mattie g

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder how much further NW the mix line will be this winter from that warmer sea water.

It'll only matter if we get a storm that brings in flow off the ocean. If we don't have much of a STJ, then how many storms of that ilk can we really expect?

Bitching about dryness will commence within two days.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Just keep in mind over the years I’ve busted high more than low with my seasonal forecasts.  The last time I was taking heat for being a huge deb the whole sub ended up with single digit snow and many places got a total goose egg. I truly honestly hope this time it blows up in my fave and we get buried and you all can make fun of me. 

You know we're just bustin' stones.

The thing is...we know that we suck hard at snow, so we need some level of hopes and dreams to keep us going through the season, though deep down inside we all know that those hopes and dreams are highly likely to morph into nightmares come January. Just let us sleep gently until Freddie Krueger pops in for a visit!

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How many times in recorded history has that happened?  

Figured I'd put this here instead of mucking up the tropical thread!

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

If August does draw to a close Wednesday without a single named storm forming, it will be the first empty August since 1997.  Source: Washington Post.

The thing is, if this had been a very active season to this point with a few really strong systems, everyone would be taking about how AGW is contributing to an increase in that kind of extreme weather. Now...I'm not at all arguing against AGW, but I suppose it's just more me being annoyed that individual storms or seasons get attributed to AGW, but if there's a lack of extreme weather then there's crickets. I'd actually like to see more discussion of the effects of AGW on weather over longer timescales, and how individual events shouldn't necessarily be attributed to those effects.

Also...repeat of 1997-1998 winter incoming? I guess not, what with that having been a super Nino and all. And even that goes to show that a single index isn't the be-all and end-all of seasonal forecasting .

14 hours ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Some solid straitforming going on across DC, HOCO, and MOCO

It rained for over an hour here, but it was just some pretty light stuff that dropped about 0.10". Some pretty decent booms though.

Disappointing, but...eh.

Would have been nice today to get some nice stratiform rains after the line.

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

This last hot stretch is clinching a very slightly above normal August and summer.  A lack of big heat is the saving grace.

Or just a pretty average summer in general was the saving grace. lol

19 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

In my opinion teleconnection indicators are worthless if the system is compromised by warming air temperatures and warming water temperatures over time and this process may also be speeding up a bit. 

 

On a side note, Atlantic City NJ water temps August 1st was 58 degrees at the beaches last 24 hours we have seen a peak to 83.4 degrees these are just wild swings overall the water is warming which may cause teleconnections to be way off. 

Water temps in the 80s is silly high for the South Jersey beaches, but having temps under 60 in peak summer is pretty common. It's caused by upwelling during relatively prolonged southerly winds. The rapid increase in temps is uncommon, but is caused by downwelling on more northerly winds - it's less common because consistent northerly winds are uncommon in summer. The Coriolis effect causes the water to move in a 90-degree angle to the right of the wind direction, which is why you get south winds moving warm water offshore that gets replaced by cold water from underneath. Warm surface water moves from offshore and displaces the cool water nearer land on those northerly winds.

Basically, these are very localized temp swings that are caused solely by local winds.

Guarantee the water about 5-10 miles off the coast was nice and warm while they were wearing hoodies on the beach.

On 8/23/2022 at 9:31 AM, IronTy said:

Chemtrails.  Deep state seeding clouds and spreading vax in the air....

HAARP

I'm in San Juan, PR this week, and just got done an afternoon downpour. Pretty amazing how much water can fall from the sky in these parts.

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Aliens

HAARP

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

The school system is not the parent. The parent has the say if their child/children goes to school. If they feel like it is not safe, they can drive them or hold them home for that day.  Just because the school is open when there is inclement weather, doesn’t mean you have to send them. 

Tell that to someone just itching to blame an accident - whether a bus accident or a parent driving a kid to school - on a school district's decision to open schools on a marginal snow day.

I hear what you're saying and I agree with you, but the reality is that a school district and/or the district administrators will be strung up (metaphorically speaking, of course) if they make a decision that could potentially be viewed as contributing to some unfortunate event.

Now let's take the other side. You have parents who don't want to be inconvenienced by school closings and feel that the schools should be open so they can have the teachers play babysitters for the day. Those people suck, but that's another constituency you need to answer to, so you have to take that all into account and make the best decision possible each time there's an inclement weather day.

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

One huge issue with school calendars is the insane number of closures. Agree or disagree, that did not happen years ago. In 2010, on Ground Hog day, it snowed 6” that night. Winchester City schools were on a regular schedule the next day. Fast forward 7 years and we were missing school because of a forecast of snow or even as little as a dusting. With the virtual capability now, there is no excuse for a traditional snow day. Set your calendar and follow it and you could start after Labor Day and finish by the first of June. 

That assumes that all kids have the same access to the software, hardware, and internet needed to be virtual on short notice. Not only that, but if it did become a reality, then it would take the fun out of a snow day.

It's a tricky situation because of the litigiousness of society nowadays. School districts are always going to be looking over their shoulders to make sure there won't be some sort of legal action - threatened or real - based on a decision they made to send kids to school.

I heard that Fairfax County is considering going to a hours-based school calendar and less a days-based one. I guess the school days are already long enough so that they could reduce the number of days and still meet some sort of necessary quota for the amount of time the kids are in school. It might give the kids an extra week or so, whether that's used for summer break or something else during the regular school year.

19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wut? That seems insanely early.

That is early for northeastern schools. I grew up going back after Labor Day, and my nieces and nephews still do the same. I also know lots of folks throughout the Northeast whose kids go back in September.

What gets me is the schools down south that go back before August 10!

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

What other choice is there other than letting it play out?

The MA lowlands generally suck at snow regardless of ENSO state. There are many paths to failure. Our 'good' winters occur when most of the indices are favorably aligned, and we get plenty of luck with small scale features and timing. It's always a struggle, and likely more so now and going forward.

I don't know why anyone engages with these posts. It's always the same response, no matter the reasoning or logic behind the posts being made.

Hints of a hurricane are showing up in long-range forecast models, but experts call it a 'fantasy storm'

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/weather/atlantic-hurricane-fantasy-forecast-wxn/

You people are f’ing miserable.

^ = Bait

17 minutes ago, IronTy said:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B0007LQ3RQ?psc=1&ref=ppx_pop_mob_b_asin_title

 

I've had one of these for a couple years now and I can confirm it is 100% squirrel proof.  They can't solve it despite hours of trying.  

 

That's a huge feeder. I have a 1.3-lb capacity feeder that works great. Squirrels have never ben able to feed from it. They just eat the seeds that fall to the ground.

47 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Just went through a period of sleet on Fairfax County Parkway!

I also love when rain turns to hail in winter. That means the flip to snow is about to happen!

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

It's not even winter yet and we're already in peak MA winter form in this thread.  Should be a doozy of a year!

Fine...you can cover your eyes and close your ears all you want, but it doesn't change the fact that everything looks like sh*t right now!

Oh...you weren't talking about the weather.

6 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Sounds like it is time to harvest squirrels then...

Believe me when I tell you that I've been fantasizing for years about getting a pellet gun and picking them off from my bedroom window, which overlooks my garden. This year I've been closer than ever to doing it, but I don't think the wife would go for it...and not sure I have the stomach to actually go through with it!

14 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m not desperate for rain, but 0.30” from this radar 40 minutes ago feels like a minor letdown.

Kind of how I felt. You can see on your image that I was in a hole in the precip for quite some time until it all converged. Probably didn't get much more yesterday than we did on Tuesday, but that's fine - not  like we needed it.

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman has a 10 page thesis ready for posting in October 

tl;dr

75% of our winters suck, and even years with analogs to good winters in the past would suck now given AGW. Therefore, there's no reason to think we'll ever have a good winter again.