Albedoman

well here is the forecast for Yosemite Ca. Only in our wildest dreams for here. In just one night, they get more than our entire two seasons worth Tonight Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to near 15 by 8pm, then rising to around 20 during the remainder of the night. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Friday Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. West southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

heck my squirrels like over-performers too

here in Macungie PA near Allentown. Over an inch already

one more photo

Over an inch of snow here in Macungie- snowing its ass off with pasties. Roads completely covered now.

wash and repeat for New Years Eve. two+ inches of rain, temps in the 50's to the 60's after this brief cold snap. I see no major snow events unfold as the cold air is bottled up in Hudson Bay for the foreseeable future. The only hope is a coastal storm after New Years day but even that will melt away in a few days if the snow accumulates All I can say is I really tired of the severe wind storms. I have at least 2.5 years of major tree damage in my backyard from these high winds. Two more trees were uprooted last night and branches were everywhere. If we get another soaker by next weekend with a windstorm, the ground is so saturated that even more trees will fall in our region. The ground will not stay frozen and that is a real big issue right now. I see no below zero weather anywhere east of the MS river in the next 10 days. Even my relatives in western Wi are complaining of little snow and no cold air.

I am sorry but I do not see a real serious flooding issue with rainfall in this upcoming event for area. Past history in our area with these type of arctic frontal passages with a significant snow pack is that a good portion of the snow pack melts because of the formation of very dense fog (snow eater) in the warm saturated air before frontal passage which helps limits convective rainfall events even with warmer temps. I do however see some extensive snow pack melting from the dense fog from the high dewpoints and somewhat warm winds right before frontal passage but the frontal passage should be quick. I see the very brief heavy rainfall as a squall line with winds really gusty over 45 mph during and after the frontal passage . What concerns me is the front will move so quickly that you will have freezing rain/sleet and a significant flash freeze potential with a few inches of snow directly behind the front for most areas east of State College. The temps in eastern Pa/NJ will go from the mid to upper 40's to below freezing in less than two to three hours. Just my thoughts from over 30 years of watching these events unfold. I experienced the 1996 flooding and hit my house hard but that was a totally different animal than this arctic front. https://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputate/watermgt/GENERAL/FLOODS/fld96rpt.htm

no way in hell will sleet get this far north. Please provide proof. Please provide the KABE sounding showing that when Philly has not even at sleet yet

the 10:1 has 20 inches for the LV If sleet stays at bay , I would say 25 in is a good bet. Nothing like a good wish now and then. Either way you look at traveling on those interstates will be a living nightmare if they are not shut down between Harrisburg/Scranton and Allentown.

no worry, look at this map from the NAM. Snow tends to follow the geography. Anything East and South of South Mountain will be the tipping point for sleet. RT 78/81 from Allentown to Harrisburg gets crushed. Pottsville area is a good place to be and you are not that far from there. Rt 78/81 has to be closed down with 2-3 feet of snow period. No truck can get through that even with chains.

to all my weather friends on this forum. You are the first to know Just received this from PEMA Good Afternoon . Thank you con contacting the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. The Governor will be issuing a State of Emergency Declaration for this snow storm (December 16-17). You will have to check with Lehigh County directly to see if they are going to issue a County Disaster Declaration. Regards. Tim Timothy L. Roth | Emergency Management Supervisor Private Sector Liaison External Affairs Office Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency 1310 Elmerton Avenue | Harrisburg PA 17110-9713 www.PEMA.pa.gov | www.Ready.PA.gov Stay Calm, Stay Alert, Stay Safe Like us on facebook.com/PEMAHQ Follow us on Twitter @PEMAHQ and @PEMADirector Learn how to Be Informed, Be Prepared, and Be Involved at www.Ready.PA.gov

to all my weather friends here - received this late this afternoon . You are the first to know Just received this from PEMA Good Afternoon . Thank you con contacting the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. The Governor will be issuing a State of Emergency Declaration for this snow storm (December 16-17). You will have to check with Lehigh County directly to see if they are going to issue a County Disaster Declaration. Regards. Tim Timothy L. Roth | Emergency Management Supervisor Private Sector Liaison External Affairs Office Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency 1310 Elmerton Avenue | Harrisburg PA 17110-9713 www.PEMA.pa.gov | www.Ready.PA.gov Stay Calm, Stay Alert, Stay Safe Like us on facebook.com/PEMAHQ Follow us on Twitter @PEMAHQ and @PEMADirector Learn how to Be Informed, Be Prepared, and Be Involved at www.Ready.PA.gov

should not even be looking at the long range GFS runs now they are crap.- Euro, NAM and RGEM for the win The GFS shows a donut hole over the LV now- C'mon give me a break. For 4 days the LV has been in the jackpot zone. Trash the GFS in this range

this is for Macungie - I swear I was reading a forecast for Mammoth Mountain Ca. Most I ever seen actually predicted from one event: MT Holly real close in pulling the trigger for a issuing Blizzard warnings later this evening too. I think they should just to put more meat into the whiteout conditions under the winter storm warning that will exist to keep idiots from venturing out. Two feet of snow in 24 hours is just as bad as a blizzard IMHO Wednesday Snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 31. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. From the discussion: Even inland and back into the interior, wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible. This would result in blizzard-like conditions, especially where snow is heaviest. It is too soon to issue a Blizzard Warning, and confidence is too low to warrant issuing one, but the potential is there.

I wonder if Mt Holly is considering hiking blizzard warnings for the LV tomorrow evening? The criteria will sure be there and the fact that the LV has consistently hit between 16- 24"+ snowfall predictions, having gust at or around 35 mph, snow ratios above 15:1, possible whiteout conditions for at least 4-6 hours during the heavy snow banding and being in or next to the jackpot zone on every model run for the past 48+ hours, I think it is warranted this time. I hope out all of this , I see enough convective instability to produce thundersnow. To me, that is way better than shoveling more than 12 inches of snow and helps make the storm memorable.

been snowing in the Lehigh Valley/Macungie PA for a few hours. Soon as the sun angle is lowered , more snow will be on the pavement. My backyard as of 30 minutes ago.

My backyard in Macungie right now

already have over an inch on the ground with moderate to heavy snow the past two hours in Macungie. Starting to accumulate on the pavement surfaces as the ground cools. As the sun angle dwindles this afternoon, it should begin to pile up

just for shitz and giggles for the snow weenies, this what the Lehigh Valley/ Allentown is showing. Of course I take but C"mon man- how unbelievable is a 41 inch snowfall? I would be happy with half of that. One thing, in every single model run for all the models for three days now, the LV has been close or near jackpot. That in itself is unbelievable.

i just cannot believe these snow maps. I all my years on this forum, I have never seen a clown map show such high snow totals. Even we get half of this, it is an ass kicking storm event with many hours of blizzard/whiteout condition as and record setting hourly snowfall rates and convective ( thunders snow) banding. This will be a storm to remember like 93 and 96 if it pans out.

I just cannot understand why Mt. Holly is gun shy about Mondays snow event. The NAM has been consistent now for days on showing at least 5 " in for the LV but tonights forecast says less than 1/2 inch. Evap cooling will overtake and they keep ignoring this possibility. I have seen it so many times in the LV in this situation. The ground temps are still cool as demonstrated by the ground by the dense fog advisory tonight? The model indicates at least an advisory level event for days now. Honestly, if Mondays event drops 4 in like I am expecting plus another 16+ in on Wednesday. it should set the record for the most snow in December for the LV. What a Christmas gift Additionally, the Wednesday snow event could be some major snow drifting issues that we have not seen here in nearly a decade or longer. It could be a storm to remember for sure. Nobody has brought that up along with a good chance of thundersnow has the low bombs out.

still in the bullseye 9" for the LV on the ECM

LV will get something at least. We have been in the bullseye for the CMC, Euro and GFS in todays runs for at least 6" or more. To see model agreement 7 days out is a nice change. I just hope they all do not agree to take it ups the Apps or out to sea in later runs. If its an inland runner, dam I hate cold rains. If the LP sits over the Chesapeake Bay area, big time snows accumulations when it goes negative tilt for NW of the fall line- can you say CCB set up?

for my 30 years of forecasting snow in eastern PA, I can firmly tell you historically that in a dying La Nina pattern that nothing will come to fruition as far as a major snow event until around Martin Luther Kings day- then watch out out. I expect to see decent chances of several 4-6 inch snowfall events before and after just after Christmas and then the snow bucket will be buried after 1/18/202. The pattern really sucks right now with the weak cold shots not aligning with the lp formation along the eastern seaboard. Cold dry warm rain is normal for this time of the year. Need a few strong clippers to keep the cold air in place and for gods sakes we need to get the lake effect snow machine going to even have a decent chance. So far that is even pitiful too with no snow covering to keep the cold air in place from warming so much before going over the Apps. Mts. This pattern will be ripe for a major ice storm come in January before the pattern changes too.

no, I am a soil/geological scientist . Name calling gets you absolutely no credibility as having a physical science background for sure on this site. With warm overnight temps, the soil temps cannot drop and grass keeps growing. 15+ degree avg temps overnight temps will not place cool season grass in dormancy Soil temperature is not the same as air temperature Soil temperature is not the same as air temperature. The earth acts like a giant radiator. It gradually absorbs the suns energy over time, and then releases it slowly. Air temperature can fluctuate dramatically as day turns to night and as the seasons progress. Soil takes a long time to change temperature. In the spring, the soil is cold from the winter and can take a long time to heat up. This is why spring scarification and lawn repairing can pose problems due to the soil not having warmed sufficiently. Seed may not germinate quickly and grass growth can be sluggish. Using an infra red thermometer to check soil temperature In the autumn, the opposite is true. The air temperature maybe falling, but the soil retains a lot of heat. This helps seed germination and aids the grass in absorbing valuable nutrients from autumn fertilisation. Many lawns can continue to look green and lush well into autumn and early winter. Autumn is usually the best time for seeding and major lawn renovation work.