mattie g

It's early-season potential, even if a long shot and wouldn't amount to much.

Certainly worth tracking for a couple days.

11 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

people forget that jet extensions lead to +PNA. we want those

jet retractions are associated with La Niña and -PNA

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

An extended Pacific jet is associated with a +PNA. The specific N-S location also has an influence.

Sounds to me like you're both saying some folks should read more and post less.

15 hours ago, George BM said:

Tonights sunset was the earliest of the year. The sun set at 4:47pm est at IAD (time at which 100% of the sun disappears beyond the horizon). Starting tomorrow the sun will start slowly setting later giving us more evening light. 

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where are you gonna put your money?

Don't let him bring up a model run for discussion!

12/6: T

4 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Looks right on track. At this point 850's and 2m temps are above average but a week later per the weeklies below normal temps are settling in.

I was about to say something about the temps. We just need to accept that it's going to take time for temps to cool down as things reshuffle.

Patience is hard to keep, especially with Christmas in view (and all the winter wishes that go with it), but it's still so, so early.

Love to see the reshuffle happening on the ensembles now, and not just on the weeklies. It's also nice that the can isn't getting kicked, so that each new run is showing us more of those changes than we saw in the prior run.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Was like 6” at my house and I believe had some 10-12” reports S and E of DC. Had a strong gradient with the N and W folks getting actually fringed for once. 

From my notes (Burke):

January 3: 9.25” from a relatively fast-moving low that formed as a big front came through. Was in the mid-60s for a couple days before, light rain and wet snow started at 4:00 am, then flipped by 6:00. Temps dropped all day. Nearly 2”/hr rates at the height. Postcard scene, but lots of trees and limbs down in the area.

Good to see some of the closer-in folks report some very light frozen because I thought I saw some while in the car in Burke a little earlier.

28 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Can I retroactively dump an ex from 1993. she hated snow and only like the yellow starbursts 

If she hated Starbursts and only liked yellow snow, you would have had a real kinky one on your hands.

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If you look at recent mod to super Ninos that didn’t give us a MECS or better, it’s mostly not because storms of that magnitude didn’t occur, it’s that they gave us rain or mixed precip.

If you look at H5 and surface evolutions of 2-3 storms in 97-98, you’d get weak in the knees. Except it was 40F at the surface out past Hagerstown.

New normal.

Sorry...couldn't help myself.

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know about that, but odds of KU storms are certainly higher than normal this winter, particularly mid Jan-mid Feb.

The look in January on the Euro monthlies is excellent, but February is out-and-out weenie. If it plays out that way, I'd be shocked if we didn't get a couple *really* good looks over the 6 weeks of prime climo.

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Always fun to realize how much weird information makes it to people who are not weather zealots - the person outside my office at work is the perfect individual for that...today's version -

Her:  "I heard it's gonna snow, is it gonna snow Aaron?"

Me: "No."

Just another reason why in-office work sucks.

Just now, aldie 22 said:

looks like 7 is left?

But what if it's close to 8? I think maybe that's warm phase 7.

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

First day of Met winter was less than a week ago and we have 6 pages of the Panic Room. Never change y’all 

As I said this past weekend:

On 12/2/2023 at 5:05 PM, mattie g said:

We’re punting the next three weeks, and the models have sucked at ranges beyond that, so it’s looking like a shit winter since we’re going into mid-January with no snow on the board.

54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Didn't we deal with a stubborn Western Atlantic Ridge in 2015-2016 until it briefly rolled over in January 2016 prior to the big storm?

That feature looks persistent late in the ens means BUT also look like the pattern wants to progress right beyond this with the Aleutian low anchoring, the SW trof moving East slowly, and the Scan Ridge retrograding. 

Have we had a persistent WAR over the last month or so? Sounds like you think we have.

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Winter really has become a joyless season 

At least around here, it has.

11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Just a short drive to...(checks notes)...Munich, Germany if you want to bask in glorious snow...

https://www.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1731734901718700066?s=20

Been getting a lot of reports from my wife's family about the weather in the Taunus Mountains near Frankfurt. 100% jealous...

2 hours ago, mappy said:

catching up after 4 days away and I can't tell whether winter is over or just begun lol

0.81” yesterday. Kind of surprised at that, but as others have said, we’ve been juicing up a little as we get closer in time so I guess it shouldn’t be so surprising.

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

You mean El Nino isn't generally warm in December?

It’s not Nino because we haven’t had 15” of snow and frigid conditions yet.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s January thaw time. Maybe we can get a little something in February??

Hadn’t even thought of January thaw. So yeah…we might luck into a decent 10-day period in early-February prime snow climo and put 6-8” on the board.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s December 2nd!!

We’re punting the next three weeks, and the models have sucked at ranges beyond that, so it’s looking like a shit winter since we’re going into mid-January with no snow on the board.

Busted kinda low on high temps IMBY. I guess it’s just the new normal.

On 11/26/2023 at 9:53 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

If we need to wait to mid Jan to get on the board then just about every snowfall forecast is in serious trouble.

17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly.

You don’t say.

Truly insufferable…

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The last week of December? I haven’t given up on Wednesday morning yet lol. GFS has some decent overnight snow showers for MD/PA border.

Right? What’s the f’ing point ignoring the near and medium terms when we’re not looking a torch in the face? It’s just dumb.