Snowcrazed71

I was just giving some info from another source... Calm down snappy. ;-)

But then there's this... The Madden Julian Oscillation or (MJO) is really important when it comes to long range forecasting during the winter. Thunderstorm convection initiating over various regions along the equator while simultaneously other regions are drier corresponds with a total of 8 phases we monitor that influence the weather patterns over various regions across the globe, including North America. When you have a lot of convection over phase 6 which is the Western Pacific, it likes to enhance a very warm pattern over much the US. Currently we are in a phase 6 and it’ll make sense to you if you have been outside today. When convection sets up a little further to the east over the Western Pacific, we call it a phase 7. That introduces more cold air back to the US, but is met with some resistance from a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US that tries to keep this part of the country milder. As we head into Thanksgiving, we’ll see a brief shot of cold air for a few days, but going into early December it will be met with a return of that ridge which will again increase our temperatures for a time. When convection begins to shift into the Western Hemisphere, we call that phase 8. Phase 8 corresponds to cold overwhelming the pattern for the central and eastern US. The projected evolution of the MJO in the coming weeks is to go from 6 currently to 7 during the last week of November and early December and into phase 8 by mid December. Until that time our temperatures may be highly variable. Once we get into phase 8 mid-December, steadier cold air will become more predominant and winter weather chances will hopefully increase just in time for Christmas!

Man where are you getting your info from. There's nothing that suggests a big warm-up around the holiday. Plus, it's a month away. You know as much as anyone else that things are going to change in another week and a half from now. I love the way you say these things to just try to help your reverse psychology theory. As soon as we get a real threat, you're going to be on top of it like white on rice ( just like the rest of us ).

Thank you first off for taking the time putting this together. This is not something anyone could just " throw together ". Great read and also for having all the info to back what you are saying.

Sometimes that's all it takes

Well I can officially say we're getting our first flakes of the season. Just took a look outside and we're getting a light snow shower. Definitely puts a smile on your face

Well, it seems by the last few comments that EPS is now showing some changes by the end of the month as well.

You're also right by the water. I know branford well. So it's not that uncommon that you haven't seen a killing Frost where you are right near the shore.

I'll agree that it's not cold, but torch? Come on man. You're pulling hard. Average highs at the end of November are from the mid to upper 40s. You have a few days in the extended where you're a few degrees above the average. Enjoy your torch

Just had our third flash of lightning and thunder. That one was loud!

TBH.... I truly wonder if he is just trying to get a rise out of everybody ( action, I would hope he is, because if he's not.......... ). Lol

Kevin... You do know that November is not a Winter month, right? I mean, meteorological winter doesn't start till December 1st.

Enjoy... Just after Thanksgiving it's gone.

Lol... I was just going to respond to his email saying that this is one of your favorite phrases to say. Lol

Ok... There is going to be a warm up for Thanksgiving.... But, it is brief and then things tumble. And it looks like we head into a pretty good Winter pattern after. So, yes.... You are correct about the Thanks giving warm up! (But I'm sure you won't be sad that it will be short lived and Winter will start to.make.its way into our region soon after).

Dude... You're like a windstorm.... Your predictions blow in every direction. You should look back on all your posts, especially during the Winter months.

But didn't Kevin say we have a big warm-up for Thanksgiving? Lol

Funny, on meteorologist. Gil Simmons live blog he does every morning. He mentioned this morning that he's really liking the period of December 9th through the 14th. Kind of bold going out that far at this point. He also did mention a couple of earlier chances as well. All good signs at this point

Ambitious. Lol

I think you're reading into it way too much. Someone I listen to that am really liking a lot with a weather page as mentioned several times now about disruption in the polar vortex. He's been on this thing for the last month and it looks like it's happening. It'd be the first time this has happened in decades in The month of November.

Damn... The season hasn't even begun yet and there is already whining ( jk ). Hey... At least things seem to be heading in the right direction as we head towards December. Better this than a true Shyte pattern heading into the long range.

I would pay attention to this guy. He never has anything positive to say. He only pops on every so often to spew out some negative crap that makes no sense whatsoever.

Oh like the last torch you said we were having?

Northeastweatheralert.com

I really like this guy and his discussions... He's been pretty spot on this far... NEWA Discussion – Stratospheric Zonal Wind Reversal Possible Before Thanksgiving According to the latest ECMWF ensemble 0z mean, the stratosphere may be gearing up for a zonal wind reversal just before Thanksgiving — something that hasn’t occurred this early in the season since the late 1960s. A stratospheric zonal wind reversal happens when the polar stratospheric winds — which typically blow west to east (westerly) during winter — suddenly shift to an easterly flow. This shift is often the direct result of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event and can have major downstream effects on our weather across North America and the North Atlantic for a long period of time. Once the stratosphere and troposphere couple, the result can be a disrupted polar vortex, opening the door to prolonged cold spells across the U.S. and Europe, or in some cases, unusual warmth in select regions depending on how the pattern sets up. If this potential reversal verifies, it would mark the first November event of its kind in over half a century — and could have major implications for early winter pattern development across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Stay tuned to the Dashboard as I will be tracking the stratospheric trends closely as we head into the Thanksgiving period, and keep you updated..this is going to be fun I promise.