Albedoman

C,Mon Mt Holly. You are worried about ponding and flooding and the soil moisture is high in todays discussion? You must be measuring the soil mositure on riverbanks. More than half of your forecast area has received less than one inch of rain in almost 30 days. Who cares about the PWAT if the temps cannot barely break 60. More than 3/4 of the precip falling on the radar the last three weeks is virga as the mid-levels are so dry. Lets talk about record cold highs chances on Saturday or analogs comparing this dry and cold May weather pattern to previous years in the discussion - at least something more realistic. I really think after memorial day, I will finally see a decent t-storm at this rate. How about the last time that May recorded less than one thunderstorm stats.? One thing that we`ll need to keep an eye on is the threat for heavy rain across SEPA. Soil moistures are running high there and the 1 hour FFG from MARFC suggests that we`ll only need an inch of rain to see flooding. I dont think we`ll get that, but some of the hires CAM`s are suggesting that the slow moving storms could have decent rain rates. PWAT`s aren`t high (0.7") but with slow moving storms and the potential for higher rain rates we may see some ponding of water and or flooding in areas of poor drainage.

well, almost a half of an inch last night woopee. Getting the green /yellow off the car. Now I need a windswept t- storm in the next 24 hours to get the crap off the house windows/siding. The grass will take off growing now too. With this much pollen around, lighting will be fierce in any t- storm we get too. The air should really be really clean on Thursday- linen fresh days as in the old days when my mother would hang out laundry after these nasty pollen days and the sheets would smell so good.

I have to rant: I am so tired of this ugly weather pattern. Everyday- 40-60% chance of showers/t storms that dwindle to a light shower or sprinkles or nothing. The radar is massively overblown everyday with virga. Cooler temps/cloud cover with absolutely no SE wind fetch to fuel afternoon t- storms. Here it is in May and I have only seen one minor t shower thus far. The pollen count has to be the highest ever recorded for eastern PA right now. I even have pollen in the middle of the house. The car has more pollen on it than salt in the winter the last two weeks. The LV has less than .25 inch of rain in nearly twenty days. According to the climate data, 1.22 in of precip for April- what a joke. My grass is actually showing drought stress from the scorching dry winds of 20-30% humidities blowing at 50 mph. I wish Mt. Holly would emphasize in the discussion when they expect this crappy weather pattern to break. We are heading for some serious drought conditions if the pattern does not break in the next 30 days and especially if the GOM does send up its moisture in our direction. I was really hoping for the coastal this weekend but that fell flat on its face. good luck

Is this fear mongering too this morning? Memphis NWS office reemphasizes my concern's from yesterday's post as well. This is the first time in yrs that I have seen them mention this type of tornadic development potential in their forecast discussions. National Weather Service Memphis TN 635 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ DISCUSSION... Storms will quickly start to develop over eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi by about 3 AM. Storms are expected to fire with the warm front, which will lift north. These storms will likely reach the Memphis metro shortly after sunrise, and head north with the rapidly lifting shortwave and surface warm front through the morning. Storms are expected to be more surface based with large hail expected at first. Lapse rate will be around 7 C/Km. Tornadoes can`t be ruled out this morning due to modest helicity values but the main threat this morning will be that large hail. Our biggest concern will be this afternoon/evening storms. The warm front should push north later today, in conjunction a cold front will approach the area from the west allowing for a warm sector to be set up. After these morning storms pass, short range models show a lull in convection. This lull is important for destabilization. During this time our SBCAPE will increase to 1500+ J/Kg in the warm sector. This, in conjunction with high shear values will promote large hail, damaging winds and the potential for strong tornadoes (EF2+). In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible. We`re looking at widespread 1-2" with localized higher amounts. The first set of storms should remain discrete but short range models show a line moving front the west around 22z. This QLCS will remain in a favorable environment for tornadoes and damaging wind as the low-level jet begins to intensify, but the large hail threat will begin to decrease. Short range models continue to show modest helicity values with large Significant Tornado Parameter values and our continued 1500+ J/kg CAPE values. These tornadoes can develop quickly and it can be difficult to provide much lead time, especially far from the radar. Given the potential for nocturnal tornadoes, it is important to plan ahead and ensure you are capable of receiving timely weather alerts. Try and develop a safety plan this morning so you can get to your safe place fast if you receive a warning.

right in the middle of DTT

I have been forecasting longer than you have been probably been alive. Read my profile. Just because I do not have a meteorologist tag does not mean that I am not one. I am retired. I earned my BS degree in physical geography/atmospheric sciences ( few schools had meteorology programs back then) and when computers were not even in the regional offices and the NGM to AVN to GFS model were the only models by paper and fax available. No internet and weather offices were at the airports with no regional offices. Everything came out from the supercomputers in Maryland and Oklahoma. Long range models were printed only once a week in paper newsletters. Prior to this, one relied mostly on personal experience and the satellite imagery as dopplar radar was not even around until the late 70's and eraly 80's and only available in certain areas of the country. Plus many meteorologists were former Navy air traffic controllers in the 70's and 80's , since they went to school to read and understand the AVN models, which I was one. This is not scaremongering and any one who downplays this unfolding situation has never seen this particular weather pattern evolve before. I also said "could" in my forecast too for the formation of EF 4-5. tornadoes. I have personally experienced EF-3 tornadoes myself in 1997 west memphis tornado and an EF-3 near Philly in 1994. Fuerthermore, a tornado emergency is usually reserved to be issued when debris ball signatures are clearly detected on the radar. My family trusts my weather predictions for 35 years. Can you say this for your forecasts? I have no reputation to tarnish.

I posted for this for my family in W TN Anyone living south of Tupelo MS to just north of Montgomery Al could see EF4-F5 size tornadoes. The last few years I have personally called this area the nation's DTT---- "Deadly Tornadic Triangle" because so many EF3-5 tornadoes have occurred in this specific triangular location in the late winter and early spring period, especially in the last 25+ years. These large wedge shaped tornadoes usually form in rapidly converging renegade supercells 50-150 miles out ahead of the actual cold front traveling in a SW to NE direction and being capable of having actual funnels of one and half miles wide and remaining on the ground for long periods of time. They usually spin up in the late afternoon to a few hours after sunset. I would also not be at all surprised to see the NWS actually issue the rare "Tornado Emergencies" which means a destructive EF-2 or greater tornado is actually on the ground. Remember where you heard this first --from me. No one in the media will tell you this because they are not true meteorologists. The shear factors are going to be unbelievable in places, Nobody else is saying this right now. Also, you may hear the media mention about debris balls, which occur in these types of wedge tornadoes and can be easily seen on the radar as a dark purple or red color. See this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#:~:text=Although%20it%20is%20not%20a,a%20large%2C%20strong%20to%20violent Even though the Memphis metro area will most likely not be placed in this high risk area tomorrow, I would not rule out any threat of a major tornado in the mid south region. Jackson Tn seems to be the magnet for this upcoming type of storm formation for tornado development in the last 20 years.

this idiot needs to retire. He gives pro-meteorologists a bad name. He could not predict himself out of a wet paper bag. He must have gotten his college degree from Timbuktu

I have been saying this potential in my blog for a week now- St Patty's day time frame- Miller A/B hybrid potential exists and cannot be discounted as we undergo a major shift in the MJO and zonal flow pattern across the eastern US. I call this the rubber band effect from next weeks warm-up. Its coming a like a thief in the night. Have seen this pattern change many times in March- always brings a potential good snow storm. The GFS models the last two days are picking this up this unique pattern change and hinting at better snow chances. While I am not claiming another 1958 storm, the pattern is somewhat similiar in the latestl GFS runs. https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/3/15/120-pm-the-great-blizzard-of-march-18-21-1958one-of-the-worst-snowstorms-ever-in-pennsylvaniasome-similarities-with-next-weeks-expected-pattern

I have been saying this since last week in my blog. March 17-20 big pattern flip. MJO major change along with a MIller A/B potential. Nice accumulating snow event after seeing 65+ degree weather a few days before this period. After that a brief cold period then hopefully spring is here to stay. I also see a great potential for a severe weather event if the warm temps hold out..

bring it on. I need the 2 inches of snow to help clean off all the salt brine spray on my car from the melting snow on the road. Still have over 10 in on the ground. These glaciers are not even calving right now as they are so harden by the the melt and refreeze with repeated cold nights. After tonight's event, if a 6-8 in snow event at LVI should occur sometime in March, it will probably break the all time record for snowfall at LVI.

bring on the 1-2 inch snow on Sat morning to cover the grass again LMAO

still not as bad as the infamous Valentines Massacre sleet/snow storm of 2007 that caused Gov Rendell to go bye bye.That storm will live in infamy for me and for those who use I-78 and I-81. I never shoveled almost 10 inches of solid sleet before that storm. I was tired as hell. The temps never got higher than 19 degrees that evening and even fell more. PADOT decided to rely on salt and never kept the blades down on the road and did not have enough trucks out plowing and was quickly overwhelmed by the sleet packing down by the trucks. The ice accumulation on the road surface was unbelievable near the Krumsville exit.. Traffic just stopped and people were left in their vehicles for over 24 hours.

60.2 inches of snow for the year in Macungie PA. LV has over 56 in. Nearly 20 in of snow depth still

Lat 40.53358 Long -75.59717

5 inches in Macungie PA today. Snow squalls for tomorrow and maybe a refresher on Saturday?

I told you guys this would be a snow surprise event and overcoming the sun angle issues would be no problem. Waiting for the half dollar to pancake size flakes to start falling. Too bad this storm is short in duration. Its like winter kicking us in the nads one more time before exiting. I am more concerned about the model chaos this weekend into next week as the pattern changes

nice to see post in this region Don.

Mt holly here in the LV just upped the totals to 7 in, expanded the WWA to include Montgomery and Bucks Counties and stressed 2 " an hour rates with great omega growth.

Mt Holly just upped the the possible accumulation totals to 7 inches in the LV. They are worried about the convective banding and now saying 2" an hour rates are possible. WWA expanded into Montgomery and Bucks Counties as well. Walter Drag and I have been discussing throughout the week this setup as a possible nice surprise.

3-5 in the LV with pancake size flakes expected Under a WWA. If it does snow 5 inches, will hit 60 in for the year at my house

Walt 3-5 in snow event for the LV. WWA issued for the snow event on Monday here. Model amounts have ticking up the last few days. Lots of convection- expect to see pancake size flakes for a few hours. The storm next week has me concerned- a few more ticks east and another significant winter event in the making.

On cue --WWA issued for the LV with 2-4 in south of #78 3-5 in north of #78. If it snows 5 inches in Macungie with lollipops of 6 in on the hills, we will have almost a two foot snow pack again. Bring it on before the meltdown later in the week which our snow pack to to a 6-12 in before the big storm event next week. The 30-50 foot snow piles in the shopping center parking lots will not be gone until after April fools day

I needed a good laugh from accuwrong

2-4 for the LV with lollipops of 6 in. This storm has the potential to be labeled as an over performer for many if the convective portion gets going. Do not underestimate the snowfall rates which can easily overcome any sun angle crap even on treated roads. A nice cover for the dirty snow along the roads right now and 4 inches will nearly give me over 60 in for the year in Macungie