Stevo6899

Apparently that's chicago now.

I don't know how anybody could be confident in anything more than day out nowadays. Just yesterday a lot of the models had this first storm tracking west of Toledo. It's most likely not gonna track close to near that. The good news is it looks like there's going to be a pretty legit snow for somebody.

18z rgem is best case scenario for whole detroit area, including Josh now. Wettest and snowiest run yet. Gfs too. I look forward to dtx issuing wwa then upgrading to a warning after 5 inches is already on the ground per usual.

It's weird the low pressure system pretty much just gets shunted East as there must be confluence to the north. Usually in that case we see the low weakening but it doesn't lose strength as it shoots ENE. Doesn't really transfer energy either. Interesting trajectory/orientation.

Definitely going to come down to nowcasting around these parts. Models don't have the low strengthening until it's SE of here but if it does sooner, could be better totals. Our friends to the NE into Ontario looking good.

With all that being said the GFS has been schooling almost everybody the last few Winters, atleast with the events I've been tracking. Obviously many were hoping for the stronger Northwest storm. That's the problem with these Texas/colorado lows, us in Detroit we have to hope for the weaker solutions in order to get snow (or have the low eject further SE out of texas, gulf) which is a bummer for our friends to the west. At the end of the day you'd like to see a powerhouse storm for someone, and hopefully that delivers by the end of winter.

Gfs looking to score the coup all along...

The National Weather Service in Iowa must be tossing the Euro because parts of western iowa with no advisories.

They both take the low pressure on a similar track but the intensity is the big difference. Probably lil things at this point and will come down to nowcasting as usual

Rgem took a step towards gfs/ukie. Interesting battle setting up as usual.

Historically I would take your location over mine any winter. You're definitly in a better spot for this one but long ways to go and from experience never good to be in jackpot area 48-60 hrs out. Also I don't trust the euro at all these days so gonna be fun to track this one rest of the way.

I think a blend of the nw rgem/euro and se gfs/ukie, low track from evansville to cedar point, is the good guess at this point. South bend through the thumb jackpot.

Trust me I don't take anything these models show seriously. Of the three home runs I'll take a half of one, 6 inch storm and call it a winter and try again in 8 months.

What a crazy cut off on the 12z Canadian. Basically nothing at the airport but 15 inches like 75-100 miles nw. Canadian almost a perfect track for this area. Gfs definitly on the weaker side and hard to go against it.

It's low humidity 85. Obviously different strokes but perfect weather to chill in the man cave garage and watch sports at night. The only thing that would've made it better is if the lions weren't choke artists and played yesterday. Icon pretty much the same, rgem is a bit more nw and sloppy mix for detroit. In this range I've noticed it on several occasions be too nw. Either way, trends aren't good for detroit. What a Rollercoaster. Models at one point for a few cycles were weaker and SE but that looks off the table now. Saginaw ftw per rgem. Brutal cutoff locally as we've seen unfortunately many times.

Historically and given our past in these setups I'd be worried of a more amped nw storm per the nam but with seasonal trends, it'll be interesting to watch unfold. It's been interesting to watch the models as the icon initially was the most nw and amped and now its the best for us. I'm on the fence if I'm going to catch a flight home for this. It's been 85 and sunny down here for like 15 days in a row now lol.

Looks like it actually closes off and goes negative tilt for a little bit in Ontario. Someone in Michigan gonna get walloped. Gonna be a close one for the city.

Mother nature doesn't care who's due but if that euro run verifies, Heartbreaker. But I trust the euro the least so should be interesting next couple days.

You'd like to see the GFS onboard as I believe it's schooled the euro mostly lately. Gfs just keeps it a disorganized mess, 1007 low vs 999 on canadian/euro/ukmet. Perhaps it's dealing with convection issues with the moisture to the south.

It's been a minute since we've had something legit to track and usually we start tracking a week out. It doesnt feel like it's only 72 or so hours away.

If only we could lock in the 18z rgem for detroit. Rain/snow line close but ya gotta smell the rain to get the goods. Good to see most models stay healthy with it today. I'd expect the gfs to follow.

I think at this point the important thing is that the storms are still on the models. Obviously details to be figured out at a later date. I could see how anybody say west of Chicago would have some pessimism but since we're entering a new pattern who knows.

If this thing could slow down and amplify a little bit, close off and go negative tilt, it's got a chance to be a biggie... Model runs last 24 hours have turned this into alot weaker storm. Guess no surprise there. It's pretty incredible how long this se/weaker trend has been going on with almost every potential.

Back to back to back home runs on the euro. Probably will never see a run like that again locally, 40+ in 9 day span.

To be honest I wouldn't even look past hour 100 anymore on the models especially in this complex pattern.