thing
1/14: T - light snow shower late in the evening

Seasonal Total: 10.75"

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Just looking at the way the whole pattern evolves looping the h5 across guidance I think the second wave next week (the one the gfs is keying on) has the best chance to ride the coast north, but the first wave have the bigger upside in terms of snowfall for 95 (colder antecedent airmass). But fun times. The Sunday teaser is totally dependent on where the boundary sets up exactly and the track of that vort. It’s a narrow win zone so that won’t be nailed down either until the final 48-72 hours. 

Seems to me that, if the Sunday thing turns out, then that affects the ability of the next wave to turn the corner. Either way, we have quite a few shots coming up, which is pretty much all we can ask for!

Like others, had a pretty nice flizzard in Burke at about 9:45. Not much of a coating, but definitely enough to whiten the cartops.

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is awesome. I love being in the bullseye nine days out!

12 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

34 currently...certainly some melting today but still full coverage...can we make it two full weeks with snowpack?

We got into the upper 40s for a little bit, but the snowpack didn't take much of a hit. Now with the wind and temps in the mid 20s, it feels incredibly wintry again.

16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Snow melting makes us grumpy. I didn't go hiking today because I didn't want to see the melting going on. I'll go tomorrow lol. I've still got 97% coverage here. Only a couple steep south facing hills melted off.

Yeah. Besides the fully exposed south-facing lawns, everything in my neighborhood is still covered, including lots of rooftops. Still got a few inches of snow all over my yard and plenty on the roof.

52 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Considering the amount of shit I take it’s warranted .  Feel free to take credit if you have something to predict that comes out true and stays  that way 

Maybe, but there are better and more humble ways to beat your chest and claim victory.

Me? I don't know shit, so if I get something right it's by pure luck. That said...if my late-January triple phaser call were to work out, I'd be crowing from the rooftops.

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb

I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month 

Your humility is praiseworthy.

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

A 1pm temp of 11 here.   We take.  

Seems...overdone.

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Can’t wait for the NAM hour 84 play by plays!

Give me hourly HRRR updates or give me death!

Took a few pictures during a morning walk along the Liberty Bell Trail. Still deep snowcover, including packed snow along the whole trail. Probably take a bit of a hit today, but should still be pretty significant by this evening.

35 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice sunrise!

Noticed the same on this morning's pupwalk. Really pretty pinks with orange hues.

Currently 23 in Burke. Didn't realize it's supposed to get into the mid- to upper-40s today until I just checked wunderground. I'm guessing we'd be well into the 70s if not for the snowpack.

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If it weren't for the snowpack we'd be in the 60s today probably.

Aunt

Balls

Uncle

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

5.1 get it right 

I only just found out about 5.1. It’s the 5.6 that I’ve heard lots about…

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Did you know someone in the Shenandoah Valley only has 5” of snow?  

I didn’t, but I have heard that someone in Maryland only has 5.6”!

1 hour ago, mappy said:

5.1” here 

Wouldn’t have figured you were pretty much at the bottom of the list this year since you don’t bring it up in

every. f’ing. post.

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. 

Dude…you need to stop with this. You’ve been at this long enough to know that anything past 5-7 days is prone to huge swings, especially in a non-blocky pattern!

We're going to have plenty of chances coming up over the next month, and we won’t have confidence in most of them more than 3-4 days out. Let’s keep an eye on things but not invest one way or another!

Watching English FA Cup games on demand and one of the lower league clubs’ shirt sponsors is Fireball.

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Ain’t losing sleep over the gfs 3 days out. Where is my blizzard it had for last night/today? 

It had a blizzard for this sub for like 1.25 runs. The rest of the time it had essentially the same event that transpired.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We remember 2015 fondly with no hecs. I think if we get 2 more significant snow events (say a secs and MECS) this will be remembered as a full win. But your main point is valid. We have to score. And yes we “could” get unlucky and not get anymore snow.  But my point was about expectations. For years I’ve seen people trying to find some hope in a totally hopeless situation. Now we have a legit shot and some of those same people are like “meh”. 

Pretty much human nature. We don’t want bad things to happen, so we try to wish good things into existence and we don’t want to get carried away when things seem to be too good.

There’s also the whole PTSD thing from sucking pretty hard for pretty much the last eight years…

58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6-12” with more to come at the end 

…plenty more.

This is going to be fun and frustrating in equal measure to track for the next couple/few weeks!

Measured 1.0” on the dot at 8:00 am and nearby reports are 1.0-1.5”, still go with my measurement.

That was the low end of my expectations and I’m fine with that!

Just popped my head out when letting the dog out for a pee. Looks like we’ve had some rimed flakes in Burke, but that’s about it. You can see the individual flakes - nothing coated.

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

The map is a mess to say the least.

Man…thank goodness you were browbeaten into posting that! So useful!