mattie g

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I was just going to mention this is a pretty sick (or slick??) looking pattern at the end of the GFS.  Yeah, 384 hour ops and all but I've seen this showing up more out there in ops la-la land, which is nice to see!  And I like at the surface how there are some nice highs lined up in Canada on the east side of that PNA ridge.

Wave breaking to reinforce the -NAO and a pretty consistent 50/50. The ridging out west is really pretty, as well.

You could see the 12z GFS lining us up at about hour 300 for the hit that comes at around 348...right at the start of the real period of interest.

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For all the complaining you hear on social media, the NFL is probably stronger than ever. They’re going to do a gargantuan number in two weeks. 

https://apnews.com/article/nfl-playoffs-tv-ratings-bf435642324a34a69e6b258e033d249d#

I have no doubt that more casuals than ever will watch because of the Taylor Swift connection.

I won't be one. Plenty else to do on any given weekend!

15 hours ago, H2O said:

After 4 years my luck finally ran out. Got Covid. Feel like ass

That sucks. Just get some rest and take care of yourself however you normally do it. People like to give advice, but I feel like everyone knows how they best recover from viruses like this (especially now that COVID is endemic and hitting similarly to flu/cold).

Wife and I got it for the first time at the end of last January and it kicked my ass for a few days. We think we *might* have had it a few weeks ago (upon reflection after the fact), but it wasn't that bad so we never tested (oops).

Hope you feel better soon!

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Some decent winters here when MSP struggles

Here's a listing of the Top 6 lowest seasonal (July-June) snowfall totals at MSP Airport going back to 1938: 1) 1986-1987: 17.4" 2) 1967-1968: 17.5" 3) 1958-1959: 19.1" 4) 1980-1981: 21.1" 5) 1957-1958: 21.2" 6) 2011-2012: 22.3" So far this season, MSP has received 7.3" snow

That's insane.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Imo This gets less and less relevant the deeper into winter we get. There's always a lag anyway...something in Feb we may not see the effect of until March (a la 2018). I tune this out after awhile

You must have missed the part where fred says “hopefully extend or magnify the upcoming pattern change.”

10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I recall before the larger storm 5th-7th in Feb 2010 there was 7-10 in of snow around Jan 30-31; before that it had been mild with rain around Jan 26th. Then there was a third snowfall event around Feb 10th.  

You don’t say…

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

it happened in '94 when there was plenty of UHI at the time.  I'm sure it will happen again at some point.

Gonna need some deep snowpack. Just incredibly unlikely given all the factors at play.

14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I hope I'm alive when DCA hits -16°F.

We all know that's never happening at DCA. With how UHI-y that site is, we'd be lucky for it to get below zero. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

And its so very easy

You have no idea how hard the atmosphere is working for this!

Just now, vastateofmind said:

81, baby. Need to get my arse out there and doing some sort of exercise...

Might as well!

42 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

oh yeah all of this in aggregate is totally normal - great stuff!

Records are made to be broken.

Was a little toasty for my run this morning, but it was kind of a nice change.

10 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just looked that up. You may know, but I didn’t. That happened in China in 2018. All 15 on that bus died. Incredible that that little flimsy railing was all that was there.

Tragic, but not at *all* surprising.

I'm not well-versed enough to know just how good a look is. I mean...I know when something looks good, but just how much better can the one in WW's post above get?

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

TT shows about 1”…which I guess is fine since it’ll have been 82degrees just two days prior.

12/6: T
12/11: 1.25"
1/1: T
1/14: T
1/15-1/16: 4.00"
1/19: 4.00"

Total: 9.25"

By the end of the run, GEFS and GEPS have a low around the Aleutians with heights poking up towards the Arctic. Also higher heights starting to establish around and south of the Hudson Bay. GEPS has a nice split flow look, as well.

Just signs of things changing, if nothing else.

18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Really decent up under these streamers. Over 5 for the event. Over 7.5 snowpack. Pummelling pretty good. 

If you don't mind, please send some of that my way.

Interesting orientation of the returns out by Winchester. Main slug of moisture is moving ENE while those are pivoting SW.

59 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

God damn I wish I didn't have to see ignored users quoted posts.  Buzz kill.

It sucks.

I just wish folks would stop engaging with people who obviously post in bad faith. <shrug>

17 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I know @psuhoffman is kind of being a bit humorous and tongue-in-cheek with the "perfect track rainstorm" look.  But really, the pattern and flow at that time is horrible.  It's not like it's a marginal or halfway decent look yet we're still getting screwed, where previous years we'd have fared better.  We wouldn't far well in ANY year with that pattern, I believe.

It's just a troll job.

Just got back from my run/walk on the trail through the woods. Pretty awesome to be out there with the snow falling all around...

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Its that goddamn cloud angle again.  

I've been stuck at 2.5" as well.  Getting some fatties right now but would need this to keep going to offset compaction.  Its nice to see it snow so I'm happy as hell.  

2.5" already beat what i expected out of this storm

There's an easy fix for that - swipe and measure every hour.

Heading out for a jebrun on the Liberty Bell Trail!