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mattie g

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Posts posted by mattie g

  1. 16 hours ago, CAPE said:

    EPO/WPO driven, and we threaded the needle many times. It can work, but a pattern like that can just as easily be a cold/dry warm/wet deal too. Many ways to lose here, even with the holy grail of mod/strong Nino with strong stj, and HL blocking- although that's our best bet for above avg snow until proven otherwise. 

    For sure. The point we were making (or at least I was making) is that ringing the death knell for a winter based on one or a few teleconnections not lining up perfectly is silly. It might take some luck, but just because X, Y, and Z aren't in their prime state doesn't mean we're going to suck eggs all winter long.

    • Like 1
  2. 1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

    Low 46. Forgot to turn on the heating before bed, and it was 69 in the house this morning.


    We set the AC to 67 at night in the summer. Heat is at 62 in winter. I turned off the unit last night and it was a comfy 66 overnight!

    • Like 1
  3. I like it, @WxUSAF!

    Wife and I have been debating putting in a native bed in one section of our front that doesn't have much grass and could really use some building up. Not sure we'll get to it this year, though, since we have a local nursery coming by today to consult on professionally doing our backyard landscaping. Might be a bit much to do two decent landscaping projects at once. If not this year, then definitely next year...

    • Like 1
  4. My parents have a place a little NW of Tampa, which might well float away in a few days. They're on their way back up north right now, so they're relying on their neighbor for updates.

    ICON wants to smoke MBY overnight Sunday-Monday. Curious to see what the 12z varsity quite has to say.

    • Like 2
  5. 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    High solar flux isn't always a death knell for winter...2013-2014 was high solar. There are just so many factors.....

    But if every single teleconnection isn't in its prime state or if the sun isn't dead or if ACE is high or if basically not everything is perfect then we're screwed.

  6. 22 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

    NYC Subforum a few well known predictors.  I don't want to call people out by name.  The original forecast was for a below average snowfall winter but it turned on a dime after Christmas here.

    OK...sounded like you were referring to people in here.

    We're generally a pretty dour bunch when it comes to winter, so it would have surprised me if someone from here would think a brutal winter would be a viable analog for us. :lol:

    • Haha 1
  7. 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

    People were using winters from the 1910s as analogs for 2010-11 lol

    The 2010-11 la nina was pretty amazing.  Granted la ninas that come after el ninos tend to be very good.

    1995-96 comes to mind too.

    But those should not be analogs for this winter, this isn't a la nina after an el nino lol.

    Maybe try something like 2000-01 instead?  That was a third year la nina.

    Who was using winters from over 100 years ago as analogs?

  8. 56 minutes ago, IronTy said:

    With those DFNs for the entire winter 1917-1918 must've been a beast of a winter.   

    A rare year in which DC got snow in November and ended up with a good winter overall. Looks like it was pretty well frontloaded and then got pretty mild come early February, which I think a lot of folks around here would be happy with.

    Nov: 2.5"
    Dec: 6.8"
    Jan: 22.6"
    Feb: 1.5"
    Mar: 0.0"

    • Like 3
  9. 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

    I much prefer raised beds because you can control the soil chemistry, and because of the beds being elevated they fare a bit better during wet periods.

    Same. I love having raised beds. I built mine about four years ago and have had great results with them.

    I try not to get too bogged down in my gardening. I've got great soil after having been working and amending it for about 10 years or so, and when I built the beds I made sure to fill them with some of that good soil I'd be working on in the years prior. The beds help keep all the good stuff where it needs to be and, like you said, keep them generally better off during anomalous periods of wet (or dry).

  10. Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

    Our raised beds are cooling off. Ground temp sensor has temps in the mid 70s and dropping by about 1-2 degrees each week. 

    I've got raised beds and pots, as well. I just go by how the plants look and the general health of any of the fruits and vegetables. I've honestly not had any issues other some standard diseases in the past, and without so much as a spot of fungal issues or the like this year I'm just going to let them run.

    I'll check soil temps early in the season when I direct sow spring crops, but otherwise I don't bother. To each their own, I suppose. I just like to keep my garden going for as long as it's willing to keep producing for me!

  11. 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

    Garden gets shut down this weekend. Save a few eggplants, everything is done.

    I keep mine going as long as possible, and especially so this year because of all the tomatoes I lost to squirrels. I have quite a few lbs of tomatoes still on the vine and haven't had ANY disease issues with the plants so far. I have plenty of jalapenos going and my basil is out of control, as well.

    I'll probably keep the plants up until at least the middle of October, assuming no random early frost.

    • Like 1
  12. 1 hour ago, RIC_WX said:

    Thanks for sharing and good luck with your outlook.

    I am perplexed somewhat with the 2002 primary analog given the precipitation patterns from that era vs. today with respect to occurant weather.  Also noteworthy on the mild December call as it seems to be at odds with the early consensus forecasts.

    I suspect you are counting on late season snowfall, potentially even in March to achieve these totals?  A +1 December isn’t getting it done and a cold January would be suppressed it would seem.

    But just because a month is a degree above normal doesn't necessarily mean that the whole month will be above normal. Perhaps the first half of the month is slightly above normal, but the second is below. For December, that could absolutely work for us, and it wouldn't go that far against the general consensus forecasts at this time.

    A -3 to -5 month would suggest cold throughout, so I agree that suppression would be a legitimate concern in a January with that kind of cold.

    How I read this forecast is a milder than normal beginning of December, with it then going cold for the second half. January would remain quite cold (and possibly dry) throughout the month, with February starting cold. As the pattern relaxes in the beginning of February, we get legitimate snow chances as February "milds up." We could flip to colder than normal in March with a couple shots at snow until climo rules us out of the game.

    Of course, this is me projecting, but I could see how a forecast like this could play out in the manner I'm suggesting.

    • Like 2
  13. January at -3 to -5 is pretty bold, but if that's what your analogs are saying, then best of luck on it!

    14-18" of snow is a little below normal for most, but not terribly much so. Wouldn't be a great season by any stretch, but certainly not a complete dud.

  14. 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

    My guess is one of you guys lives on the other side of the tracks....beware :hurrbear:

    Himmm...I guess I'd be considered on the "wrong side" since the houses here are 15-20 years older. Also got some shifty folk in these parts...

    • Haha 1
  15. 13 hours ago, jbakerman said:

    1.27 in Burke out of that first line. 

    Absolute deluge for about 20-30 minutes or so, with decent rains on either end.

    Closest CoCoRaHs says 0.73", but the SE edge of that one cell that smacked us was really lit up on radar and rolled right over me. Where generally in Burke are you? I'm close to the Rolling Road VRE.

  16. 3 hours ago, kgottwald said:

    One, maybe 1 1/2, nice days and then back to the damn humidity. Why can't it just leave until next July???

    I'm not really sure what you're complaining about. The air tends to get a little more moist when there's rain in the forecast.

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