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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strange, spectral (something related to lenticular?) clouds over Morgan and Roane counties: Apparently the mother ship was about to land on LeConte around noon:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fortunately looks like just a one off overloading issue.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Let me try that gif trend again, I'm having gif trouble today, may need to make an appointment for that
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I went out to get lunch and I see the Euro just full sent it too. There was a time not so long ago though, that CMC, Euro, and GFS all liked this weekend. What has pushed the boundary so far south on today's 12z runs? Trend on the Euro:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    well, not for Chatt, sorry
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    ideal:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    The good thing about this is that if anything like what the GFS shows happens, it looks like it will have more southern stream involvement instead of the vort. whisps from the north pole where we have to send hurricane hunters to dropsonde the Pac and Atlantic to set the atmospheric goalposts for the vort to ride.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the GFS took the CMCs beer, chugged it, and grabbed another.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'd gladly sacrifice any of the nearer stuff we've been looking at for that, but AI Euro says too much disconnect between the northern and southern jets and sadly that fits the antecedent pattern GFS pulls the eastern Pac critter into the flow for that run: Euro AI has that quasi tropical critter get absorbed into a larger eastern Pac upper low:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    At 150 hours the GFS had blessed us with another temptation.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Rediscovered a neat site when going through our links to see if I could find the site that shows how aircraft observations differed from model initialization conditions. I'm going to keep looking for that, but in the meantime, check the meridional flow into AK: (this is a precipitable water layer) Link: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2.100&center=11.178401873711785,-157.14843750000003&zoom=2&width=1316&height=780&basemap=bluemarble&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2&timespan=-24t&animationspeed=100&animate=true A little bit of a learning curve to use, but it has a lot of views of the earth and atmosphere.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    So is the consensus now that the Euro AI is the way to go for medium range (days 4-7 or so)? I like that is has a lower resolution like the NAVGEM, so it concentrates more on the general pattern than trying to get fancy with mesoscale features.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some reason my CAD plateau gif isn't working, so I will post a static image here Now, Tellico ninja'd me with that explanation of CAD, so to be clear this is not a normal CAD set up as Tellico describes. The above is some weird microclimate mess that may or may not play out.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    For tonight, do we really buy the models showing snow at onset for some lower elevations and continuing throughout? This is basically a front swinging through with a low level jet nosing into the TN Valley, right? I just can't think of a time when this kind of a set up produced snow recently for any lower elevations. Interestingly the 3km NAM has CAD for eastern escarpment of the plateau: If someone rides just the right side of whatever boundary there is, they cold get some good rates though.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just to be clear I think these two recon flights are different from the previous ones.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tropical tidbits has 2 over the Pac right now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like they are running two, one tomorrow afternoon / evening (16 20:30 -17 0230z) and one early morning of Saturday (17 830 - . 1430z). But I have no idea if I'm reading that flight plan correctly and can't tell whether they're flying out over the Atlantic or up toward where the vort. is, or both.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Apparently the Sunday system is getting *checks notes* a recon flight now. Are they trying to get a better picture of the Atlantic ridging? Or are they flying to sample the vort??
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Managed to get a few pics of the band as I drove home: I 81 southbound near mm 56 Looking SW from intersection of Wilcox Dr and John B Dennis: I don't think this was an optimal time, but there was some precip in the area the band sets up. Also @Carvers Gap: I may have brought some washing machine bad luck back to Morgan County, lol:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bays mt. band looks to be starting up a bit now, I will try to drive through it heading back to MoCo.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Desperation has set in. 100 second time lapse aimed generally upwind of the Bays Mt band:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course as soon as I get to Kingsport, it looks like something is trying to start up in the right area:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Noticed that and thought about you when I was driving up 81 this AM. That was really the only pace I noticed anything appreciable from Morgan county to Kingsport. Bays Mt band is no bueno this AM, but I did get some nice pics of Chimney Top:
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