Snowcrazed71

Looking at the other convection coming out of the Great lakes diving down through Ohio, that seems to be going faster and my guess it will catch up with the low offshore and pull that in. In. It seems like it's going quicker than the one offshore in my eye

So have I, 51 myself. I've seen some strange things happen. I remember a storm when I was around 12:00 that my stepmom and I got stuck in in the Hudson valley near peekskill when she was visiting her parents. It wasn't forecasted, but we wind up getting like 8 or 9 in all at once. Crazy. It was like paste.

Ryan, I think he means for more of the areas not in the Northwest hills more towards the valley, but not quite the river itself. Some of these latest model runs are definitely showing more snow for areas even outside of the Northwest hills. Never seen anything like this.

I'm kind of surprised. I still have Hartford county at a winter storm watch. I know they're waiting to see what the model show today and if there's going to be enough cold air to bring snow down to the valley. I'm in such an odd spot right on the west side of where valley meets the hills, as I'm up on a hill about 500 ft. Looking at the latest model outputs some of the bigger guys, I think we'll see at least 6 in which should warrant a winter storm warning. This has been the toughest thing I've ever seen and the most erratic models I've ever seen in all the years of being a weather enthusiast

I'm just wondering why are these models so all over the place? And just this one model, what is the difference of the 3k over the 12k? Is one more trusting than the other. Of course the 12k would be the one of choice lol. I've never seen models this bad this close to a storm. The second thing is the storm off North Carolina forming. It really has a nice circuit. A little eye already. Is that a sign that the storm is going to consolidate more as it moves up? It's there. It's happening right now, is that a game changer?

I saw that coming late last night. It's almost impossible that the NAM model would be correct while the others aren't. To be honest, a really bothers me is these are major global models, the ones that you and most other meteorologists use to make their forecasts. Forecasts. The sad part is being dependent on these models can really screw things up for all of the meteorologists out there. I know that all of you do the best you can with the tools that you have ( and it takes a lot more than just using model runs to get your forecasts ), but it just seems this year that all the models were just horrible. All over the place. Maybe it was just the atmosphere because of the volcano early next year? Crazy.

It was over for me early this morning. So no surprise here. It's just funny what's going to happen with all those winter storm watches and warnings that are in effect....not sure the people are going to get the snow they thought they were going to get. This one's over for all of us south of the pike. Maybe the Northwest hills of Connecticut, far northwest. The rest of us just have to enjoy a couple of slushy inches. Good news is next year will be a fresh new year. I am ready for spring

You better be right... Dammit! ;-)

It's over for CT.. except NW hills. Can't see the NAM being the only one right. Next year

The hardest part of seeing this is it is not impossible to get close to this. But odds are very low to see these numbers come from fruition

I would take the middle of the road between the NAM and Ryan's Map for my area. Damn.... Talk about being on your toes and nail biting. Lol

I can remember back in 2013 with that huge Storm we had ( I think Nemo ), the NAM was throwing out huge snow totals a few days before. I remember Joe Fury ( at the time on a different station ) mentioning it but not thinking that can happen, however, we wound up having those large snow totals that the NAM showed. So I guess it's possible for it to be right. One could hope, but I'm not banking on it.

But I'm guessing it's not happening as depicted.

I've succumbed to the fact that where I'm at in CT I am most likely to receive maybe 6". Could I get more? ( And there are models that show more where I'm at ) sure, but I think the set up is such that the likely hood is less than stellar of receiving more. If only we had a High to our north........ Still a fun storm to track ( but I am done myself with this Winter ). It has truly been a disappointment as far as Winter goes.

Going to be a tough night to go to sleep on Monday night. I'm just hoping when I get up real early that it's snowing. If not, that pit kind of comes in the stomach.....Wondering if we're going to get that change over quick enough lol. Now that's the definition of a weather weenie, and I'm there.

I'm in a weird spot. I don't consider me in the valley, but I'm not the Northwest hills. Those zones where it could go either way where? I'm located. Up at about 500 ft. I guess the possibility is there that it could be more, but also could be right where you have it. I have to say, this is an exciting storm, but a bit of a nail biter!

I'm a bit surprised that they only have two to four inches in the valley locations through Connecticut, and six to twelve inches the hills around. Seems very conservative to me

This is just what we wanted to see. Now . I won't if WSW's will finally be hosted for the rest of the area by morning? Is be surprised if not?

I'm guessing in not a good way?

We pray.

Just the bases be how much the bottles are going back and forth with big differences. Not like the typical windshield wiper effect. Every time I feel confident that it's going to be something good for us, the next runs come out and they're not as good, today. Today they seem to be better again. I will feel like it's a toss-up with all of these bottles. Like they don't have any clue. It's just odd to me.

This even has NYC in on the action. Not sure about that one ( sorry MJO ), but I'd love to be wrong

Whoa!! Has the Canadian ever led the way or come close to being correct within a few days?

Wasn't that not a bad run for our area though on the GFS?

Lol, I think I will do better up on the mountain here in Plainville. Then Kev will in Tolland with that latest map.