mattie g

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Bad news… sounds like winter is over again.

It'll be back on again within a couple model runs.

Edit: Posts over the last day in the Nino thread in the General section are uncancelling for our region. Just have to wait a little longer than we'd like.

I'm irrationally annoyed by what the Canadian is showing for early next week. ~3" of precip over 48 hours from storm in which a northern stream vort drops down into the backside of a juicy southern stream vort and that stays pretty far off the coast.

Stupid Pacific air...

51 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

I’m the next town over in Fairfax Station Clifton area and we finished at 1.1 inches. Also a large tree across the road in neighborhood which happens back in the woods. Yes already over last seasons snow total.

Sounds about right. The nearest station that reported is right by South Run Rec Center and they reported 1.4". That also sounds like a good number prior to compaction and melting.

On 12/7/2023 at 12:18 PM, mattie g said:

12/6: T

12/11: 1.25" - Calling it that since the closest trained spotter was at 1.4" and I log in 0.25" increments and didn't want to round up.

I honestly didn't measure here in Burke because by the time I woke up there had already been decent melting and compaction, but our cul-de-sac caved fully and was quite icy at about 7:00. Checked our Ring and you could just make out how our walkway caved at about 3:30 and then eventually melted. I was also shocked that the snow on cars and other surfaces was crusty and not just wet.

I'm confident we had over 1" at the height of it.

Crazy to think that we've bested last winter on December 11 with a post-deluge/post-front event. I guess that says more about last year than it does this year.

Went outside about 15 minutes ago and thought I saw some “unusually large raindrops” in our Christmas spotlight that I was hoping might be pasty flakes. Nope…just really large raindrops.

39 and raining decently here in Burke.

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this is lols but I wouldn’t be shocked if places closer to the cities get 1-3” of one of these bands the meso models keep hinting at actually sets up. 

Pretty much bullseyes MBY. Said it before, but get me something to measure and then let it melt. I don't care - I just want to see something on the ground again.

Ob: Definitely a decent lull in the precip, so the wife and I are headed out for a walk on the Liberty Bell Trail. Nice little jaunt and not many idiots will be out walking/running today.

8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Sorry, at times I can’t tell the difference between those on here who have been legit panicking and debbing and those employing sarcasm.

Sarcasm is a poor substitute for wit…and I admit that my wit supply is quite low.

Rainy and cool in Burke. Had that one burst of a downpour about an hour or so ago but it’s just a steady pitter patter right now.

Had a late night at a Christmas party, so today is laaaaaaaazy…

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Started as rain and temps seem far from freezing 

Snowstorm bust?

34 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Fun to see this thread rocking with some good vibes.  Helluva lot better than the doom and gloom that some like to go with.

Exactly.

We all know that it’s less likely to rip snow for three hours and lay down 3” of mashed potatoes than it is to f*cking dump buckets and end as a few mangled flakes, but we’ve got vibes…and vibes are good right now.

It’s been a f’ing dumpster fire for the last 12 months, so let’s enjoy the relatively unrealistic NAM until tomorrow’s runs slap us with some reality!

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

What is that 50 mile wide swath of 4 to 8 inches just west of i95 on the 3km NAM?

Shows up on Kuchera and 10:1 PW maps 

I’m in. All in. Let it melt within 3 hours…I don’t care. Let that sh*t rip.

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Who cares about seeing some snow flying…..if its not enough to get us at least 4-6” who the heck cares….even if it’d make your kid happy….yeesh

You’re right. I guess if she cant appreciate less than 4-6”, then she doesn’t deserve happiness!

Toughen up, kid!

Taking my 10-year-old to get her tonsils removed on Monday morning. Would love for her to wake up to some snow flying just to get her in the right mood!

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

At hr54, NAM is beating down the I-81 corridor. Widespread 3-5” verbatim

The NAM at range is always so f’ing weenie. Gotta love it.

50 minutes ago, H2O said:

What the hell is wrong with you?  At least wear a holiday elf hat to make it seasonal.  Come on.  

Speaking of swimming, we are full on rolling with high school winter swim season.  I'll say this.  I prefer summer even if its early in the morning.  These 6pm or 9pm HS swim meets SUCK.  Old man is ready for bed at that hour.

Good idea. Might have to pop on a hat if some sort!

I only know about high school swimming from some of the kids on our team, but it does sound like a grind. I was shocked when I heard about the 8:30-9:00 meets. That’s brutal!

Can’t get too banged up tonight. I have to be up at 6 tomorrow to set up for a swim team fundraiser - Pancakes and Pajamas.

Will be serving flapjacks in this (though I look far more busted than this young lady does):

43 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Epic winter is a high bar these days. I’d honestly be happy with just one event with 12”+. I’m in this hobby for the woof big dog events.

And epic winter is a high bar, whether now or 100 years ago.

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m happy to see this juice up like our recent systems of late.  Nino flexing and I think a good sign of what’s to come this winter in our peak climo.

Bingo.

This is good news and is indicative of Nino feeding moisture into southern energy. We’re going to win with that kind of juice at some point.

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

My choice would have been the high gravity stuff- probably 30 or 31 lol.

Sipping on a Utopias Barrel aged 120 min IPA for Friday HH right now.

Nice…

I just poured a Wegman’s cherry pomegranate seltzer with vodka and lime as my starter. It’s very much a summer drink, but it’s crazy good. Going to follow that with a BCBS into which I dropped half a Madagascar vanilla bean two days ago.
 

Oh. Yeah.

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

pushing 60F lol

The normal high at DCA today is 51. The record high is 74.

Why lol?

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Monsieur Webb is beginning to irk me.  Of course lately he hasn't been wrong any time he mocked us with predictions of warmth.  

I've never quite understood why someone would choose a public persona of a disingenuous asshole.

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Isn’t that slightly concerning on a broader scale for our winter events?

Agree with brooklyn. I think you run a risk if you try to view an individual event as indicative of a greater issue. I don't think any of us would take a cold powder storm in mid-December and draw sweeping conclusions about where we were going on a wider scale, so I don't think we can do that here.

It's really nothing to do with borderline temps in our immediate region during prime climo - it's just that CONUS is warm and we're at the beginning of a pattern change in the middle of December. It's annoying, but I don't think we can draw any conclusions from it other than that it's part of the step down into more favorable climo and setup.

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

4th out of last 5 GFS runs with a big phasing/near-phasing coastal D8-11. Hopefully we see that again with some colder air in another few weeks. 

Yup. Too bad CONUS is full of warm air at the time, but it's great to see a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and riding the coast.

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@psuhoffman I remember last year you talked a lot about how one of your main worries was how there was next to no frozen precip on the north sides of the low. Should we expect that to change in nino years? Using the recent gfs as an example of what you talked about last year. I know it’s December but still a little concerning to see no snow anywhere with a nor easter. 

Looks at the temps across North America. This isn't some borderline snow situation - it's in the 40s from coast to coast. There's just no cold for this to tap into.

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Any snow is good snow, even if its snow TV in the metros.  It'll make the Christmas decorations even more festive.  

100%.

It would probably be annoying to "have to" track something like this at the beginning of February if we hadn't seen anything of note prior to that, but it's barely into December at this point. Let's track away!