Stevo6899

Ukie is definitely not as robust as others with the waa snows out ahead. Curious if thats why its more nw than others. 3 days out and it could be a biggie, or just a few inches of waa snow here.

Yeah the low pressure was mostly down south and a new low (1006mb which will get close to 1000 in canada) is just starting to get its act together in Ohio which is just a little bit too late to get the big totals with a positively tiled system like our friends up in Ontario are going to get.

It's going as planned and still a long ways to go, atleast on the east side. Definitly nothing substantial tho. Better than nothing I suppose.

Yeah the models had the snow starting there earlier it's going to be interesting to see the low develop next few hours for detroit area.

Yea areas to the nw are gonna end up with more. Hopefully it'll start ripping soon further east.

Euro running late or am I just off with the times it runs/dst?

Rgem holding steady while short-term high-res models are keeping the bands further Nw. I think more than 12 hours out the rap and HHR tend to be too far Nw. That rain snow line stays just east in Canada. I'm curious what the ratios would be. temps look to be in the lower to mid-20s yet that rain snow line is so close.

Super bowl, Detroit in 06.

Apparently that's chicago now.

I don't know how anybody could be confident in anything more than day out nowadays. Just yesterday a lot of the models had this first storm tracking west of Toledo. It's most likely not gonna track close to near that. The good news is it looks like there's going to be a pretty legit snow for somebody.

18z rgem is best case scenario for whole detroit area, including Josh now. Wettest and snowiest run yet. Gfs too. I look forward to dtx issuing wwa then upgrading to a warning after 5 inches is already on the ground per usual.

It's weird the low pressure system pretty much just gets shunted East as there must be confluence to the north. Usually in that case we see the low weakening but it doesn't lose strength as it shoots ENE. Doesn't really transfer energy either. Interesting trajectory/orientation.

Definitely going to come down to nowcasting around these parts. Models don't have the low strengthening until it's SE of here but if it does sooner, could be better totals. Our friends to the NE into Ontario looking good.

With all that being said the GFS has been schooling almost everybody the last few Winters, atleast with the events I've been tracking. Obviously many were hoping for the stronger Northwest storm. That's the problem with these Texas/colorado lows, us in Detroit we have to hope for the weaker solutions in order to get snow (or have the low eject further SE out of texas, gulf) which is a bummer for our friends to the west. At the end of the day you'd like to see a powerhouse storm for someone, and hopefully that delivers by the end of winter.

Gfs looking to score the coup all along...

The National Weather Service in Iowa must be tossing the Euro because parts of western iowa with no advisories.

They both take the low pressure on a similar track but the intensity is the big difference. Probably lil things at this point and will come down to nowcasting as usual

Rgem took a step towards gfs/ukie. Interesting battle setting up as usual.

Historically I would take your location over mine any winter. You're definitly in a better spot for this one but long ways to go and from experience never good to be in jackpot area 48-60 hrs out. Also I don't trust the euro at all these days so gonna be fun to track this one rest of the way.

I think a blend of the nw rgem/euro and se gfs/ukie, low track from evansville to cedar point, is the good guess at this point. South bend through the thumb jackpot.

Trust me I don't take anything these models show seriously. Of the three home runs I'll take a half of one, 6 inch storm and call it a winter and try again in 8 months.

What a crazy cut off on the 12z Canadian. Basically nothing at the airport but 15 inches like 75-100 miles nw. Canadian almost a perfect track for this area. Gfs definitly on the weaker side and hard to go against it.

It's low humidity 85. Obviously different strokes but perfect weather to chill in the man cave garage and watch sports at night. The only thing that would've made it better is if the lions weren't choke artists and played yesterday. Icon pretty much the same, rgem is a bit more nw and sloppy mix for detroit. In this range I've noticed it on several occasions be too nw. Either way, trends aren't good for detroit. What a Rollercoaster. Models at one point for a few cycles were weaker and SE but that looks off the table now. Saginaw ftw per rgem. Brutal cutoff locally as we've seen unfortunately many times.

Historically and given our past in these setups I'd be worried of a more amped nw storm per the nam but with seasonal trends, it'll be interesting to watch unfold. It's been interesting to watch the models as the icon initially was the most nw and amped and now its the best for us. I'm on the fence if I'm going to catch a flight home for this. It's been 85 and sunny down here for like 15 days in a row now lol.

Looks like it actually closes off and goes negative tilt for a little bit in Ontario. Someone in Michigan gonna get walloped. Gonna be a close one for the city.