mattie g

What a surprise. The typical folks have shown up after this GFS run.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

contender for OP run of the year. my god

I’m weenie as hell for trying to analyze 384 on an op run, but is that the PV pinched under the NAO/AO near Hudson Bay, providing confluence and a source of colder air?

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Uh oh, look at how hot Canada is.  Maybe March will have a chance  

Morch cancel?

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Nothing here, just cold. Glad to see others getting flurries and snow showers though!

Cloudy, blustery, and chilly. If nothing else, it *feels* wintry.

21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Still the dumbest name ever for a storm

They're all dumb.

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

So how's the 24/25 ENSO looking?

On 12/12/2023 at 5:51 PM, Terpeast said:

CFS shows a literal nina for next year

On 12/13/2023 at 8:26 AM, mattie g said:

If this year is 94-95, then maybe next year is 95-96.

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

NWS upped totals for the mountains. Wisp and Canaan cams will be fun later today. 

Good. We're heading to Wisp for a few days next week and would love to have some natural snowpack, if only for the ambiance!

Looks like MBY ended with round about 2.5" from the storm.

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

Such a great way to get a clean 4-8".

The evaporating Aleutian low is no longer evaporating on the GEFS.

Also…power flickered four times here in Burke about 20-30 minutes ago. Thought we were cooked come the second time. Fingers crossed it holds out!

1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

 No need to imagine, the way thermodynamics work, it wouldn’t be that QPF if it were snow.

It is why you can get 3 inches of rain per hour but not 30 inches of snow per hour. It doesn’t work like that.

But it’s not at all unheard of for us to get 2-3” of QPF during a big southern stream storm in a Nino.

I get that warmer air can hold more moisture, but that doesn’t mean we can’t pick up copious precip during cold storms given the right conditions.

And please…I’m all ears to hear why I might be mistaken!

I’m surprised at some of the meager rainfall reports. Feels like it’s been pouring for f’ing HOURS.

58 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1736544821244838020?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
 

On 12/15/2023 at 5:56 PM, MN Transplant said:

Probably.  We can all use our Reddit alts.

I just created r/mid_atlantic_wx as a private community.

I’m honestly not a big Reddit contributor, though I read it a lot. Figured it can’t hurt to create that sub just in case things somehow go TU here.

Remember when someone set up an emergency alternate site/server for if AmWx went down? Wonder if we should start a Mid-Atlantic weather subreddit or something...

28 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

 

I'm afraid to read the long-range thread now.

11 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

PSU said something a couple of pages back about it. We get flooded with PAC air constantly now. We will see over the next couple of months if ENSO means anything anymore. 

It's not just the Pacific air itself. It's the flow that blocks the cold from getting out of Siberia (it's been f'ing cold as Dante's hell there), across Canada, and down into our neck of the woods.

We've been dealing with the flow for quite a few years now, but there's nothing to say that it's something that won't change again within another few years.

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

pied psuper

Not bad. I can see where you were going with it.

50 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Another spin the wheel day...where will land today

Wherever psu guides the weenies.

14 hours ago, Terpeast said:

CFS shows a literal nina for next year

If this year is 94-95, then maybe next year is 95-96.

Day 2 of snowcover...

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Someone remind osfan that this thread exists.

Who?

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You're right. And to be clear, please do not take this as me saying "Oh please don't deliver bad news!" or that purely scientific analysis should be held back to preserve feelings, or that personal preference should interfere with good analysis. That's not what I meant.

You've been expressing that you didn't understand why you were getting pushback, right? When I said "consider the psychological side", I eas responding to your slight surprise/,bewilderment about the reaction people have, I gave my theory on why that is...I'm not at all suggesting you quit making good analysis just because it's bad news. I was just explaining what I saw as the reason why people were reacting to it, sometimes in a not-so-scientific way. Doesn't make the reactions scientifically sound...lol I'm a very big "why" person when it comes to people's reactions, because often times the problem lies within, than with whoever is posting good analysis like you do.

Very well said.

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes, you can’t get cross polar flow when a raging pac jet is blasting across North America. 
ETA: and you can’t even generate home grown domestic cold when pac maritime air is being blasted across by a record pac jet. It’s all related.  

 Add in that it’s just simply warmer overall and this is a bad combo  

What isn’t totally known is how much of the pac issue is a temporary cycle and how much is permanent due to warming. 
 

I think it’s a bit of both. We are in a hostile cyclical pdo regime. But the expansion of the pacific circulation and the western pac warm pool have both been linked to warming and both are making the PDO program a lot worse. 

Gotcha. That makes sense now that you even quickly explain it.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They aren’t downwind of the raging pacific jet so…. Just pointing out it’s not a random fluke this keeps happening. It’s all related. 

No doubt being upstream from the Pacific "helps" Siberia, but are you suggesting that if there weren't a raging Pacific jet then the cold locked up there would somehow be released/shared?