Albedoman

dream on. SOS T storms fire up in the Allegany Mts overnight wane and die out in the morning before getting to our area. We are left in the debris cloud layer from these storms all afternoon. The t storms may fire up again in the late afternoon near Harrisburg when the clouds clear out. The issue is with these storms that form near Harrisburg is that they have been quickly moving NE and are dinurally driven that miss many portions of the MT Holly region with hit and miss crap. I have seen the northern portions of the LV and southern Poconos being slammed the last several days with continuous heavy t-storms only to see anyone in eastern Berks, western Lehigh and Northern Montgomery literally bone dry. Driving around , the corn is already in full tassle in the northern areas of Lehigh County while in the southern areas, it has not even tasseled.

you are spot on. But in retrospect, I have had only an inch or so of rain and very little severe t- storms in western lehigh County during the entire time. Even those rains occurred overnight in dying diurnal t storms only to refire near Philly to the SE or northern NJ to the NE the next day. I swear this situation is just like winter snow storms. The severe t storms have been very localized too. What I have noticed is a persistent pattern of t storms firing up in the areas between Altoona and State College in the afternoon and racing up through NY in the last three days. Any that come east of Williamsport have either died out or missed SE PA. That 10 inch rain in Bucks county came from a dying and training t- storm yesterday. That was very telling of of the lack of steering winds in our area too from the stalled fronts.

No Jaindl was not scared off. The Army Corps of Engineers and PADEP refused to permit him to dredge the creek. The Little Lehigh Creek does not need dredging. There are numerous debris dams blocking the channel along with a few beaver dams as a result of the 2018 tornadoes/straight line wind tree/feled tree damage. There are hundreds of dead ash trees ready to fall soon as well.

Volume/rate control of stormwater plays an important part. The Little Lehigh Creek watershed was the first stream in PA to have these modern model stormwater ordinances (1982) and was used as a basis for all others municipalities/counties in the state to implement. I know because I was personally involved on the Little Lehigh and its tributaries stormwater boards. The flooding of this stream is far worse than the Neshaminy Creek in Bucks County but gets very little attention by Mt. Holly/media because there are very few physical structures actually entirely contained within the actual 100 year floodplain of the Little Lehigh Creek --33 miles worth of stream going into Berks County. I could probably count less than 50 structures in the actual 100 year floodplain and my house is one of them going all the way to the Lehigh River. Allentown residents/commercial structures are not in the actual 100 year floodplain as the Little Lehigh Creek is contained in a greenway park that was donated by General Trexler to be preserved forever, one of the largest in the entire country. The only structures in the actual floodplain are the water treatment plant near the main stem of the creek in the middle reach of the stream and the sewage treatment plant at the Lehigh River, the way it should be for any municipality when proper planning takes place. Those facilities are well protected by structural walls for flooding events too. But you are indeed correct, the Little Lehigh creek and its tributaries flood constantly on the slightest heavy rainfall event. The current flooding problem is however is not just from over development. The main problem is that the historical cement quarries/iron mines in Fogelsville area closed up in the late 80's and pumping of the Little Lehigh Creek groundwater for dewatering these quarries ceased. The natural spring flow came back to the Little Lehigh Creek and its tributaries after about 10-15 years (1996 with the great January snow melt event) and so did the natural flooding , way before any new more land development could take place. The new stormwater/ floodplain regulations are working, its just nature taking over what man screwed with over 100 years ago when they mined this area.

MIke, regional favoritism thats all it is. There are USGS digital gauges that Mt Holly has access too and were never used. Official Flood stages have not been set up at the newer remote stream gauges In the Trexlertown area but I set my own flooding electronic notification thresholds up myself because my property borders the streams and I visually know the exact depth in which the streams comes out of their banks. If I can do this, so can Mt Holly/USGS. I did this when we had the record flooding on the Little Lehigh last August when the Lower Macungie Township municipal building actually was severely flooded and closed for a several months as the result of this historic flooding event. That flooding event was worse than Agnes or Floyd and that is saying a lot. The FEMA floodplain lines were violated by this event as well for the mapped 100 year storm event. All I am saying is the LV deserves much more attention by the regional forecasters in the regional discussion as almost a million people live in this MSMA area and well over 300,000 people in the Little Lehigh Watershed alone. Physical structural flooding damage in our area is not as predominate as in others in the MT Holly region as the Little Lehigh Creek has strict floodplain regulations( strictest in the state) and stormwater regulations for structures(again the strictest in the state) and structural damage is usually limited to open areas and road closures. However, flooding occurs constantly. Mt. Holly cannot rely just on structural damage reports but also rely on stream gauges. and precip hourly events. That is why USGS set up digital/internet telemetry gauging stations in my backyard as this area floods way before the city of Allentown's Little Lehigh Creek gauges do since these new gauges are also located further upstream in the watershed and have digital rain gauges.

Another point, anything near an inch tonight will cause flooding again on the Little Lehigh Creek. Why is there no flash flood watch issued? A radar out of NJ is not the only tool in the tool chest for forecasting possible flooding. Look at the amount of precip recorded each hourover the last 24 hours on Thursday- Fridays storm at both airports. What about the USGS digital stream gauges? They do exist. A flood advisory should have been issued after 12 hours of continuous rains. Two + inch rains floods creeks. That is a no brainer. Spring Creek Rd was closed all day in Lower Macungie Township from flooding. I guess the Lehigh Valley is not in the Mt. Holly area. Forecasters are too worried about discussing potential riptides to mention the two- three inches of rain that fell across the Lehigh Valley/ Quakertown area on Thursday- Friday in their weather discussion. There is almost a million people that live in that particular forecast area. Priorities need to be reviewed.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KXLL.html no flood advisory?

flooding on the Little Lehigh Creek. What the hell - not even a flood advisory issued? I sent proof to Mt Holly.. Had almost 2 inches of rain in less than 24 hours in Lehigh County. C'mon man. The creek floods my backyard at 3 ft USGS WaterAlert <[email protected]> 1:20 AM (1 hour ago) to me Gage height of 3.12 ft exceeds subscriber threshold of 3 at 2021-06-12 01:15:00 EDT 01451380 00065 Little Lehigh Creek near Trexlertown, PA Notification interval, no more often than: Hourly

severe t- storm here in Macungie area- 50 -60 mph- straight line winds - limbs down- tons of scorched leaves and maple helicopters everywhere in the bow echo portion of the squall line. Not a drought buster but I will take .35 in of rain at this time. The water running down the street gutters was actually yellow green for the first 15 minutes. At least the car got a washing

Yes- I am calling it FWIW. No significant rain predicted for another week. Go ahead and call me a weenie but I have been forecasting weather for 40 years and I clearly see the handwriting on the wall like in 2002 in a La Nina year. The GOM moisture eludes our region and temporary back door cold fronts offer no relief. Lehigh Valley is already 3+ inches below normal for the year and only ABE is recording any precip as they seem to be the wet spot in the entire LV . Their precip totals does not actually represent the entire LV existing drought conditions. The rain in the past 30+ days has been spotty and I have had less than .25 inches in almost 40 days here in Macungie.

soil temps have been well below normal. My basement temp are avg 61-62 degrees right now. The temps must be around 65 in my basement for the cicadas to emerge. The soil temps will rise once the moisture returns. The moisture helps hold in the the latent heat in the soil and enables the cicada to cleanly burrow out of the ground where they reside at about a 4-8 inch depth in the ground. Until then, the cicadas will remain in the ground especially if the soil is dry. Cicadas love heat and humidity. We just do not have the humidity right now for them to mature as they need the moisture to start the burrowing process. Furthermore, cicadas rely on tree sap to feed. If the trees are severely stressed for moisture and sap production ( believe me these trees are really stressed by the lack of moisture for leaf production right now especially in the upper canopies of the trees) these insects know not to come out . The grass is also stressing out big time and will begin to turn yellow by next week if we do not get significant rains by Sunday. With humidities in the upper 20's to 30's, I can literally see the grass blades shriveling up with highs in the mid- upper 80's. The stream levels dropped another two- three inches today alone in my backyard and the clay soils are cracking-( usually do not see that until late summer) If we have t-storms on Sat afternoon- evening that will help quickly bump up the soil temps. We have to have at least 1-2 inch of rain to reach the the soil areas of where the cicadas lie dormant. Right now, I just do not see cicadas burrowing with PWATs struggling to even reach one inch per hour with the extremely dry mid levels in the atmosphere and the lack of instability. Believe, once we have a good drenching downpour, they will begin to emerge quickly. .

dry enough for you? The soil moisture is being sucked out bigtime the last two days and will only get worse in the next few days. The creek levels behind my house are dropping a few inches per day now below base flow. Thats a serious drop IMHO for May By the way, anyone see the 18z GFS indicating a possible derecho- meso type storm formation on June 2 in the Ohio Valley heading toward DC? That will wake up the board if it happens in a hurry.

enjoy your brief pollen washing showers the next two days if you are lucky to get them. The yards should start turning more yellow as the short term drought takes hold. You will hear farmers complaining and it will make the media in the next week as crop planting is being delayed big time. I have never seen it this dry and cool at the same time for this late in May. The humidities should be in the 40-50% not 25-30%. The soil moisture is literally being ripped out in the next week.

By the way, here it is 1pm on May 9, 2021 and it is snowing in Clarion PA at 34 degrees. Global warming my ass.

.02" of rain for me- woopee. Nice rainbow last night because of the rain not reaching the ground. Mt Holly finally admitted into today's discussion what I have said already- dry mid levels are destroying their forecasts for precip in the LV. Next storm SOS. Precip falling in buckets in the Ohio Valley and then getting the door slammed in its face when entering the Susquehanna Valley area and veering up into NY. No warm air, no humidity. Enjoy the next 1-2 weeks of typical Astoria Ca weather. No real pattern change in the foreseeable future either. May 17-18 it may hit 80 degrees on the GFS. No soil warming temps for awhile for sure.

Snowing in Binghamton NY area this morning. Un freaking believable for May 8th. By the way , every 4 hours, Mt Holly lowers the precip chances from 80% to 40% to slight chance of scattered showers. I had enough showers to just wet the streets.. 01 inch

the unusual dry humidities is sucking the mositure right out of the soil. Three to five high wind events in the last 30 days with humidity down near 20% can suck the soil moisture out real quick. Add cooler than normal weather, dry mid levels with tons of virga, and no Gulf or Atlantic moisture and you are in the making of a serious drought. Many farmers have just now tilled because they do not want to lose any more moisture out of the soil. And just think, we have another 1-2 weeks of this crappy weather pattern. All I can say is the corn crop will be harvested late this year for sure and hopefully the heat and humidity come back. If the weather pattern does not break soon, we will see drought watches issued.

Agree. The farmers know as well as I do and I am a soil scientist. The Mt Holly meteorologists need to take trips up to their northern forecast areas and see just how trees are blooming- like not. Green grass- loving it. Deep rooted vegetation- signs of stress already. All of ABE precip has been hit and miss. Spotty showers does not cut it They may have had two inches since April 7th but their climatic data has also indicated no rainfall over .50 inch any given 24 hour period. These spotty but brief showers just happen to be over ABE and is not an actual representation for the rest of the LV. Thats bad for maintaining streamflow and growing crops. There were many days in the past 30 days where ABE receives precip and I got zilch and I live 15 miles away.

C,Mon Mt Holly. You are worried about ponding and flooding and the soil moisture is high in todays discussion? You must be measuring the soil mositure on riverbanks. More than half of your forecast area has received less than one inch of rain in almost 30 days. Who cares about the PWAT if the temps cannot barely break 60. More than 3/4 of the precip falling on the radar the last three weeks is virga as the mid-levels are so dry. Lets talk about record cold highs chances on Saturday or analogs comparing this dry and cold May weather pattern to previous years in the discussion - at least something more realistic. I really think after memorial day, I will finally see a decent t-storm at this rate. How about the last time that May recorded less than one thunderstorm stats.? One thing that we`ll need to keep an eye on is the threat for heavy rain across SEPA. Soil moistures are running high there and the 1 hour FFG from MARFC suggests that we`ll only need an inch of rain to see flooding. I dont think we`ll get that, but some of the hires CAM`s are suggesting that the slow moving storms could have decent rain rates. PWAT`s aren`t high (0.7") but with slow moving storms and the potential for higher rain rates we may see some ponding of water and or flooding in areas of poor drainage.

well, almost a half of an inch last night woopee. Getting the green /yellow off the car. Now I need a windswept t- storm in the next 24 hours to get the crap off the house windows/siding. The grass will take off growing now too. With this much pollen around, lighting will be fierce in any t- storm we get too. The air should really be really clean on Thursday- linen fresh days as in the old days when my mother would hang out laundry after these nasty pollen days and the sheets would smell so good.

I have to rant: I am so tired of this ugly weather pattern. Everyday- 40-60% chance of showers/t storms that dwindle to a light shower or sprinkles or nothing. The radar is massively overblown everyday with virga. Cooler temps/cloud cover with absolutely no SE wind fetch to fuel afternoon t- storms. Here it is in May and I have only seen one minor t shower thus far. The pollen count has to be the highest ever recorded for eastern PA right now. I even have pollen in the middle of the house. The car has more pollen on it than salt in the winter the last two weeks. The LV has less than .25 inch of rain in nearly twenty days. According to the climate data, 1.22 in of precip for April- what a joke. My grass is actually showing drought stress from the scorching dry winds of 20-30% humidities blowing at 50 mph. I wish Mt. Holly would emphasize in the discussion when they expect this crappy weather pattern to break. We are heading for some serious drought conditions if the pattern does not break in the next 30 days and especially if the GOM does send up its moisture in our direction. I was really hoping for the coastal this weekend but that fell flat on its face. good luck

Is this fear mongering too this morning? Memphis NWS office reemphasizes my concern's from yesterday's post as well. This is the first time in yrs that I have seen them mention this type of tornadic development potential in their forecast discussions. National Weather Service Memphis TN 635 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ DISCUSSION... Storms will quickly start to develop over eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi by about 3 AM. Storms are expected to fire with the warm front, which will lift north. These storms will likely reach the Memphis metro shortly after sunrise, and head north with the rapidly lifting shortwave and surface warm front through the morning. Storms are expected to be more surface based with large hail expected at first. Lapse rate will be around 7 C/Km. Tornadoes can`t be ruled out this morning due to modest helicity values but the main threat this morning will be that large hail. Our biggest concern will be this afternoon/evening storms. The warm front should push north later today, in conjunction a cold front will approach the area from the west allowing for a warm sector to be set up. After these morning storms pass, short range models show a lull in convection. This lull is important for destabilization. During this time our SBCAPE will increase to 1500+ J/Kg in the warm sector. This, in conjunction with high shear values will promote large hail, damaging winds and the potential for strong tornadoes (EF2+). In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible. We`re looking at widespread 1-2" with localized higher amounts. The first set of storms should remain discrete but short range models show a line moving front the west around 22z. This QLCS will remain in a favorable environment for tornadoes and damaging wind as the low-level jet begins to intensify, but the large hail threat will begin to decrease. Short range models continue to show modest helicity values with large Significant Tornado Parameter values and our continued 1500+ J/kg CAPE values. These tornadoes can develop quickly and it can be difficult to provide much lead time, especially far from the radar. Given the potential for nocturnal tornadoes, it is important to plan ahead and ensure you are capable of receiving timely weather alerts. Try and develop a safety plan this morning so you can get to your safe place fast if you receive a warning.

right in the middle of DTT

I have been forecasting longer than you have been probably been alive. Read my profile. Just because I do not have a meteorologist tag does not mean that I am not one. I am retired. I earned my BS degree in physical geography/atmospheric sciences ( few schools had meteorology programs back then) and when computers were not even in the regional offices and the NGM to AVN to GFS model were the only models by paper and fax available. No internet and weather offices were at the airports with no regional offices. Everything came out from the supercomputers in Maryland and Oklahoma. Long range models were printed only once a week in paper newsletters. Prior to this, one relied mostly on personal experience and the satellite imagery as dopplar radar was not even around until the late 70's and eraly 80's and only available in certain areas of the country. Plus many meteorologists were former Navy air traffic controllers in the 70's and 80's , since they went to school to read and understand the AVN models, which I was one. This is not scaremongering and any one who downplays this unfolding situation has never seen this particular weather pattern evolve before. I also said "could" in my forecast too for the formation of EF 4-5. tornadoes. I have personally experienced EF-3 tornadoes myself in 1997 west memphis tornado and an EF-3 near Philly in 1994. Fuerthermore, a tornado emergency is usually reserved to be issued when debris ball signatures are clearly detected on the radar. My family trusts my weather predictions for 35 years. Can you say this for your forecasts? I have no reputation to tarnish.

I posted for this for my family in W TN Anyone living south of Tupelo MS to just north of Montgomery Al could see EF4-F5 size tornadoes. The last few years I have personally called this area the nation's DTT---- "Deadly Tornadic Triangle" because so many EF3-5 tornadoes have occurred in this specific triangular location in the late winter and early spring period, especially in the last 25+ years. These large wedge shaped tornadoes usually form in rapidly converging renegade supercells 50-150 miles out ahead of the actual cold front traveling in a SW to NE direction and being capable of having actual funnels of one and half miles wide and remaining on the ground for long periods of time. They usually spin up in the late afternoon to a few hours after sunset. I would also not be at all surprised to see the NWS actually issue the rare "Tornado Emergencies" which means a destructive EF-2 or greater tornado is actually on the ground. Remember where you heard this first --from me. No one in the media will tell you this because they are not true meteorologists. The shear factors are going to be unbelievable in places, Nobody else is saying this right now. Also, you may hear the media mention about debris balls, which occur in these types of wedge tornadoes and can be easily seen on the radar as a dark purple or red color. See this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#:~:text=Although%20it%20is%20not%20a,a%20large%2C%20strong%20to%20violent Even though the Memphis metro area will most likely not be placed in this high risk area tomorrow, I would not rule out any threat of a major tornado in the mid south region. Jackson Tn seems to be the magnet for this upcoming type of storm formation for tornado development in the last 20 years.