mattie g

15 hours ago, high risk said:

 It's really tough to ignore how similar the ECMWF and Canadian are for Halloween.

 

Agreed…and there’s really not much difference among all three. Figure we should start seeing some more convergence soon.

6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'd love to talk fall beer and food, but the first week of September I got a "cold" and bronchitis.  My chest is doing better by taking Albuterol, but I'm still battling tons of congestion and an ear that won't unclog.  Though the worst is that I have had zero smell or taste for over a week.  And I mean nothing!

By the way, I had covid last February, but with this recent illness, I've tested several times and haven't had a positive covid test.

Not sure how reliable the home tests are anymore since the virus has changed so much, but that certainly sounds SARS-y! I've had COVID once (this past January) and I had complete anosmia and ageusia for almost three weeks - well after my other symptoms were long gone. By the time I got to ten days, I started getting *real* concerned that it was going to last a long, long time, so the first time I could start sensing smell/taste was a glorious day!

Sucks though. Sorry to hear you've been battling that crud.

Canadian and Euro still want to hang that boundary around here on Halloween and then spin up a bit of a coastal on the 1st. GFS brings the front through and slides energy south and off the coast the following day.

I'd definitely like some rain, but I don't want it on Halloween again this year!

15 hours ago, CAPE said:

Need some Fall HH beer talk up in here. Who is drinking what?

Really like the DFH PA Tuxedo with the spruce notes. Very much a Fall season Pale Ale. 

Drinking a Utopias barrel aged 120 min IPA atm. Complex and totally delicious. Buzzing.

I picked up My Only Friend from Ocelot a couple weeks ago and it's amazing. BA stout with no adjuncts - pure stout and that wonderful barrel character. I need to get back out there and load up with whatever cans they have left!

Just don't f'ing rain on Halloween...

Just now, yoda said:

12z GFS is  in the LR

Snowicane!

Just now, CAPE said:

That's how it works around here with a moderate CP Nino and strong -AO/NAO. At least it used to.

For sure.

Definitely not the same thing, but it's like how Denver often gets snow. It's 60 and sunny for days on end and then they get dumped on at 15 degrees. 

14 minutes ago, JVscotch said:

The upper level low in the second and bigger phase of the February 10th storm had temps drop to upper teens/low 20s and produced 10-12” just east/north east of dc.  That was an awesome event and had strong winds.  

We also had the very cold storm at the end of January that ushered in the epic stretch.

Overall, I remember that winter being not terribly cold, but it was certainly cold enough when it needed to be.

3 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

I noticed that too. Was wondering if he has teamed with an editor somehow.

I was thinking the same, then I starting paying attention and still noticed plenty of mistakes. 

I'm flipping through DT's slides today and it's surprisingly well written and quite digestible for a complete novice like me. Really good stuff.

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mean to say it didn’t have an impact. But we’ve had other ratter +AO ninos that had nothing to do with a volcanic eruption. Was Pinatubo the catalyst or just a contributing factor?   Just speculating. There are so many anomalies in this game I always am skeptical of simple solutions.  I am not discounting it, it was one of the two things on my list of that worry me most about winter. 

Unfortunately I think the research speculated that a -QBO makes it worse. Causes an inverse reaction to a typical -QBO Nino reaction.  

But were those Modoki ratters or are you referring to crappy Nino winters without looking at where the SST anomalies were located?

91-92 *was* a Modoki, right?

I realize that I'm maybe focusing a bit too much on the type of Nino, but that does seem like *the* significant similarity between the two winters, thus it stands to reason that the significant difference in snowfall in both years (or even between 91-92 and other Modokis) could very well have been the result of an anomalous event that occurred in the 1991 timeframe.

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s a fair bit of research on the AO response to Pinatubo so we don’t have to handwave. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999jd900213

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JD003699

The upshot is that the AO was more positive because of Pinatubo and possibly particularly because of the QBO forcing enhancing the volcanic aerosol effect. The AO was super positive in 92-93 and that was due to a combination of +QBO and lingering aerosol. 

Thanks for this!

I'm certainly no expert, but I did do a little researching on the Googles before making that post (and wouldn't have made the post had I not at least read about what I claimed). Yes...I realize that there may have been other factors involved, but everything I saw pointed to Pinatubo having a major effect on increasing the +AO values in 91-92.

14 hours ago, 5-4-3DP said:

Man, we’ve been going with a group of 4 families for the last 6 years for new years and if I remember correctly we’ve had exactly 1 winter where we had a ton of snow on the ground. In fact the last 2 we were able to do polar bear plunge in the lake with temps in the 50s-60… it wasn’t that bad either lol. We switched it up this year to masanutten so you’re probably golden haha.

Crazy to hear about 50s and 60s out there at that time of the year, but it's been a miserable stretch of winter for everyone!

It's been too long for us. We used to go to Snowshoe as a group before kids, but we're ready to jump back into it!

13 hours ago, nj2va said:

We spend every year between Christmas and New Years at our place in McHenry. The last three years have been snowless (and the last two years have sucked in terms of rain/50s) but the three years before that featured snow falling. December 2017 had like 18” on the ground with a few storms in that timeframe. 
 

“see you” on the mountain! I turn 40 during that week so maybe that will bring the goods ha. 

Really looking forward to this. The last two years have just sucked in general, so hopefully the lack of a raging Nina will help bring some goods. 18" OTG would be great, but I'd be happy with enough to cover the soles of my shoes and some flakes flying!

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Mostly it's the HL blocking. 2009-10 had an epic sustained -AO/NAO. He kinda seemed to not get that, which is odd for anyone who lives in this region and likes snow. A -AO is the number one index we want- high correlation to above normal snow in the MA, esp in the lowlands.

For sure, but I think it's pretty well agreed that Pinatubo was the big reason why 91-92 had a very +AO. I think that's key when you compare the Nino values for the two winters he mentioned.

A group of our friends just booked a ski-in, ski-out place for our five families near the top of Wisp for December 27-30. First time out there. Hoping for at least a little snowpack at the house to amp up the Holiday feel while we're there!

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

I have reviewed Enso data for the past 40 years looking for analog years to compare to latest CPC predictions of  at least +1.5. for November through January in region 3.4..

I find two: 91-92 at +1.5 and 09-10 at +1.6.

I looked at total winter snowfall for my location in Augusta County for each winter and monthly precipitation totals for each year.  91-92 gave me only 3 inches of snow and 09-10 gave me 63 inches!  How can this happen when both winters had similar Nino values as predicted for this winter?  When I posted this anomaly back in July, Terpeast said that a strongly positive AO sometimes at +2.0 probably killed the 91-92 winter.

November of 91 was dry at only 2.18" prec., Nov. of 09 was wet at 6.75".  Normal is 3.54"

December of 91 was wet at 5.25", Dec. of 09 was very wet at 7.03".  Normal is 2.59".

Jan. of 92 was dry at 2.08", Jan. of 10 was wet at 3.78". Normal is 2.95".

February of 92 was dry at 2.36", February of 10 was also dry at 2.26". Normal is 2.86"

My theory is that similar atmospherics will likely produce similar results with a +1.5 or + 1.6 Nino. The next 14 day AO is predicted neutral or slightly negative. Does anyone have any credible predictions for the December/January AO.  What was the AO in December/January 09-10?

 

Pinatubo

5 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

They are an absolute buzzsaw right now. Talk about getting hot at the right time. 

Apart from that one mini meltdown against the Braves, the Phils are very much the same.

10 hours ago, 87storms said:

I know we’re technically in an El Niño, but I don’t see how this is any different from a La Nina. It’s gonna be a change of pace when we get a storm out of the gulf.

But you can't extrapolate a pattern in the beginning of fall out through winter.

I'm not sure why anyone is handwringing right now.

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

UM. No? I mean, I tried that. Literally. At least the last two years...NOPE. 

2 hours ago, katabatic said:

I hear ya. I moved to f'ing Oakland and best I could do was 3" in a single 'storm' last year. 

Because small sample sizes are indicative of long-term returns?

^

But aren't you concerned about the lack of blocking we've seen so far this month?!

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

Is this a preview of the winter??  I hope not!

I thought the concern is precip being south and east.

2 hours ago, Steve25 said:

Good information, one thing though. I'm almost certain this doesn't include 2022-23 in that span. It's the 7 years leading up to 2022-23, going from 2015-16 to 2021-22. Obviously, 2015-16 presented us with that huge storm in January which got our season total over 30 inches. 

Certain that the 7 year span from 2016-17 to 2022-23 is the worst 7 year stretch in this areas history. I mean, it's saying something that the 7 year period INCLUDING 2015-16 is still 4th on the list. 

If my math is correct, BWI is averaging 9.2 inches annually in the previous 7 years, from 2016-17 through 2022-23. As you can see by your list, 9.2 would be by far the lowest over a 7 year period, and it's not remotely close.

 

 

Good catch. My quick analysis looked at the previous 9 years. 

Edit: Here's the updated table. Interesting to see the '30s, '50s, '70s, and '90s in here - every 20 years being represented until you get into the 2000s, when it skips to the 2020s.

1. 2022-23: 9.14
2. 1976-77: 11.44
3. 1955-56: 12.01
4. 1954-55: 12.13
5. 1994-95: 12.71
6. 1975-76: 12.86
7. 1931-32: 13.79
8. 1974-75: 13.87
9. 1953-54: 14.03
10. 1956-57: 14.11
11. 2021-22: 14.13
12. 1952-53: 14.46
13. 1993-94: 14.46
14. 1977-78: 14.49
15. 1932-33: 14.81
16. 1973-74: 15.47
17. 1991-92: 15.76
18. 1930-31: 15.93
19. 2020-21: 16.17
20. 1951-52: 16.50

43 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow, the 1950s must have been brutal for weenies...

Then came the 1960s.

Yeah. The '60s were just so consistent from year to year, and even the lesser years had nearly 20".

The 50s averages were skewed by a dead ratter in 1949-1950 and a bad year in 1950-1951, but there were no truly good years to offset those until you got to 1957-1958 (and by that time the 7-year average timespan had gone).

1. 1967-68: 33.93
2. 1968-69: 32.21
3. 1966-67: 31.78
4. 1965-66: 31.73
5. 1963-64: 29.86
6. 1964-65: 29.80
7. 1969-70: 29.38
8. 1911-12: 28.76
9. 1910-11: 28.47
10. 1970-71: 26.91
11. 1906-07: 26.82
12. 1912-13: 26.69
13. 1971-72: 26.29
14. 1909-10: 26.06
15. 2010-11: 26.00
16. 1940-41: 25.87
17. 1941-42: 25.69
18. 1961-62: 25.50
19. 1962-63: 25.22
20. 1913-14: 24.72

28 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I also think it's fair to say that even if there were very promising signals for the upcoming winter, it's going to be hard for many to show too much optimism or hope just due to the period we're living in. 

I don't even know if it's arguable anymore that the past 7 year stretch is the worst in this areas history. BWI is coming off it's lowest snow season in 140 years of keeping official records. They've been under 19 inches total for 7 consecutive seasons, tying the all time record from 70/71 to 76/77. Our stretch being notably worse though, with 3 of these 7 years being three inches or less. That period in the 70s only had one such season. If we make it to January of 2024, it'll be 8 consecutive years since our last area wide 6+ inch snowstorm. 

On top of all that statistical data, we have all the talk that this is not just a bad stretch, this is the new normal around here. It's a dark time for winter enthusiasts in this region and it doesn't make it easier when every time someone brings up a positive signal for the winter, there's someone countering it with why it's not as positive as you may think. 

If you take the previous 7-year average of BWI annual snowfalls for all years from 1900-present, here's the worst 20:

1. 1956-57: 13.27
2. 1976-77: 13.30
3. 1955-56: 14.16
4. 2022-23: 14.20
5. 1975-76: 14.67
6. 1954-55: 14.82
7. 1991-92: 15.01
8. 1977-78: 15.04
9. 1957-58: 15.83
10. 1932-33: 15.96
11. 1994-95: 16.07
12. 1952-53: 16.07
13. 1992-93: 16.11
14. 1958-59: 16.20
15. 1980-81: 16.57
16. 1931-32: 16.59
17. 1953-54: 16.60
18. 2019-20: 16.79
19. 1993-94: 16.89
20. 1951-52: 17.01

I have it on good authority that weenies were jumping off cliffs in the 50s.

How can you people remember who called what for a winter from 14 years ago?