Albedoman

I wonder if Mt Holly is considering hiking blizzard warnings for the LV tomorrow evening? The criteria will sure be there and the fact that the LV has consistently hit between 16- 24"+ snowfall predictions, having gust at or around 35 mph, snow ratios above 15:1, possible whiteout conditions for at least 4-6 hours during the heavy snow banding and being in or next to the jackpot zone on every model run for the past 48+ hours, I think it is warranted this time. I hope out all of this , I see enough convective instability to produce thundersnow. To me, that is way better than shoveling more than 12 inches of snow and helps make the storm memorable.

been snowing in the Lehigh Valley/Macungie PA for a few hours. Soon as the sun angle is lowered , more snow will be on the pavement. My backyard as of 30 minutes ago.

My backyard in Macungie right now

already have over an inch on the ground with moderate to heavy snow the past two hours in Macungie. Starting to accumulate on the pavement surfaces as the ground cools. As the sun angle dwindles this afternoon, it should begin to pile up

just for shitz and giggles for the snow weenies, this what the Lehigh Valley/ Allentown is showing. Of course I take but C"mon man- how unbelievable is a 41 inch snowfall? I would be happy with half of that. One thing, in every single model run for all the models for three days now, the LV has been close or near jackpot. That in itself is unbelievable.

i just cannot believe these snow maps. I all my years on this forum, I have never seen a clown map show such high snow totals. Even we get half of this, it is an ass kicking storm event with many hours of blizzard/whiteout condition as and record setting hourly snowfall rates and convective ( thunders snow) banding. This will be a storm to remember like 93 and 96 if it pans out.

I just cannot understand why Mt. Holly is gun shy about Mondays snow event. The NAM has been consistent now for days on showing at least 5 " in for the LV but tonights forecast says less than 1/2 inch. Evap cooling will overtake and they keep ignoring this possibility. I have seen it so many times in the LV in this situation. The ground temps are still cool as demonstrated by the ground by the dense fog advisory tonight? The model indicates at least an advisory level event for days now. Honestly, if Mondays event drops 4 in like I am expecting plus another 16+ in on Wednesday. it should set the record for the most snow in December for the LV. What a Christmas gift Additionally, the Wednesday snow event could be some major snow drifting issues that we have not seen here in nearly a decade or longer. It could be a storm to remember for sure. Nobody has brought that up along with a good chance of thundersnow has the low bombs out.

still in the bullseye 9" for the LV on the ECM

LV will get something at least. We have been in the bullseye for the CMC, Euro and GFS in todays runs for at least 6" or more. To see model agreement 7 days out is a nice change. I just hope they all do not agree to take it ups the Apps or out to sea in later runs. If its an inland runner, dam I hate cold rains. If the LP sits over the Chesapeake Bay area, big time snows accumulations when it goes negative tilt for NW of the fall line- can you say CCB set up?

for my 30 years of forecasting snow in eastern PA, I can firmly tell you historically that in a dying La Nina pattern that nothing will come to fruition as far as a major snow event until around Martin Luther Kings day- then watch out out. I expect to see decent chances of several 4-6 inch snowfall events before and after just after Christmas and then the snow bucket will be buried after 1/18/202. The pattern really sucks right now with the weak cold shots not aligning with the lp formation along the eastern seaboard. Cold dry warm rain is normal for this time of the year. Need a few strong clippers to keep the cold air in place and for gods sakes we need to get the lake effect snow machine going to even have a decent chance. So far that is even pitiful too with no snow covering to keep the cold air in place from warming so much before going over the Apps. Mts. This pattern will be ripe for a major ice storm come in January before the pattern changes too.

no, I am a soil/geological scientist . Name calling gets you absolutely no credibility as having a physical science background for sure on this site. With warm overnight temps, the soil temps cannot drop and grass keeps growing. 15+ degree avg temps overnight temps will not place cool season grass in dormancy Soil temperature is not the same as air temperature Soil temperature is not the same as air temperature. The earth acts like a giant radiator. It gradually absorbs the suns energy over time, and then releases it slowly. Air temperature can fluctuate dramatically as day turns to night and as the seasons progress. Soil takes a long time to change temperature. In the spring, the soil is cold from the winter and can take a long time to heat up. This is why spring scarification and lawn repairing can pose problems due to the soil not having warmed sufficiently. Seed may not germinate quickly and grass growth can be sluggish. Using an infra red thermometer to check soil temperature In the autumn, the opposite is true. The air temperature maybe falling, but the soil retains a lot of heat. This helps seed germination and aids the grass in absorbing valuable nutrients from autumn fertilisation. Many lawns can continue to look green and lush well into autumn and early winter. Autumn is usually the best time for seeding and major lawn renovation work.

another crappy night to sleep if you like cold crisp fall nights - windows open still in the low 50's at 1 am Mt Holly says to 38--- no way in hell with the stratus cover again. Avg low for my area is 30 degrees- I stand over 20 degrees above normal right now. I will be mowing until January at this rate.

I wonder if anyone from Mt Holly has done a study on how warm it has been since late May during the overnight hours compared to normal years? To have nighttime hours 10-15 degrees above normal constantly and sometimes even 20 degrees has been a real son of gun for sleeping with the windows open. The grass continues to grow, the green mold growing on everything outside from the decomposition of fallen leaves/ light rain, mold counts still high and continuing cloud cover. Yes the heater has not run much but really, I do like to see frosty mornings during the fall. This year's constant stratus cloud cover at night has been just plain unbearable

well the first legit snow/sleet/ white rain chance in less than 2 weeks for eastern pa. We will see