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mattie g

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Posts posted by mattie g

  1. 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    @psuhoffman has a 10 page thesis ready for posting in October 

    tl;dr

    75% of our winters suck, and even years with analogs to good winters in the past would suck now given AGW. Therefore, there's no reason to think we'll ever have a good winter again.

  2. 42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    The double problem this year is even if ENSO can get overcome by other factors, which can happen under certain circumstances, most/all of the other indicators are also in unfavorable states: PDO, QBO, solar activity, etc. Maybe Siberian snowcover will save us!?!?

    #sai4lyfe

  3. 12 hours ago, George001 said:

    If Nina becomes more east based the winter could be great. I know things don’t look good right now but it’s too early to write a big winter off, still a lot of time for things to change. Doesnt NYC and the northern mid Atlantic do well in ninas? I like the look of things for my area but if I’m remembering correctly even NYC does well in weak and moderate ninas.

    The problem is that we're not the northern Mid-Atlantic (or at least 95% of us aren't). If we assume ENSO as the only variable, then we're almost certain to get the suck down here this year.

  4. Honestly shocked at the decent downpour we had just before dinner time. Not sure how much we ended with, but had to be pretty close to 0.5”.

    Ended with a pretty sweet double rainbow:

    369A5C52-FC95-4BBC-A404-C5782541C3D9.thumb.jpeg.675bd21cff8de85d7cf942eea84f3b5b.jpeg

    • Like 9
  5. Curious how much rain folks south of Fredericksburg or thereabouts ended up with. Promising start to the day saw everything happen south of us, and there were returns down there for hours.

  6. 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

    East component to light breezes so won’t get 95-99 today, more like 88-93 so just not quite enough juice max to get us widespread flooding rains. 

    Not sure about that. The radar is the proverbial Christmas Tree right now with boundaries all over the place. I think we see constant pulsing and reforming of storms for quite some time this afternoon/evening with lots of 2-3" reports.

  7. 36 minutes ago, Scuddz said:

    Having a violent coughing fit as soon as you take your first sip of coffee is a shit way to start the day. RIP curtains....

    That's awesome. :lol:

    I once kicked a full glass of red wine all over a wall and curtains in an old apartment. My now wife and I were eating on the floor (because I didn't have a table), then I got up to use the bathroom and just punted the f*cking thing across the room. Place looked like a GD murder scene.

    • Haha 2
  8. 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    Beyond the moist and damp next 4-5 days, models have been teasing a respectable FROPA late next week for a September preview. Euro seems least enthused, but has hinted at it periodically. But EPS and GEFS both show a trough swing through.

    But will the frontal passage be VIOLENT?!

  9. 4 minutes ago, H2O said:

    Lots of trees down in my hood this morning. 20 min drive and saw 4-5 houses damaged, branches all the vet the place and tons to f leaves and sticks. One of the worst wind storms in many years. 

    Damn - that's crazy.

    We definitely had some decent wind (and pea-sized hail) when our first cell blew up almost overhead, but no damage.

  10. 36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

    Always interesting to check the rain gage after what appeared to be heavy rain for several hours only to see a number lower than you thought or expected. Yesterday poured for hours and ended up with .90 but it felt like much more. 

    I always find that kind of annoying, though there can always be a surprise in the other direction, as well.

    We missed a lot of the action early on, but when it did rain it came down in buckets. Waiting for the local CoCoRaHs to update...

  11. 48 minutes ago, mappy said:

    yeah, that's what i am going to do. just work until the laptop dies. or power comes back. too much to do to take the day off

    That's a veteran move right there! :lol:

  12. 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    Round about 0.7” so far. Another batch inbound. Exceeds the total since early July. 

    Glad to hear you’re not at a rainfall deficit for another few days!

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2
  13. 10 minutes ago, yoda said:

    thundering here again

    No thunder, but nice rains again now.

    Looking forward to getting my gutters realigned and micro mesh gutter guards put on this weekend!

    • Like 1
  14. ^ was a few hours ago. Now I’m waiting impatiently for another round of storms, but I’m feeling slightly negative about my chances this late in the evening. Just have a feeling the cells are going to fizzle…

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