Stevo6899

I think that next storm, if it's as strong as depicted now, will go nw, just like next week's. We need a gulf low or something come out of south Texas. These lows that come outta the rockies/4 corners/panhandle go negative tilt too early for metro detroit to get in on the goods.

Looking like areas east of Chicago, and west of Albany ny, Zzzzz. Typical corridor of mediocrity.

Still large differences between the euro/Canadian. Barely any cold sector precip and storm is pretty progressive on the canadian. Uncle ukie has totals drop off significantly from south to north Illinois, cutoff around Chicago.

Yea looking good for western sub, hopefully the next one delivers for those who miss out on this one.

Yea I think with a low that strong, there will be more dynamic cooling that the models aren't portraying. A track from NE Arkansas to Cleveland is usually good for most of Michigan. Interesting to see the euro look more like earlier gfs runs and the latest gfs took a step towards the euro.

If the gfs ends up verifying, I'd imagine there would be blizzard warnings for the grr area. Only a few hour drive away. Canadian has a totally different evolution and track.

The point is that may be the only storm the past few winters that didn't end up weaker/se than what the euro depicted 4/5 days out. I think the fact that detroit had mixing issues is why I didnt recall that event.

Euro actually ends up weaker, but it ejects further north and gets its act together quicker than the gfs/cmc. Euro caved to the gfs numerous times last winter. I wonder who wins our first model battle this winter...

Canadian seems confused on where the low strenghtens. Not much cold sector precip. Definitely gonna be a Rollercoaster on the models the next few days.

I dunno, I was in florida and if there was anything of significance, I would've flown home. I doubt it was anything close to as strong as what models are depicting for this potential.

Most people don't pull out the shovels for flurries and tenths of snow on sidewalks.

It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska.

Normally I would be concerned about not having the euro on my side but the euro was really bad and overamped on several occasions the past few winters. We haven't seen a storm like this in years and the trend has been SE and not as wound up. With that being said, this has ghd written all over it and overdue for a nw trend/bomb like this. In a strong el nino winter, the last thing I thought I'd have to worry about is a low tracking overhead.

I think this a good visual reminder about models this far out.

Me in a week when I hear sleet pinging off the windows...

As always we gotta let that first system roll through before we can even get excited about this one. First wave is trending drier and weaker which might allow for of a nw track with this one.

First storm stays SE and east coast gets a pretty solid snowstorm. Moves out quick which allows heights to rise in the middle of the country for the next system to go NW. The euro intensifies the second system but it moves ENE instead of shooting nw of chicago, which you usually see with a strenghtneing low below 980 in missouri. Perhaps blocking?

What a wild rollercoaster it has been. I remember some winters in the past 10 where it seemed to snow almost everyday in the winter. It seems when we get into a certain pattern, it's hard to break it, even more-so when were in a warm pattern in the winter like we currently are. Luckily when we get arctic blasts <15 degrees as highs, they don't usually last longer than a week. It would be nice to have a snowy December for once as it sets the tone for the winter. It sucks having to wait this long for decent snow lol.

In other words, alek appreciates and thanks you for taking the time to post your analysis ohweather. I echo his sentiments.

Apologies if someone else has asked you this recently, but is this the first Christmas you wont have full snow cover?

Mid 50s Christmas day, while we didn't get outta the teens last Christmas. It was only in the 30s today but with the sun out it felt alot warmer. Definitly feels weird.

Yea im still a weenie at heart and will hop on a plane from Florida to Detroit for a snow event. Hate the cold, but love snowstorms lol.

As long as it's not a snow noreaster for I95 cities..

As long as it's not a noreaster for I95 cities...

Yea, it seems El Nino is definitly flexing its muscles, as it's been stormy down there this month. The last few winters it seemed like it would rain once a month down there, especially la nina winters. It's too bad when we get favorable la ninas, it seems the tele's wreak havoc and mess up a potentially good/snowy winter. I dont know much about them but id guess they are not affecting el nino or its tendencies so far this nov/dec.