mattie g

It's getting spicy in that long-range thread. I kind of hope we fail just to see the utter chaos that would ensue were that to happen.

23 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Man this feels like perhaps the longest lead in to any potential winter weather that i can remember. If for some reason we don't score well during the favorable period or if it starts to fall apart on the models then holy yikes is there going to be some broken souls in here. I bet the board loses several posters forever if that happens I can think of 5 that i'm hoping for

I don't even know WTF I'm supposed to be looking/rooting for at this point. And when you consider how different the GFS is upstairs than the Canadian and Euro are, it just confuses me even more.

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Rates rates rates is the name of the game around here once we get past mid-Feb.  Temps are gonna be marginal no matter how you slice it.

Temps won't always be marginal later in the season. There's an impressive cold push at this time, so as long as the timing is decent it's going to snow and then it'll get cold.

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah jettison this 'threat' from this thread. Detracting from all the fapping over epic h5 looks.

February 20 - March 20, 2024: The Fappening.

I'm opening the 2024 thread in the next week or two. I know you're all ready to plant, mow, and harvest!

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

La nina isn't it? And descending solar, and another factor someone pointed out earlier..not great for snow chances. Haven't heard anything different...that's why I've been keying in on this winter hoping it delivers above average.

Your only real knowledge is parroting what other people say, which isn't all that uncommon among folks on this board (me included), but you so often interpret this information incorrectly.

Please stop shitting up the thread with your worries about next year - we have 4-6 weeks of potential coming up to end the season. Why don't we just focus on that?

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.  

I’m just wondering what the barometric pressure difference is between Erie and Appomattox. When we know that, we can make an informed call about what might happen two weeks from now.

But seriously…this is making us all pretty pumped for good reason. We’re staring down the barrel of a loaded pattern in prime-ish climo, so let’s fucking go for it and end this Nino with a bang.

9 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Does "Woof woof aleet aleet" mean it's gon' snow?

Nope. Just means that, as of today, we have as good a chance at a big snow as we’ve had in years.

Let’s revel in that for now!

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I know how to swim.

lol, I'm black. No I don't.  Let me not perpetuate that stereotype.  I know about 5000 black people and at least 2 know how to swim.  Doing it up.

Anyway, we tracking in 7 days, or what?

One of the best swimmers on our team, Terrence, is black. Jamaican family...he's like a bobsledder.

We'll be tracking in no time. The back of the pattern will be showing up in the next couple weeks, so gotta get started tracking soon.

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

May I recommend swimming, its running without the joint damage

Long-distance swimming is just so boring, though. My wife swims three days per week, but I just can't do it.

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm making popcorn to see who cracks first on the potential pattern change. Easy money is on Ji but don't underestimate someone like Heisy or Terpeast getting jumpy 

Not addressing your post at hand, per se, but I just want to say that EJ has become one of the worst posters on this board.

2 hours ago, snowfan said:

Fire up the grills and open the pools for Super Bowl Sunday.

 

Looks like a great day to turn off the TV and get outside.

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

CWG calling for above average temps and near average snow for February

Dang. They really know their stuff!

An NFL player sitting in a cowcar aisle seat? That makes the story even more impressive!

^

I was about to post about the NAO on the 12z GEPS. It's an absolute beast of a block and has a beauty of a corresponding EPO/PNA ridge. Really starts getting established on/around the 13th and is a pig by the 17th (hour 384). GEFS is about 36-48 hours behind but follows the same progression.

7 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

I suspect we will start seeing posts saying the gfs op at 300 hours shows 50 degrees or the 540 line on the op is in Toronto at hr 384

And what if Terps prediction of 9 cutters before the pattern change is accurate? 

Is that thicknesses or heights?

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Read the whole thread. It’s always uplifting to hear stories about other people stepping up to help others. 

I'm sure it's a heartwarming read, but it's requiring a login to see the other three tweets. Not gonna do it!

1 hour ago, paulythegun said:

Can somebody tell me the exact moment when the wave breaks? I'm very excited for the wave to break. Also, when does the snow pattern make landfall? Have we sampled it yet? What about 06z/18z? Do we need more balloons?

I’m not above a little banter in the analysis threads, but I feel the need to point out that this post sucks.

46 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The snow means are horrible the next 15 days on all the ensembles.  I guess we need "wave breaks" and cooling for our last gasp of winter.  Hope to see an uptick by next weekend.  WB 12Z EPS.

Do better, man. Seriously.

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well, this is where we're at so far today. absolutely stellar looks from the GEFS and GEPS, and everything is moving forward in time

Amazing agreement at that range.

I prefer to GEFS look a little more with the placement of the lower heights along the eastern seaboard, but I wouldn't kick the GEPS out of bed.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

“Wave breaking” has easily won the 2023-2024 buzzword of the year award.

You use it, you sound smart.

I'm leaning into (barf) the phrase.

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

DC’s climate these days is basically the same as Brownsville

So then 384 is the same as congrats Charlotte?

40s and cloudy.

Hate.

At 384...congrats northern 1/3 of Old Mexico!

22 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You could see the 12z GFS lining us up at about hour 300 for the hit that comes at around 348...right at the start of the real period of interest.

There's northern energy swinging around the backside of that trough that snows on us that comes fairly close to phasing in. With the NAO and 50/50 maybe that would work...even at the beginning of the pattern?