Stevo6899

Fixed**. Did the storm already happen? I don't get all the bust talk. The waa/front end was never gonna be anything great and main show to still come. Definitly some bust potential later though. I sense some enjoyment on your part on the potential of a bust over here. Perhaps I'm wrong but I never understood why certain illinois/chicago peeps always rooting against others snow chances.

Dtx in the office playing their saturday poker game, talking about how they are gonna wait until it starts snowing later today to issue headlines for tonight. I get the hesitation, they're probably on the fence on issuing a warning.

Yea I dont know why he keeps repeating that. I've never said nor have I seen any of us say it doesn't snow here. I've reiterated the big snows don't happen here.

While I'm grateful that I'm going to see a decent snow, it's just shows you how volatile/fluid these systems are to predict Last night's GFS had over a foot and today's run has half that. So close to a biggie as it gets its act together well east of here. Another big snow for our friends nw of Toronto in ontario.

Yes, bands almost always end up further nw when strenghtneing systems move our way. It's been pouring here the last hour, easily inch plus band overhead. Nice little appetizer.

Nam looks pretty sexy for later, could be surprised and see some good totals later once the low gets cranking. There's always surprises when a low is maturing and strenghtening nearby. It's a nice change as it seems often lately systems are petering out when they approach us. Still incredible to see the difference in strength and track of nam vs rgem.

The models were never really bullish on much with the front end thump. it's always been the better snows we're going to come later today with the main event. Also it's probably a good idea to get in the habit of not even looking at the snow Maps because even the 10 to 1 Maps you got to shave off three four inches from what they're showing usually. Also just landed (bachelor party tonight but was gonna come home anyways) and man my body is in shock once I stepped outside and took in the snowy scene. The cold never usually bothers me but the fact that I've been in 85° weather the last month, it feels like -5 lol. Excited for my first snowstorm in like 5 years.

Don't think I've ever seen the whole state of Michigan under an advisory except for four counties in the UP, counties that seem to always be under an advisory for lake effect.

yeah my mom back home says there's about 6" on the ground. It's been a minute since we've had a big snow (6+) but on top of some decent snow cover, been awhile.

Why did you have to go there? Everyone remembers. To be honest they really did need to issue one but unfortunately it took that jog Northwest. Dtx definitly felt the pressure from surrounding offices to issue one. With the storm system fully sampled and currently in the Rockies, perhaps the models are getting a better ingestion of data and we're starting to see some consistency with 18z. Although as I'm typing this I don't think there's any new data involved in the 18z suite

Would be nice to get some other models on board but the GFS is close. Rgem continues to be way weaker and SE than the NAM

Opens delta app.

Ah I was so ready to rip on dtx as always, I forgot how to read lol.

I think the models are struggling with the track as the low strengthens. usually when you have a deepening low like this it goes more North, like the gfs. Canadian/ukmet kinda shunt it east. Definitly delicate and bust potential.

Meanwhile DTX has a snow map out already with three to four inches for the whole area through the weekend. Kind of surprised they even threw out totals considering the vast differences in the models. The last storm the GFS was right and had a weaker storm while the euro was wrong and had a stronger storm. Both portraying the opposite this go around. I'd hate to be the nws.

Early look at gfs, it's gonna be on the amped side. You can tell early on the ridge and the gfs digs the low more, thus stronger, more nw.

Still pretty drastic differences between the nam/gfs and the rgem/euro. Ukie is on the SE side also.

Much like the nam, i find the HrrR pretty much useless past like 20 hours out. The rgem went se. Gfs nw. Who knows. Historically I'd be worried about a nw track but with seasonal trends and phasing involved here, I think this one has a better chance missing to the southeast.

Widespread foot plus 10:1. I'd imagine with a low strenghthening like that, would produce better ratios and a kuchera map would be more accurate than with this previous storm.

you can't have a better track, and evolution than the 0z rgem if your in metro detroit

Took the words right out of my mouth, but still concerned lol.

Ghd nw jog still haunts me. Alot of the biggies in my lifetime have had the big totals just to my nw so I'm always afraid of nw jogs. We are due for one.

For as strong as the low is, the lack of cold sector precip on some models is a worry but long ways to go but not really lol. 2 days is an eternity as far as potential changes.

At this rate, starting to feel like I wanna be further west than Detroit.

Is this system currently coming ashore now in cali?