mattie g

Me while I watch that backbuilding and banding setting up over me...

Best rates in Burke since I woke up. Not ripping, but it's really nice.

View out my home office window ain't half bad (don't mind the mildew on the neighbors' house ).

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

nice flake-age again.   This is great

No shit, man. It's awesome.

Planning an early happy hour with the neighborhood crew at our house. Figure the snow will likely be over by then and will roll out the solo stove to hang out!

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Why is it that when I see a snow plow clearing streets that I becoming temporarily inconsolable 

It's the worst. Just one reason to love living on a cul-de-sac in a relatively small neighborhood - plows only come by well after everything else has been scraped.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I was bitching too earlier, but @Bob Chill seems to be right so far...it's back building for us

We just tend to do well with this kind of thing.

This is just *the* perfect winter day!

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It beefed up again...

Beautiful fluffy dendrites now.

So awesome.

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Band seems to have weakened a little on approach - but flake size and intensity have picked up.

It beefed up again...

14 minutes ago, das said:

If we can't get it done this year, then all of the forcing mechanisms and associated indices we've come to trust over the last 30 years will need to be normalized to whatever this new normal is.

Expecting a HECS every time there's a favorable Nino seems a bit of a stretch, but I guess it's go big or go home.

Small flakes and very light snow in Burke right now.

Nice to see that banding/blobbing/building directly to the west of me.

Fun little storm!

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm all in on my extra 1.5" overnight from the streamer on the HRRR

The 3km is really close with that streamer, as well!

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We need to do this whole "forecast snow amounts double or triple in the final 24 hours before storm start" thing before our February HECS

I just want a long-tracker that we can *all* feel comfortable watching unfold.

8", 12", 15", whatever...we need to strike this hot Nino iron and make the most of it in prime climo!

59 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

2.5” on 0.21” precip.  And more importantly, up to 5” on the ground, which makes up for any compaction/melting from the last storm.

Same...2.5" here in Burke. I was pretty surprised to see that much new accumulation when I measured at 7:00, but I won't complain

We're perilously on the southern edge of the current radar returns and what the meso guidance shows happening through the day,, but hopefully we can hold on!

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Perhaps some of that reaching the ground

Greens in my corner of Burke are not resulting in any precip on the ground.

24 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I love backbuilding

I often recall a comment you made years ago about how we always end well because we backbuild as storms pull away.

I feel like it’s just one of those things we do here, and it’s almost always an extra couple hours of unexpected snowfall, even if generally light.

31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

woah

My Dad texted me earlier and said that there could be a Norlun trough that would drop 2-3”/hr rates along the Jersey Shore (that’s where they live most of the year, but they’re in Florida right now)

I responded with “have you seen the latest HRRRDRRR, old man?!”

34 minutes ago, yoda said:

Fairfax County Schools are CLOSED tomorrrow

I'm fine with it. I heard we torch for the rest of the winter, so let the kids enjoy it while they can!

32F with clouds in Burke. Wunderground is trying to tell me there's a snow shower right now.

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a hold. Vort passes south of us, qpf seems similar if not a hair less

I'm not seeing less QPF than 12z. It's not too different, but it is a bit more according to TT.

27 minutes ago, H2O said:

I'm not in the blue.  Fuck this storm.  Its like it knows where I live

Might as well get Ellinwood to paint you in the pale grey right now.

1 hour ago, paxpatriot said:

Marginal temps where? Northern tier lows will be in the low 20's overnight (high teens in the Catoctins) with snow beginning around 3am and with snow pack on the ground. If that's marginal, we're all in a lot of trouble.

It's already been established that 28F in 2024 is more marginal than 28F was in 1974, so just accept it and move on.

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

When is the last time a vort shifted souther for us?  I’m not trying to a wet blanket i swear, but NAM is smoking herb laced with something. It’s just such a radical change. 

It's delivering huge bumps of copium to all on this board right now, and not one of us is going to turn it down. The question is whether the GFS brings news that the NAM's goods were laced with fentanyl or if it was pure.

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

A few weeks ago they were showing a mid-month relax/warmer pattern. And yet, here we are this week. 

Don’t have any confidence in LR beyond 1 week to 10 days. 

Exactly. I think we get too hung up on the details of long-range looks during a very specific period when we should take all guidance across time as a general guide.

As always, the look for any week from any model run could hit perfectly, but that doesn't mean that the model was necessarily "right" since it's likely the look it gave was different on a previous or subsequent run.

It was 10F in my corner of Burke when I checked at about 8:00 this morning, so I think it's fair to assume it may have dipped *just* below that.

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm gonna wait, but there SEEMS to be some positive changes.  I'll lean conservative right now

I want to extrapolate the f*ck out of a perfect vort pass.

4 hours ago, mattie g said:

I thought the 12z was a bit more consolidated around the Lakes and actually dug some more. I might be wrong, but if that had gone out about 6-12 more hours it may have looked halfway decent.

Extrapolated NAM leading the way!

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I wouldn't toss it yet.  It did kinda lead the way with yesterday.  But it is 84 hours and we still have the rest of 12z models to see if they move that way

I thought the 12z was a bit more consolidated around the Lakes and actually dug some more. I might be wrong, but if that had gone out about 6-12 more hours it may have looked halfway decent.