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Albedoman

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Everything posted by Albedoman

  1. as I said before the LP will jump to the coast. The NAM is starting to show this though the LP is further north than what I initially thought . Sleet maybe a problem for the I-95 area but I see more snow in the LV area and less ice. -to see an Appalachian runner this time of the year in the current pattern is unreal. I just do not see this happening with the strong High bull-nosing down in the midwest and southern plains with the extremely cold air. Its really a battle between the SE ridge and that dam high with the resulting moisture getting rung further southeast with every passing wave. The SE ridge will have to give some now and force the lp further northeast. The current models are off big time resulting in chaos. I base this on not enough data from the NW PAC to be ingested in the models. I would bet this lp moves further SE big time over the course of the next 48-72 hours and or another LP will form of the SC coast. Past historical weather patterns have demonstrated this
  2. to see an Appalachian runner this time of the year in the current pattern is unreal. I just do not see this happening with the strong High bull-nosing down in the midwest and southern plains with the extremely cold air. Its really a battle between the SE ridge and that dam high with the resulting moisture getting rung further southeast with every passing wave. The SE ridge will have to give some now and force the lp further northeast. The current models are off big time resulting in chaos. I base this on not enough data from the NW PAC to be ingested in the models. I would bet this lp moves further SE big time over the course of the next 48-72 hours and or another LP will form of the SC coast. Past historical weather patterns have demonstrated this
  3. Hey guys, I know you want to relate this event to weather history, but please take this to another thread on weather history. I want to see this thread just on weather models. Here is a link that may help yo understand what 1994 was all about. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/07-Jan-94.html
  4. like me, you are in it for the love of weather, not as a business. When you make it a business, then you lose touch with those who really seek your weather wisdom.. I have been reading your posts for a dozen years here and I could tell you love a good snowstorm as well as a good t-storm.
  5. the euro dance going on. Loses it at mid range- will bring back the Valentine storm by Friday when the West Pac data is ingested. MARK MY WORDS- IT WILL HAPPEN
  6. I have nearly 24 in of snow depth already with another 12 by the weekend for us not counting any potential storm after the 15th here in Macungie. Walt is spot on- entire snow season in snow depth for the LV is unreal and will lead to major flooding worse than 96 if we do not get a slow melt
  7. The amount of potential wintry weather is unreal the next five days. The biggest talk in town will not be just the wintry precip but the intense cold. Here is one of the GFS temp maps on the 12z runs today. Th 00z runs are not much warmer
  8. thanks. Nam12K at noon model run indicates 6+ now for us in Macungie.
  9. thinking LV should be raised to WSW minimum though but based on current road conditions from past snow event, Mt Holly should really consider it based on the noon model run now. I still have 2 feet and more on the ground and plows will have difficulty even maneuvering in the heavier snow bands with limited visibility. The Nam 12k shows over 6 in now- thats pretty reliable at this range. The NW tick is surprising many . I think Tuesdays storm will do the same too.
  10. Walt- I have 24 inches still on the ground in Macungie? Snow loads are rapidly becoming problematical in the LV as two major building have been destroyed and a Amazon warehouse under construction had to be evacuated. Do you see another 6-12 for us in the LV?
  11. Another 10 inches on my 2+ foot snow pack was called for in the Euro over a week ago as seen below as accumulated snow on the ground by Sunday. Wow is all I can say. Euro has been great sniffing out these issues at ten days but drops the ball at five days
  12. I am a physical geographer. Meteorology snow maps mean exactly shite if you do not understand the concept of the data and how it is placed on the map in the first place. I love when these idiots draw up a snow map and have no fricking clue on the basics of how a storm forms and operates in the eastern US. Clown snow maps are estimates anyways and should only be used to as a reference to meteorologists where the heaviest snowfall may occur. This reference is directly related to the last storm event where the Lehigh Valley continually was placed in the jackpot zone on almost every model while everyone was wishcasting these same amounts over their house in all the forums. Go to where the heaviest snowfall is predicted continually over several models runs and the forecast can be fine tuned from there for storm totals. Clown maps also usually do not take the mean but the extreme-- that should be the motto when reading these maps. What did I get? 32 inches of snow- several models spit out insane amounts between 40 - 55 inches but I did not run with them-. The point was that the Lehigh Valley was the target area and most models were spot on.
  13. Walt, I can't believe we commented on the same concerns this morning on my blog. Had 30 in of snow in Macungie area this morning- still snowing. Here is the link to this mornings happenings in the Lehigh Valley. Another foot or more snow will cause many buildings to collapse. I am also concerned about sinkhole formation because of the weight of the snow on weaken soils in karst topography. https://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-northampton-bowling-alley-collapse-20210202-jz2ch3qcybbfpmxupy2qooo44m-story.html#nt=pf-double chain~unnamed-chain-1~recommender~automated~mc-breaking-recommender~JZ2CH3QCYBBFPMXUPY2QOOO44M~2~6~3~3~art no
  14. if anyone has a true meteorology educational background, they know this storm event was not a bust. MIller B's are notorious for this widespread precip types in a very narrow areal viewpoint. Sorry that many of you were on the short end of the stick when it came to snowfall amounts but Miller B's are a starve to gluttony situation when it comes to final snowfall counts. For once, the Lehigh Valley was the jackpot zone- which has been rare in the last 20 years when compared to Philly and NY with Miller B's. Hopefully you drain your sorrows down with a beer and wait for a potential monster on Sunday- Monday with the possibility of actual Miller A storm event where everyone scores big.
  15. fwiw Macungie PA has hit 30 in of snow tonight and still puking snow. Just incredible banding today with pancake flakes and whiteout conditions. Triple phaser/Miller A possibility on Sunday- I feel good things for your forum. You guys need it. For me- 4 feet of snow on the ground would be incredible and a hell of a flood threat if the MIller A materialized
  16. i know exactly how you feel. For so many years, the LV was getting all sleet storm after storm while 20 miles to the north in Carbon county was getting blasted by heavy snow. It feels good tonight see the snow rather than shoveling that sleet. The 2007 LV Valentines Day sleet fest of nearly 11 inches of pure sleet was enough for me. That crap froze like an iceberg for weeks.
  17. keep it coming: 4 feet on the ground by next week for Macungie PA on the models. The big boy pants are on
  18. curious, what is the record for total accumulation of snow on the ground at any given time for the Lehigh Valley.? We stand to have 4 feet of snow in Macungie on the ground by next Monday at this rate.
  19. I really hate to say this but is sorely needed to be said. The Lehigh Valley got its Boxing Day snow event today. For so many years, that is all I heard on several regional forums about how Monmouth County, Raitan, Freehold area got clobbered with 30 inches of snow banding while the LV had way less than a foot of snow. I also remember the 22 incher at Philly airport area when the LV got less than six inches. Its equalization times I say tonight for the LV residents.
  20. still puking snow in Macungie. Over 24 inches now- getting close to the 30 in mark on the yardstick
  21. the deathband is still over Lake Tahoe ---oops macungie. Up to 21 inches
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