mattie g

14 hours ago, Ellinwood said:

Why are people posting 10:1 maps for this storm it's a complete waste of time and energy to even open it on your browser.

Just now, MN Transplant said:

If only we had that track in Jan/Feb…

If only there weren't a Low in the Lakes.

43 minutes ago, nj2va said:

12z Euro

Looks promising.

52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol. If you don’t see danger in these maps then I guess rock on. I’m just commenting on the map shown. 10 day maps are useless.

 

But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold.

There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo.

I mentioned this in the banter thread because I really don't know anything, but I'll throw it out here.

If you check the last couple days of runs, you'll that the low pops up to the north of Lake Superior. As that thing has deepened and shifted ever so slightly, our thermals have worsened. Not saying that's the only thing that's going wrong, but it can't be coincidental.

12/6: T
12/11: 1.25" - Calling it that since the closest trained spotter was at 1.4" and I log in 0.25" increments and didn't want to round up.
1/1: T

33 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

My wife breathlessly reported to me this past Sun/Mon (based on what the media was feeding her) on a "major winter storm" incoming for NoVA this weekend. I just grinned at her and said, "give it time...you'll take your 33 and rain on Sat and enjoy it."   She scoffed, I shrugged.

Knowing that I'd get much closer to a realistic forecast discussion here, I forced myself to wait until late last evening to check in for some closer-to-showtime truth. Some good analyses as always, and the usual few bouts of back/forth sniping -- likely borne out of frustration with a retreating rain/snow line.

My LOL "gut" forecast shared with my wife was correct, at least for SE FfxCo. Maybe we'll get an hour of snow TV on Sat, but whatever. A decade or more ago, I'd be one of the folks here having a meltdown...but I just can't get upset about this stuff anymore.

Lots of talk about the storm and the rain/snow line among the parents at the bus stop the last two days. I've just been telling people to hold off to see where things were come today...and here we are.

I'll say this...it feels like every time we've had a modicum of a threat in the last couple/few years (not counting January 2022), a low pops up somewhere in the Great Lakes region. Our thermals get wrecked and we're done for. Every. Single. Time.

I know that atmospheric physics is much more complicated than that one thing, but it's just too noticeable...and it's happening again with this storm. That Low that has been showing up near Lake Superior over the 36 hours or so of model runs, and as that thing has deepened just a little and edged ever closer to the Lakes, our thermals have gone to shit. Most of us were pretty close to the R/S line for many of these runs, but once that thing showed up where it did, we were done for.

After going to Wisp last week, my wife was like "That's it! We need to buy a house out here."

Darling...that sounds like a wonderful idea, but

29 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

I would just like to flag that my cabin is not available this weekend BECAUSE I WILL BE THERE!


.

That's a gorgeous place!

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It was over for me yesterday at 12z. For areas SE of the Fall line it frozen potential was mostly dependent on the stronger confluence from that NS energy moving eastward into the 50-50 region, just as the wave was approaching. That proved to be a timing error on the GFS. With that shifting eastward sooner, there was really nothing to keep the wave from tracking further north and the flow from turning southeasterly out in front.

Makes sense as you describe it. While I don't have a ton of leeway in marginal situations, you guys on that side of the bay have even less. Last night's runs definitely got me feeling good - it felt like we had turned things around across the board - but today has almost certainly proven that optimism to be misplaced.

Just sucks, but I suppose we move on.

2 minutes ago, Darkstorm said:

Reaper has opening at his Days Inn location. 

I'm certainly not giving up on winter or anything, but I feel like the writing may well be on the wall for MBY for this event.

29 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

It's hilarious how one model run can screw up people's mood. What happened to the 3 different scenarios? Are we locked into this one now from the euro?

After the positive vibes from the 0z runs, 6z and 12z have me starting to creep towards the exit door.

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

2” of rain just east of DC.  I’m ignoring this one.

Seems a *bit* overdone for such a fast mover, but man...being right on this R/S line is leaving me with few to no fingernails already.

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dear lord that’s a brutal gradient. Going to be riots if that plays out. 

Per the CMC on TT, it f'ing pours IMBY on Saturday evening at probably 34 degrees.

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Whoever is skirting that rain/snow line is gonna end up happy in the end.

I've been on that line for virtually every model run - whether on one side or the other - for the last 36 hours. I've been on the wrong side slightly more often, so I'm more than a little twitchy.

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Alright my math teacher is making me get up in front of the class and present about the weekend storm, anyone have any idea on what to say because all I got right now is that there are currently 3 scenarios (strong storm but too warm EURO/ICON, strong storm and cold RGEM/CMC, weak and cold/weak and warm GFS/NAM) and there no way to know which one will happen. I have till 11:08 to prepare my statement... 

"I'll tell you more on Friday"

One life lesson: "I don't know" is a perfectly valid answer to many questions.

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM is a hot mess. Disaster run.

Looking forward to my drizzly Saturday evening.

NAM at 84...lol.

I know a lot of folks on here love when the sun is dead and it's gray and chilly, but once we get into the new year, I really do start looking forward to the increase in sunlight each day.

The sign leading out of my neighborhood now says "Happy New Year! Think warm. [Pool] opening day on 5/25!"

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

What impresses me about the gfs is it’s rock steady consistency 

It's not just the GFS that's had these little blips.

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

It's quite possible it may be sunny on Saturday now

This storm sucks

I thought about leaving the Christmas lights up until Sunday, so I take my part of the blame for this fiasco.

As it is, they're staying up until I can take them down in the pouring rain on Saturday.

Just now, nj2va said:

You forgot worrying about a new vort that popped out of nowhere in the SW USA thousands of miles away that is ruining snow in the mid-atl.

Ooooh...that's a good one. But of course we should have seen that coming since this whole thing was fraught with the danger of it being a big rainer!

Just now, nj2va said:

Are we still worried about suppression?

I'll worry about that until we're 24 hours out.

I'll also worry about a primary running up into Ohio until 24 hours out.

...and a wound-up, tucked bomb that pulls in tropical air off the Gulf Stream and a weak, strung-out POS that drizzles into 39-degree air. I'm sure there are other worries, but I'm kind of tired of thinking about them now.