Kmlwx

New development near Bowling Green and back towards Palmyra, VA.

Interesting cell has formed down near Goochland. Much further west than the main activity.

Fairfax County Police is of course being tight lipped. But supposedly it was a pretty specific piece of information from federal partners.

CIMMS probs are back up on that line.

The trajectory looks good for even MoCo and DC for now.

Some sort of line appears to be forming between Culpeper and down to the Bowling Green area.

Does seem there could be a brief few hour period when Wind Advisory criteria is met in a more widespread area than the advisory currently covers. We'll see what LWX does this morning. Overall duration should be short, however.

PEPCO already up to 5K outages. Been a fairly steady rise this morning. East wind is the enemy of trees around here.

VAD winds from LWX

Probably around 3ft in the more populated areas (not including south and east of the fall line).

39.9 showing on my cheapo thermometer.

Would like to add - I am *not* brave enough to fall out of an airplane. Was pooping myself and considering asking the instructor to just take me back down in the airplane the entire way up. I jumped second - and watching that first woman go was eye opening. Apparently everyone else got to slide to the door on their butts - my instructor made me stand and essentially shoved me out. Can confirm - even after this I am still afraid of bugs.

Did this today up in Harford County. What an experience. Would recommend to anyone who is brave enough to fall out of an airplane.

For this event he wont' even meh - he simply won't show up.

Not even any signs really of development on visible satellite either.

Clearly it was Thor arriving

Already some showers in MoCo. Could inhibit instability I guess.

All I'm hearing is "That activity is going to lay down some nice boundaries and we are going full on derecho mode"

12z HRRR is rolling in and it likes Fairfax County and then the Bay and Eastern Shore. Pretty much meh in all other areas. I'm tempted to say the fat lady is singing for places from Loudoun/Frederick, MD and west. Right now I'd probably draw a polygon for best chances running from Baltimore proper WSW back to Gaithersburg, SSW to Fairfax and then perhaps down to EZF and then including everything south and east of that line.

I think even my area (just north of DC/Silver Spring in Eastern MoCo may even look okay for right now. I might be right on the edge of the better stuff - but somebody will probably get a cool surprise today. Hail isn't one of the things we normally do well - there's a select few cases in the records of days when hail is an elevated threat even over wind gusts. Going to be an afternoon of radar watching. Have zero desire to drive through hail with my semi new car - but had plans to head to Annapolis this evening.

10z and 11z HRRR looked decent. Again, best chances south and east - but looked a little better perhaps for DC proper. But yeah - that 6z NAM nest run was pretty meh. We'll see.

Yep - was going to say this as well. HRRR and NAM nest have been pretty consistent with the threat being south and east. The Bay area could be positioned nicely.

Yep - just looks rainy to me now.