Jump to content

Kmlwx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,431

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I actually hopped over to Twitter to see if the person who kept mentioning it was mentioning it this time. Would be interesting to look at the path of the beam and the nearby terrain and buildings to see if one could identify a source. Definitely seems more common when there's actual returns coming in from the west.
  2. Kmlwx
    It's broad for the time being. Will be interesting to see how that cell/complex evolves as it comes out of the Blue Ridge areas. My personal prediction is that it'll get close to the metro area and gust out into the typical outflow and heavy rain
  3. Kmlwx
    Echo tops on that complex have been steadily increasing as well. Over 40kft now.
  4. Kmlwx
    Lots of clouds around now.
  5. Kmlwx
    Pretty much the entire CWA other than the extreme far NW counties.
  6. Kmlwx
    If it can grow - it's already kind of looking like one of those mythical long lines of severe storms that we've anecdotally all said we remember being more common in the 90s and 2000s.
  7. Kmlwx
    That complex of storms is looking really nice. Some nice wind velocity on it too.
  8. Kmlwx
    Watch probs are pretty low - but that's not unexpected given the parameters today. Two severe days in a row is always fun, though. Not super common (and we could make it three tomorrow).
  9. Kmlwx
    the ARW and ARW2 12z runs are really nice.
  10. Kmlwx
    Will be interesting to see where SPC coordinates the blue box. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the Maryland counties included despite the meso discussion being primarily for VA.
  11. Kmlwx
    Now we countdown to the pity MD and potentially the pity watch.
  12. Kmlwx
    And of course on the latest mesoanalysis update they've come down a bit
  13. Kmlwx
    Mid-level lapse rates are better than we normally see around here. That should check at least one box for @Eskimo Joe
  14. Kmlwx
    13z HRRR is a little less robust until you get south of DC and then SE of DC. But still a good signal for something popping this afternoon.
  15. Kmlwx
    Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado.
  16. Kmlwx
    Further...the super long range HRRR has some nasty cells mainly to the south and east tomorrow.
  17. Kmlwx
    The NAM nest has come around to showing some activity this PM now.
  18. Kmlwx
    The latest run of the HRRR has some good cells erupting right over the area from 20z and after. This has been a change from the 06z run. So the 7, 8, 9 and now 10z have shown a similar progression of storms. Let's see if it holds.
  19. Kmlwx
    Glad you didn't end up like the witch in the Wizard of Oz!
  20. Kmlwx
    It's got the supercell look for sure.
  21. Kmlwx
    Still not really any signs of them other than some holes under select trees here in Colesville, MD. No sound of them yet either.
  22. Kmlwx
    Definitely a lot of bouncing around going on with the NAM and NAM nest. The sim reflectivity looks decent for tomorrow on the NAM nest now - even looks okay for Wednesday. Could we pull the rare 3 in a row for storms?
  23. Kmlwx
    There have been some decent sim reflectivity panels for this afternoon and evening. But yeah - tomorrow looks kind of cooked.
  24. Kmlwx
    Our best events come when SPC plays catchup Remember...we were only in a 5% area for most of the day on the 2012 derecho day.
  25. Kmlwx
    The parent NAM is really going gung-ho on Tuesday afternoon. Even the sim reflectivity looks good on the NAM nest but for mainly Virginia. There are some hefty SARS analogs showing up on the parent NAM as well.
×
×
  • Create New...