mattie g

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Obviously we want both but early season I’ll take the pacific over the Atlantic. 

Yup. I don't need big blocking. Just get me some cold air delivery and I'll be happy with a fast-moving system that throws precip over that cold.

I think I see a hint of split flow on that EPS image, as well.

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

@mattie g was right! Three weeks and it’s back.  I can taste and smell!

            
 

 

Haha...awesome!

What's crazy is that I was thinking about how you were doing just earlier today and was going to ask!

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I’m a bit concerned about the marine heat wave off Japan, but that’s not a PDO thing, something else is going on

Big volcano down there.

Edit: I'm still in shock that my Dad sent me a text last year about underwater volcanoes adding all that heat to the oceans. 

2 hours ago, hstorm said:

We need a separate pot plant obs thread . . .

45 for the low in GF.

 

Could put it in the "green stuff" thread. I don't mind!

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Still no sign of a negative or even neutral NAO/AO. Not a good sign.

Stop it. Seriously.

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah it’s “fine”. I’m just always impatient for winter to show up. Doesn’t change my feeling about winter at all. 

I'm honestly in no rush to bring cold weather in - never have been and never will be. On December 1, my feelings change and I'm ready to roll (or at least ready to start seeing wintry weather on the horizon), but before that I don't get worked up about the weather on any given day.

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Yup. Kinda feel like that’ll be the story of the winter, but we will see. 

I have to ask...why do you think that other than to gird yourself against potential disappointment?

Absolutely glorious weekend.

Seems like most weekends recently weren’t ideal for the annual War of the Leaves, but after a huge leaf drop early this past week this weekend has been ideal for it.

^ 
Yeah…Jan-Feb look really nice there.

Based those maps, I’d love an early-December torch that ends with some chill and precip leading into a rocking early January followed by a late-month thaw and killer February.

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Still no taste or smell here. 

Ugh. Just keep trying various foods and drinks and one day you’ll start sensing something and it should start coming back fairly quickly. For me, it took another week or so after I could definitely taste/smell in detail until I felt everything was back to normal.

33 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Still a considerable step back.

But it's not. The same general idea is there, which is what you should expect from a climate model.

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Only 31.0 this morning

Seems we didn't go too low, either. I don't have obs from before I woke up, but I saw 34 on wunderground at 6:30 and then 33 at 7:00. We usually radiate OK, but I'm not sure if it was colder than that earlier in the day...though it was really damn frosty out there!

It's a damn good song. Some of Lennon's later stuff was absolutely fantastic, and I think we're so lucky that Paul and Ringo got to sink their teeth into it. Really poignant song, as well.

I heard they also used some backing vocals from a few other Beatles songs and that Paul may have played slide guitar on it.

48 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Great writeup and analysis.  I certainly hope this comes to fruition.

IMO, only a 10% chance of less than 10" is really aggressive.  5 of the last 7 winters have been sub-10" in my backyard, and I'm not even in a river like DCA.  

The post-super Nino era hasn't been kind to us:

Nina
Nina
Nino
Neutral
Nina
Nina
Nina

Obviously there's ore to it than that, but that ENSO stretch isn't helpful to our snow chances. A strong basin-wide Nino should help alleviate that it his year.

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Glad you all enjoyed reading this. I wanted to make it easy to skim and digest, while being as comprehensive as possible. 

Now let’s see where the chips fall…

Agreed with the comments about it being very easy to digest. Really well researched and written!

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is the kinda ballpark I’m leaning toward 

I'm thinking a little higher than normal, if only because of the greater chance of a nice event or two given all the factors at play. I'd love to be wrong and have multiple shots during a pretty cold Nino winter, but I can't let myself go there.

BWI:  23.7"
DCA: 19.2"
IAD: 29.1"
RIC: 15.6"

SBY: 14.9"

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's no way Lancaster only had 13" in 2013-14.....that must be from the 2012-13 season.

Sounds right. From https://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/season-snow.html:

2012/13           14.6
2013/14           61.9

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Every county that still has growing season still going has a freeze watch for Wed night... including all of S MD and the metros... guess LWX will just end it all in one fell swoop

Harvested about 7 lbs of tomatoes and jalapenos yesterday in preparation for first freeze. Looks like I'll be pulling the garden this weekend!

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How we lookin?

For?

Front is moving through and the massive beech trees in all my neighbors' backyards are shedding like a husky in spring.

23 hours ago, mattie g said:

Agreed…and there’s really not much difference among all three. Figure we should start seeing some more convergence soon.

It’s still a couple days away, but it’s looking more like the GFS solution will play out. If it does, that’s a pretty damn good verification from many days out in the face of the CMC and Euro solutions.

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This. 

Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. 

We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens!

One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous.

-3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016. 

People like to stick with their negative takes be abuse they draw attention and gives the poster the chance to spew “I told you sos” after the fact if things don’t go how many few it will.

10 hours ago, nj2va said:

Well said. Honestly, reminds me why I don’t want to post here going forward with how negative it is 

Pretty sure I posted more in spring and summer this year than I did in the last few winters. It really does get unbearable at times, and the negativity before anything has even happened is the worst part about it.