mattie g

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

.5-.8 qpf falls south to north before we lose the mid levels on that scenario. 

Yeah…you can tell we score at least something there. I hate flipping (with a f’ing passion), but we ride the line and accept what happens.

It’s just really neat to see the obvious CAD on a view of the entire continent. Super geeky.

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

.

That CAD signal is honestly pretty f’ing cool.

35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Fuck yo couch!!

No political posts!

44 minutes ago, high risk said:

Looking at the RAP with Kuchera ratios for a snow event is like eating an entire stick of butter when you want a modest snack and then washing it down with a glass of canola oil.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

It’s a frikin glacier here. Which is amazing. Logged on and saw 81 new replies in the past 2 hours. We are Snow weenies of the highest order man....

61 of which were reminiscing about a busted forecast from 24 years ago…

Interesting perspective on the school closings:

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

I am a high school teacher.  When dealing with public education, one needs to be aware that some parents don’t own cars or have reliable transportation and/or a work schedule that allows them to drive their kids to school.  So, it isn’t always up to parents to dictate the transportation method.

Thus, the bus is the only option for many students to get to school.  I am glad the school divisions are conservative and err on the side of safety since parents would rather school be canceled than have their kids in a bus accident.

19 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

lol DCA hit 32F.

Why lol?

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gem at the end is tasty.

...as long as the nothern vort doesn't crush things.

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Its the disparity thats the problem.  My cul de sac was plowed 5 times and its not anywhere near an important road.  Yet 1/2 mile away a neighborhood with hills was never touched.  The groups contracted to plow are just not efficient or doing their job.  I don't know if favoritism is playing a role but i suspect it is.  

I haven't been anywhere farther than maybe 1.5 miles away since the storm, so my perspective is pretty limited...but I've only seen roads that are fine, including my 13-home cul-de-sac. Like yours, mine was addressed very quickly and efficiently - we were essentially snow-free by noon on Tuesday. It's just interesting to hear that they've screwed up so royally that streets like ours are fine but others are a mess.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

All 12z guidance so far seems good for 1” in the metros with maybe a 2” lolli somewhere. 

This has honestly been my expectation for the 36-48 hours. Once that northern vort was consistently crushing everything across guidance, I figured it was time to set the floor and ceiling pretty low. Makes it all much more palatable.

58 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't usually get cold but i have to be honest, with the winds it is absolutely frigid outside

I was about to post similar. Took the pup out this morning and it was pretty damn chilly. At one point, he squatted and took a dump and, in my rush to close the poop bag, I dropped it and I got  a small smear on my coat. That shit froze up pretty quickly.

19 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Kids can’t make it to school, but they sure as hell can get there to go sledding at the local school sledding hill. And afterwards their parents take them for a Starbucks run. But first thing in the morning it’s totally unsafe to leave for actual school. 

It's not any more unsafe to go to the bus stop, but the schools don't want the bad PR and/or potential lawsuit should some kid slip and get hurt in the process of getting to school. That's really all it is.

The likelihood of something bad happening is incredibly small, but in a litigious society those potentially being litigated against don't want to take chances.

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

I know this is my inner Minnesotan coming through, but it is ok to walk on snow and ice.  And I'm going to blow some minds, but it is ok to drive on snow too.

I think it's just the fear of someone falling and getting hurt, then a suit follows (or just bad PR). For an area that only gets continuous snowpack every so often, I'm guessing they'd rather not take the chance and just accept being closed for an extended time once every 5-10 years.

I agree with you in principle though. The funny thing is that there was far less sledding and outdoor fun being had yesterday because I think the kids were just worn out from going nuts on Monday and Tuesday, so it's not like they'd be missing out on any sort of fun while they're in school!

1 minute ago, LordBaltimore said:

I hope for my sake and the sake of a lot of other weather peeps, that the people in charge don't forget that these things are still dependent on physical modeling systems and will be for a very very long time. It's not "AI magically takes raw data and transforms it into forecasts", it's more like the numerical modeling system does the data assimilation - using an ensemble - and then the analysis is used as input for a ML model trained off of ERA5 (also produced with a numerical modeling system). The quality of AI forecasts directly scales based on the quality of the numerical model. 

Of course. It's the same for any AI/ML system or use case. What comes out of it is only as good as the data that goes in.

I keep coming back to this thread thinking there’s some discussion of the next couple weeks.

I guess not…

Euro has a ridiculously energetic vort dropping into Montana/North Dakota at 324. Fun to look at. Would be cool to see it phase with the energy over the Gulf...

18 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Then the Arctic hammer behind the storm on the 20th.

Arctic Hammer...sounds like the stage name for a pron star from Lapland.

Once I accepted that 57" of powder was off the table, I decided that a 1-3" event would do just fine.

I hope the folks in NY feel the same.

24 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Telegraph Road is one of the few major roads in our parts that has been properly plowed, and then only minimally...roads in our subdivision got their first (single!) pass late yesterday, IF that, but at that point they were barely scraping the top layer of multiple layers of compacted snow/ice set in place Mon nite.

I'm the first one to honk if FCPS closes for the threat of a flurry, but this is the worst I've ever seen the roads around Hayfield post-snowstorm...I'll be legit shocked if FCPS doesn't close tomorrow as well.

That's crazy. Even my cul-de-sac had multiple passes with plenty of salt laid down, especially on Monday night. Everything is clear around here and I assumed that since we were among the higher totals that if we were clear then everything else should be.

I'm not mad about the schools closing. As I mentioned to mappy the other day, there are 10 days built in so it's not a huge deal, but it's pretty sad that the county hasn't been able to get things properly cleared.

Fairfax is also closed. I'm a little surprised...I figured they'd have a delay but not close.

5 hours ago, nj2va said:

It's coming down really good on the Wisp (and my Ring) cameras right now.  Between all this fresh snow + cold temps to make snow, I'd be shocked if they don't have the full mountain open very soon.  When we drove back home Sunday, you could tell the lake was ready to freeze over fully (had been in parts).

Honestly, IMO Wisp sucks at making investments and keeping up with their equipment - although apparently they fixed their issues in late December so they claim to have full capacity back.  

Even if the pattern relaxes a bit, the key is to avoid cutters that screwed them over in recent winters.

I remember last Christmas you brought the bad mojo so hopefully you don't sht the bed again in a few weeks.  

The conditions last year sucked so hard. We drove through much of Maryland in pounding rain and while when we got to McHenry it had finally let up, it was like 45-50 degrees and the snow was rapidly being eaten alive on that main run on the front of the mountain. We had fun and all, but man…did the conditions blow.

I just want to get there and not see bare ground on 75% of the mountain and have my kids asking why we drove 3 hours to see a little bit of fake snow.

Just now, nj2va said:

It's a good set up for basically snow/snow showers all week.  Definitely upside especially 2,500 or 2,600+ in elevation.

Keep building that base. Heading to Wisp in a month and hoping to find great conditions and an open mountain!

Just now, stormtracker said:

Continues to be notably different, but can already see its gonna do that tail shit again and leave most of the southern vort behind.    But these are some positive changes.   Enough to hope things can keep changing in the future at least

Let's just raise the floor a little bit. Don't need a HECS - just some fun on a Saturday.

11/21: T (grauplets)
11/22: T (SnowTV for an hour or so, followed by drizzle)
12/1: T (on-and-off small snow showers for about an hour)
12/24: T (some light sleet in the morning left a coating)
1/3: 0.75” from squall/thundersnow
1/5-1/6: 9.0" (bumped a little based on local spotter reports)

Seasonal Total: 9.75"

18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I love these events, these are the kind of events that make a winter really fun IMO.  

We have the euro, GFS, and ICON with 0.2 QPF, the CMC 0.1, and UK is a shutout. I really like where we stand for a light event without precip type issues. 

 

I agree. If the jack is 2" and that jack is over me, then I really won't complain. If the jack is 25" and I get 6" then I'll be annoyed.

Dumb logic, but then again I'm not very logical when it comes to snow.