Albedoman

I think Monday maybe a surprise event though. I see a possible overperformer based on this last storm event thermals and radiational cooling over the weekend with the snowpack. . I see 2-4 inch snow event unfolding by late tomorrow model runs. Your thoughts Walt?

5 inches in Macungie. Dam warm tongue killed this snow event

thanks Don

Don, can you please add ABE to your totals? There are over 800,000 residents in the Lehigh Valley now and Allentown is now the the third most populated city in PA and in almost every snow event this year , we have been in the jackpot zone. I just get tired of cities with far less population get mentioned in your post and the unique physical geography of the LV be forgotten. ABE has received 44 in- (over 50 in at my house) which is 22 in above normal with another 10 in on the way tomorrow. We have a chance to hit 60 inches this year. Thanks

this why snow maps estimate are not reliable. This map below varies by each NOAA regional office as clearly depicted. Snowfall accumulations do not stop at county lines or regional office boundaries. When the media sees this, they run with it and confuse the public even more. People are tired of hyped snow maps. They just want the best prediction possible.

my feelings as well. I am having real good laughs on how panicking is setting in for some of the youngsters. This is a run of the mill overrunning snowstorm event and who ever gets dry slotted also gets the majority of the snizzle. Likely to see heavy banding set up before noon on Thursday with intermittent periods of snizzle adjacent to where downsloping is occurring near the heavier bands.

ednesday Night MT Holly pinpoint for Macungie is agreeable and makes sense to me with thinking 8-11 inches Wed night--A chance of snow after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 20. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday Thurs--Snow. High near 29. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Thurs night-- Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 27. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

on cue. I think the total amount is more in tune with 8-12 right now as the models become more consistent and I also believe mixing will be not be as prevalent from the LV north

I had thought this exact same scenario playing out and stated in my blog a four hours ago after the 18Z NAM run. Tonight's 0Z NAM runs looks like it is confirming my thoughts. Typical overrunning situation. Winter storm watches should be hiked by tomorrow evening for our area if the NAM model stays consistent in tomorrows day runs LMAO if the runs remain consistent though. Its a keeper in my book after the crap we have tonight.

sound advice. I have been doing this for 30+ years and I am very troubled with the chaos going on in all of the models, especially this mornings NAM run. Every storm event this week must be a now cast event. Models are changing as the events unfolds. .5 to 1 in of ice would literally devastate the rural areas of Lehigh and Berks counties. All of the tree trimming that PPL did the last five years from Sandy is going to pay off in just this storm event alone if it unfolds as it shows right now. Time for the pros to use all of the tools in the toolboxes and the weather historians to look at the analogies of ice storms in the 70's for our area.

you hit the nail right on. The models indicating these LP going west of the Apps is BS right now. Not enough data. Todays 06Z NAM model run shows the LP running through middle of PA. then immediately transferring to the east coast on Tues. I have been looking at models runs for over 35 years and I have never seen an Apps runner take an immediate right turn when hitting PA. Hurricane Sandy took an immediate left turn when riding the coast but that was a different scenario. A normal Canadian High blocks and absorbs LP' s waves to deflect but this models shows a HP that all of sudden tends to set up a wall rather than relax and deflect with a right turn when hit up on with an LP. It just does not work that way. Throw this model run out IMHO.

just think 50 inches this year is 10 times as much snow as we had last year. How can a municipality budget for snow removal with that type of extreme?

I think this thread is in as much chaos as the models. We all need to ingest more data to come up with reasonable expectations of this weeks wintry events. I surely believe what the models are currently depicting will depict the LV having a moderate to severe ice storm in this event or in the next one along with snow. These are simply all 24 hour now cast events for this week. Looking at these models to wish for heavy snow just cannot be done this weather pattern that is experiencing major upheaval. I see a huge warm up no matter what after the 24th and winter will finally turn the corner.

what? The epic snow storm on Jan 31 to Feb 1 was over 29 in of snow with 7 in on Jan 31 and 22.4 in on Feb 1 . We have had almost 45 in of snow thus far this year. If you count Jan 31 evening snow total, we are getting closer to 2014 snow amount for February. Thats way more realistic to me. To technically cut off snow totals for February 1 at midnight in the middle of a historic snowstorm really does not paint the entire picture of how much it has really snowed in February. To hit 50 in of snow for the entire winter is big deal in any given year here in LV. I think we have a decent shot this year to hit that mark.

as I said before the LP will jump to the coast. The NAM is starting to show this though the LP is further north than what I initially thought . Sleet maybe a problem for the I-95 area but I see more snow in the LV area and less ice. -to see an Appalachian runner this time of the year in the current pattern is unreal. I just do not see this happening with the strong High bull-nosing down in the midwest and southern plains with the extremely cold air. Its really a battle between the SE ridge and that dam high with the resulting moisture getting rung further southeast with every passing wave. The SE ridge will have to give some now and force the lp further northeast. The current models are off big time resulting in chaos. I base this on not enough data from the NW PAC to be ingested in the models. I would bet this lp moves further SE big time over the course of the next 48-72 hours and or another LP will form of the SC coast. Past historical weather patterns have demonstrated this

to see an Appalachian runner this time of the year in the current pattern is unreal. I just do not see this happening with the strong High bull-nosing down in the midwest and southern plains with the extremely cold air. Its really a battle between the SE ridge and that dam high with the resulting moisture getting rung further southeast with every passing wave. The SE ridge will have to give some now and force the lp further northeast. The current models are off big time resulting in chaos. I base this on not enough data from the NW PAC to be ingested in the models. I would bet this lp moves further SE big time over the course of the next 48-72 hours and or another LP will form of the SC coast. Past historical weather patterns have demonstrated this

Hey guys, I know you want to relate this event to weather history, but please take this to another thread on weather history. I want to see this thread just on weather models. Here is a link that may help yo understand what 1994 was all about. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/07-Jan-94.html

like me, you are in it for the love of weather, not as a business. When you make it a business, then you lose touch with those who really seek your weather wisdom.. I have been reading your posts for a dozen years here and I could tell you love a good snowstorm as well as a good t-storm.

the euro dance going on. Loses it at mid range- will bring back the Valentine storm by Friday when the West Pac data is ingested. MARK MY WORDS- IT WILL HAPPEN

I have nearly 24 in of snow depth already with another 12 by the weekend for us not counting any potential storm after the 15th here in Macungie. Walt is spot on- entire snow season in snow depth for the LV is unreal and will lead to major flooding worse than 96 if we do not get a slow melt

The amount of potential wintry weather is unreal the next five days. The biggest talk in town will not be just the wintry precip but the intense cold. Here is one of the GFS temp maps on the 12z runs today. Th 00z runs are not much warmer

thanks. Nam12K at noon model run indicates 6+ now for us in Macungie.

thinking LV should be raised to WSW minimum though but based on current road conditions from past snow event, Mt Holly should really consider it based on the noon model run now. I still have 2 feet and more on the ground and plows will have difficulty even maneuvering in the heavier snow bands with limited visibility. The Nam 12k shows over 6 in now- thats pretty reliable at this range. The NW tick is surprising many . I think Tuesdays storm will do the same too.

Walt- I have 24 inches still on the ground in Macungie? Snow loads are rapidly becoming problematical in the LV as two major building have been destroyed and a Amazon warehouse under construction had to be evacuated. Do you see another 6-12 for us in the LV?

Another 10 inches on my 2+ foot snow pack was called for in the Euro over a week ago as seen below as accumulated snow on the ground by Sunday. Wow is all I can say. Euro has been great sniffing out these issues at ten days but drops the ball at five days