Kmlwx

I will say this - with regards to @EHoffman's comments. If the surface is 31-32 I would of course agree with him more. But if we are in the mid 20s at onset that wedge is going to be stubborn. Again, the warm layer is well above the surface. Low 30s probably means a wet event for DC. Mid 20s and there will be at least SOME trouble with ice. Remains to be seen as well how much of the stuff after any snow falls as sleet vs ZR.

I honestly am inclined to think there could be an icing threat even south of DC. Again, it'll be a narrow stripe as FRZA always is. I'm not confident (yet) that UHI is going to save you from staying frozen for longer than you're expecting. We'll see - still several days out - but just because you're in DC doesn't preclude you from a winter wx threat with this one. Even places like Fredericksburg could still be in the game for icing or sleet.

See ya next time then! It will probably be semi-significant icing somewhere in the region - that stripe remains to be seen. Low level cold air will be typically tough to scour out. I don't think this is a written off "quickly to rain" scenario for many areas. The warm layer is upstairs - not at the surface.

We got the thread started in January last year. Still tracking winter threats...but before you know it, @yoda will be copy/pasting severe t'storm warnings, @high risk will bring out the optimist in all of us when it looks like a marginal event is on the horizon and we'll probably fail 8 out of 10 times as usual. Memories of past severe events, pattern discussion and other general severe discussion can go in here. To get things started off - I just took a look at the CFS monthly on the TropicalTidbits site and it does seem to show a potentially nice severe pattern (if my weenie eyes are correct, that is) for June of this year. Perhaps some ring of fire type stuff with a decent ridge centered over the Dakotas area. Would think if that were to come true we'd stand a threat for MCS type stuff progressing down the ride of the ridge towards us. Of course...it's the CFS...and it's months away. Sooner or later our winter threats will dry up and we'll be tracking our first pencil thin low topped squall line. Might as well get started now... And for the sake of getting things off on a good note - here's the official @WxWatcher007 chart.

Are you going to post every panel....?

Have had no ice accretion on trees thus far near Arundel Mills - but now starting to see some. Looks like a tiny bit of sleet but mainly ZR. Roads just wet with ponding.

Shouldn't you of all people be able to fix the moisture issue? I mean....it's in your username Back on topic - it does seem a good chunk of the area will be pretty slick Sat PM to Sun AM.

A quarter inch of ice isn't that uncommon actually. An isolated power outage would be possible. You really don't start getting "crippling" damage until you're above a half inch of ice. Truly severe ice storms approach or exceed the 1 inch mark. Even a tenth of an inch though can cause mayhem on the roads if cold enough. Otherwise - .1-.25 ice is usually just pretty up in the trees. Usually...not always.

I've seen between a tenth and a half inch of icing depending on what model you look at and your geographical location.

I mean...we are essentially in our prime snowstorm climo period. If the storm of the year is going to happen - might as well be in this next few weeks period.

Give yourselves credit. At least maybe 6th or 7th grade. If you regress to fart jokes, then 5th is valid.

Believe he was in here during the recent long duration storm.

You might as well hire a camera crew and set it up like a PCH prize patrol presentation.

I'm efficient. Andy can be DHL when they hand off to USPS and you see the package sometime in the next decade. I'll be more like Amazon when they deliver to my house at 5:30am after I ordered an item at 10pm the night before.

Posted in the main thread...but this is a MUST READ RESOURCE for new members https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined Yes - there is some aspect of subjective decision making at the NWS - but the definitions are there.

I'll buy @stormtracker - a bottle of his drink of choice and be out of jail in no time

This is a cut and dry question - and the reason why we try to lean away from having people ask "when will watches be issued" It's cut and dry in the watch definition. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined - that is an EXCELLENT resource page for newer members. Winter Storm Watch A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period AND/OR 2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Watch for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period)

Okay..... Sir.

I always get a chuckle out of the people who wait for the watches like it'll have a direct impact on how good the storm is in the end.

@Eskimo Joe - has been "hoping" for a catastrophic ice storm for many years now. Or maybe hoping is the wrong word. He wrote about how bad a serious, serious ice storm could be a while back if my memory is correct.

Yes. He should read more and post less. 26,000 posts of nonsense

Have you 5-posted waterboy yet? Repeat offender much?

The WORST of the worst.

I've never once used the mute/ignore function on here. Might be changing this year...there are some straight up BAD posters on here. Worse than prior years it seems.

The overall pattern looks good. Decent cold shot arriving later this week. Beyond that models will fluctuate. Focus on H5 not the specifics.