Kmlwx

NAM nest sim reflectivity certainly could look worse. I'll take it given that I'm not expecting much to begin with. Could keep us semi satisfied while we wait for something bigger to track.

All we've got for now - and really for the extended period as well... D4-8 discussion excerpt ...DISCUSSION... Low/mid-level winds will likely strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday as an upper trough moves eastward across these regions. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much low-level moisture will be present ahead of a cold front. If enough boundary-layer instability develops by Wednesday afternoon, then strong/damaging winds appear possible with any storms that can develop along or ahead of the quickly moving front. At this point, confidence in organized severe convection producing a swath of damaging winds remains too low to introduce 15% severe probabilities. Still, some severe risk appears possible from roughly eastern NC to southern NY, and this region may need to be included in low severe probabilities in a subsequent outlook.

It's not May yet...

We may end up being at early May for any appreciable severe threat (or later). CIPS is pretty much dormant for any analog related risk to our area for the next 1-2 weeks.

The last two storm days we've had - yesterday and the day last week, really have featured some nice lightning and thunder.

The ARW and NMMs have both been super paltry on sim reflectivity for multiple runs now. There was really only one long range HRRR run and one NAM nest run that got good storms into the area. Meh.

There's the marginal risk for tomorrow on the 1730z update.

Long range 6z HRRR looked pretty good, actually lol.

LOTS of thunder with this stuff. Long, rolling stuff too. Not bad for a day I expected to yield nothing.

Predator satiation theory as well. Fascinating - albeit kind of creepy looking creatures.

Something can always sneak up on us (just like snow in winter) but nothing "big" is showing up at this point. CIPS extended analogs don't show any signal for our region either. Late April is probably what we are looking at for now - or even early May. That's not atypical either. La Plata 2002 wasn't until late April. Still early for us.

GFS is pretty lackluster on parameters. We'll see.

2007 had the major glacier sleetbomb. That was VDay 2007.

Huge swath of the country is lit up on the extended CIPS analogs from last night's 0z runs for the 168hr timeframe.

Looks like we'll be waiting longer for a legit threat. CIPS isn't enthused on anything really on the extended analogs. Something could sneak up, of course.

NWS wasn't kidding when they said "low topped" and "shallow" - echo tops are completely unimpressive.

The watch probs are very low.

I find it semi humorous that the strongest part of the line is in the northern parts of the area - farthest away from the ENH risk to the south and east. Rest of the line looks paltry for now.

We'll see how these storms do as they roll off the higher terrain.

Looks like LWX is going with the huge polygons for warnings this PM.

It looks like a fair amount of areas will see at least a few peaks of sun based on the visible satellite trends. How long those peaks last remains to be seen - but of course...the more sun the higher the chances of storms is.

Visible satellite does seem to show a some breaks in the clouds to the south and west in the mountains. I question whether that will actually make any progress into the metro area, though.

I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff.

If this bias applies tomorrow - the entire subforum would be out of the game