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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 16 says Merry Christmas to TRI: HO HO HO
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, it just gets shredded by the bigger storm earlier, when that storm hits the big block and gets stuck. 0z overnight/ 12z yesterday (side by side, no less, a la Carver) I think with the Pac jet extension caused by the big Siberian high, having the zonal look from overnight is gonna be a risk until the jet snaps back after that extension. it's like a conveyer belt of energy getting cranked up and spitting out energy that has to be timed just right with the big NAO block. About the same number of EPS members have a storm around that time though, as compared to the 12z run, so something is still possible in that window. The 6z GFS (it's Christmas, so why not) shows a positive outcome to what might happen as the jet retracts: Some of the bad convection areas looking fiesty right now too: The 3D Strat vortex looking rough, so that can't be anything but good. No big split guaranteed and like others have said, no telling exactly how that would turn out, but so far it being under stress seems to have been good: Ensembles:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of those dollops doubled my snow while I was asleep, waiting on Sandy Claws!! 3.5 - 4 in a few choice places !!! glad to see Dandridge is ok!
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh yeah!:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snow dog: She decided it would be a good idea to go waller in the snow!
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is such a cold/dry airmass, I was wondering how well those models progs would verify. I will take fine flakes!
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks for the update, was curious about those radar returns.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know which house you are talking about. I grew up a few houses away, lived there from 1983 - 2007. One of my best friends lived in that house for a while. Good times on that road and the mountain for me!
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure. I do think the mechanism that is generating the NW flow is the upper low and the lift that it creates in front of it is what's generating the snows currently over eastern areas. I suspect it's one or the other. Not a dumb question at all.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the long-awaited snow bands associated with the upper low and lapse rates are starting to develop over KY and Middle TN:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Rain/snow line racing toward TRI:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    About to be an epic Christmas eve for a few hours for some folks in NE TN and SW VA!!!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Has anyone checked on Dandridge? Is it still there?
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    2 inches and I'm in the same boat as McMinn and Shawn
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indeed it is.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    The gifs just weren't doing it justice:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    For y'all up the valley, toward SW VA and TRI, I can't wait until you get these bands. 100% worth the wait!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Crazy drive back from Kingsport. 50 or to start, and some nice prefrontal clouds heading down 81: around MM 34: around MM 18, on the hill on 81 just north of Morristown: The temp dropped from 52 on my car thermometer, to 42, between Strawberry Plains and Downtown Knoxville Once I hit Oak Ridge, it was down to 36. A winter wonderland up her on the plateau!!!: Pretty unreal up here with the snow and the wind.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wet bluebirds are fattening up here in Kingsport:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Right over top of my house. Wish I was there! I’m in Kingsport now, about to head back that way.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z HRRR: 15z:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    How will the Holston and Bays mountain look in 24 hours? Drippy right now
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I may have missed it, but did anyone see this from MRX overnight? "With the strong signal for CSI, banding is expected and would not be surprised to even see a lightning strike with stronger bands across far NE TN and SW VA."
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can start to see the energy at the bottom of the trough doing it's thaaaang: The first image is the SPC's mesoscale analysis of 500 mb potential vorticity. The next image is the upper level WV from GOES 16. On that one, in real time, you can see: the red line is the energy at the bottom, the backing of the flow in response to the energy digging and tilting (arrows and the back line), and finally, what we want to look for, moisture being lifted back up, over N. MS (circle). Sorry it is so fast. We are waiting on a second piece of energy to sorta, schmaybe phase, with the bottom one, to back the flow a bit more, and get some more lift, before the deep moisture runs away: RGEM (because, why not, I'm riding it into the sunset today, might as well go for my best case scenario), says that should start to happen around 2PM Eastern, 1PM Central today. So just in time for a Bonanza Christmas episode on MeTv today. Obligatory RGEM image:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    C'mon blocking, help us out: That's the spirit!
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