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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    HRRR did a pretty good job IMBY today. I think it was a little too weak on the northern end (N Central Maryland and similar). Still dumping here! Should lead to some improvement on the drought map update next week! We always seem to do well on non-outlooked storms days!
  2. Kmlwx
    Likely result is we fail on all three lol
  3. Kmlwx
    Storms moving over the core of the worst drought conditions on the Drought Monitor map. Every little bit helps.
  4. Kmlwx
    Transient small hail indicator on the cell developing near Kensington. Heading ENE.
  5. Kmlwx
    There's been some HRRR runs that have had a decent looking cell going across Central MD and then over to the Bay. So far, looks like updrafts have struggled - to be expected on a not even marginal risk day - thankful for any rain that can move overhead though.
  6. Kmlwx
    And of course there's always exceptions to the nighttime rule. We've had plenty of prolific lightning producers overnight that aren't severe - but could qualify if lightning was a determining factor. I guess it will depend on whether the instability becomes elevated in the overnight period. At least we have some days to track.
  7. Kmlwx
    That MCS on the 12km NAM for Saturday favors Virginia heavily. Also, the timing for the Sunday PM stuff seems to be overnight on that run - not ideal for daytime heating but we'll see how it trends.
  8. Kmlwx
    KLWX is back online for those that had not noticed. Right on schedule.
  9. Kmlwx
    That's probably the kiss of death for the threat
  10. Kmlwx
    GFS has much less instability for the same time period. We'll see how the modeling coverages Saturday into Sunday. If nothing else it's more chances at thunder and lightning to at least spice up the boring weather!
  11. Kmlwx
    18z 12km NAM has some decent parameters flowing in on Sunday evening. But...it's also the NAM at range.
  12. Kmlwx
    June 29, 2012 is probably not going to see a parallel here for YEARS.
  13. Kmlwx
    Interesting mention for severe potential in the morning AFD from LWX.
  14. Kmlwx
    I want NW flow and EML.
  15. Kmlwx
    The H5 indicates it would go south and west of us. There will seemingly be chance for storms (maybe severe) in the next week or so (not each day but mixed in). GFS seems to have a decent cluster come through Sunday PM.
  16. Kmlwx
    Plenty of thunder and a decent slug of heavy rain here in Colesville but nothing severe. Great to get the rain, though. Down to 67.6 degrees for the temp and 67 for the dewpoint. The soupy air has sucked - but at least there's payoff now.
  17. Kmlwx
    The NoVA cell/complex looks pretty fierce on the KDOX radar - looks good on the terminal radars as well. KAKQ is showing 40,000ft tops.
  18. Kmlwx
    100% agreed. Despite the other radars being obviously worse than LWX for many areas - it is great having so many failovers.
  19. Kmlwx
    Despite the terminal radars, not having the KLWX radar has been a major detriment. Nonetheless - looking at the KDOX radar seems to show a decent (albeit messy) cluster of storms forming. Seems many areas that missed out yesterday should at least pickup some thunder and rainfall if sub-severe.
  20. Kmlwx
    PWS picking up lightning now. 5 strikes so far today. At least we'll get some rain!
  21. Kmlwx
    Really it's just because you yelled.
  22. Kmlwx
    DCAPE is seemingly always a factor that performs for us even in potentially marginal events.
  23. Kmlwx
    HRRR looks semi decent for at least storms today - severity to be determined.
  24. Kmlwx
    lol
  25. Kmlwx
    Actually pretty amusing to see the storm tracks. The ones in PA are heading almost straight north, while the stuff that was in VA is heading east. Would have been tough to draw up a more perfect DC screwjob.
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