Albedoman

severe t- storm here in Macungie area- 50 -60 mph- straight line winds - limbs down- tons of scorched leaves and maple helicopters everywhere in the bow echo portion of the squall line. Not a drought buster but I will take .35 in of rain at this time. The water running down the street gutters was actually yellow green for the first 15 minutes. At least the car got a washing

Yes- I am calling it FWIW. No significant rain predicted for another week. Go ahead and call me a weenie but I have been forecasting weather for 40 years and I clearly see the handwriting on the wall like in 2002 in a La Nina year. The GOM moisture eludes our region and temporary back door cold fronts offer no relief. Lehigh Valley is already 3+ inches below normal for the year and only ABE is recording any precip as they seem to be the wet spot in the entire LV . Their precip totals does not actually represent the entire LV existing drought conditions. The rain in the past 30+ days has been spotty and I have had less than .25 inches in almost 40 days here in Macungie.

soil temps have been well below normal. My basement temp are avg 61-62 degrees right now. The temps must be around 65 in my basement for the cicadas to emerge. The soil temps will rise once the moisture returns. The moisture helps hold in the the latent heat in the soil and enables the cicada to cleanly burrow out of the ground where they reside at about a 4-8 inch depth in the ground. Until then, the cicadas will remain in the ground especially if the soil is dry. Cicadas love heat and humidity. We just do not have the humidity right now for them to mature as they need the moisture to start the burrowing process. Furthermore, cicadas rely on tree sap to feed. If the trees are severely stressed for moisture and sap production ( believe me these trees are really stressed by the lack of moisture for leaf production right now especially in the upper canopies of the trees) these insects know not to come out . The grass is also stressing out big time and will begin to turn yellow by next week if we do not get significant rains by Sunday. With humidities in the upper 20's to 30's, I can literally see the grass blades shriveling up with highs in the mid- upper 80's. The stream levels dropped another two- three inches today alone in my backyard and the clay soils are cracking-( usually do not see that until late summer) If we have t-storms on Sat afternoon- evening that will help quickly bump up the soil temps. We have to have at least 1-2 inch of rain to reach the the soil areas of where the cicadas lie dormant. Right now, I just do not see cicadas burrowing with PWATs struggling to even reach one inch per hour with the extremely dry mid levels in the atmosphere and the lack of instability. Believe, once we have a good drenching downpour, they will begin to emerge quickly. .

dry enough for you? The soil moisture is being sucked out bigtime the last two days and will only get worse in the next few days. The creek levels behind my house are dropping a few inches per day now below base flow. Thats a serious drop IMHO for May By the way, anyone see the 18z GFS indicating a possible derecho- meso type storm formation on June 2 in the Ohio Valley heading toward DC? That will wake up the board if it happens in a hurry.

enjoy your brief pollen washing showers the next two days if you are lucky to get them. The yards should start turning more yellow as the short term drought takes hold. You will hear farmers complaining and it will make the media in the next week as crop planting is being delayed big time. I have never seen it this dry and cool at the same time for this late in May. The humidities should be in the 40-50% not 25-30%. The soil moisture is literally being ripped out in the next week.

By the way, here it is 1pm on May 9, 2021 and it is snowing in Clarion PA at 34 degrees. Global warming my ass.

.02" of rain for me- woopee. Nice rainbow last night because of the rain not reaching the ground. Mt Holly finally admitted into today's discussion what I have said already- dry mid levels are destroying their forecasts for precip in the LV. Next storm SOS. Precip falling in buckets in the Ohio Valley and then getting the door slammed in its face when entering the Susquehanna Valley area and veering up into NY. No warm air, no humidity. Enjoy the next 1-2 weeks of typical Astoria Ca weather. No real pattern change in the foreseeable future either. May 17-18 it may hit 80 degrees on the GFS. No soil warming temps for awhile for sure.

Snowing in Binghamton NY area this morning. Un freaking believable for May 8th. By the way , every 4 hours, Mt Holly lowers the precip chances from 80% to 40% to slight chance of scattered showers. I had enough showers to just wet the streets.. 01 inch

the unusual dry humidities is sucking the mositure right out of the soil. Three to five high wind events in the last 30 days with humidity down near 20% can suck the soil moisture out real quick. Add cooler than normal weather, dry mid levels with tons of virga, and no Gulf or Atlantic moisture and you are in the making of a serious drought. Many farmers have just now tilled because they do not want to lose any more moisture out of the soil. And just think, we have another 1-2 weeks of this crappy weather pattern. All I can say is the corn crop will be harvested late this year for sure and hopefully the heat and humidity come back. If the weather pattern does not break soon, we will see drought watches issued.

Agree. The farmers know as well as I do and I am a soil scientist. The Mt Holly meteorologists need to take trips up to their northern forecast areas and see just how trees are blooming- like not. Green grass- loving it. Deep rooted vegetation- signs of stress already. All of ABE precip has been hit and miss. Spotty showers does not cut it They may have had two inches since April 7th but their climatic data has also indicated no rainfall over .50 inch any given 24 hour period. These spotty but brief showers just happen to be over ABE and is not an actual representation for the rest of the LV. Thats bad for maintaining streamflow and growing crops. There were many days in the past 30 days where ABE receives precip and I got zilch and I live 15 miles away.

C,Mon Mt Holly. You are worried about ponding and flooding and the soil moisture is high in todays discussion? You must be measuring the soil mositure on riverbanks. More than half of your forecast area has received less than one inch of rain in almost 30 days. Who cares about the PWAT if the temps cannot barely break 60. More than 3/4 of the precip falling on the radar the last three weeks is virga as the mid-levels are so dry. Lets talk about record cold highs chances on Saturday or analogs comparing this dry and cold May weather pattern to previous years in the discussion - at least something more realistic. I really think after memorial day, I will finally see a decent t-storm at this rate. How about the last time that May recorded less than one thunderstorm stats.? One thing that we`ll need to keep an eye on is the threat for heavy rain across SEPA. Soil moistures are running high there and the 1 hour FFG from MARFC suggests that we`ll only need an inch of rain to see flooding. I dont think we`ll get that, but some of the hires CAM`s are suggesting that the slow moving storms could have decent rain rates. PWAT`s aren`t high (0.7") but with slow moving storms and the potential for higher rain rates we may see some ponding of water and or flooding in areas of poor drainage.

well, almost a half of an inch last night woopee. Getting the green /yellow off the car. Now I need a windswept t- storm in the next 24 hours to get the crap off the house windows/siding. The grass will take off growing now too. With this much pollen around, lighting will be fierce in any t- storm we get too. The air should really be really clean on Thursday- linen fresh days as in the old days when my mother would hang out laundry after these nasty pollen days and the sheets would smell so good.

I have to rant: I am so tired of this ugly weather pattern. Everyday- 40-60% chance of showers/t storms that dwindle to a light shower or sprinkles or nothing. The radar is massively overblown everyday with virga. Cooler temps/cloud cover with absolutely no SE wind fetch to fuel afternoon t- storms. Here it is in May and I have only seen one minor t shower thus far. The pollen count has to be the highest ever recorded for eastern PA right now. I even have pollen in the middle of the house. The car has more pollen on it than salt in the winter the last two weeks. The LV has less than .25 inch of rain in nearly twenty days. According to the climate data, 1.22 in of precip for April- what a joke. My grass is actually showing drought stress from the scorching dry winds of 20-30% humidities blowing at 50 mph. I wish Mt. Holly would emphasize in the discussion when they expect this crappy weather pattern to break. We are heading for some serious drought conditions if the pattern does not break in the next 30 days and especially if the GOM does send up its moisture in our direction. I was really hoping for the coastal this weekend but that fell flat on its face. good luck

Is this fear mongering too this morning? Memphis NWS office reemphasizes my concern's from yesterday's post as well. This is the first time in yrs that I have seen them mention this type of tornadic development potential in their forecast discussions. National Weather Service Memphis TN 635 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ DISCUSSION... Storms will quickly start to develop over eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi by about 3 AM. Storms are expected to fire with the warm front, which will lift north. These storms will likely reach the Memphis metro shortly after sunrise, and head north with the rapidly lifting shortwave and surface warm front through the morning. Storms are expected to be more surface based with large hail expected at first. Lapse rate will be around 7 C/Km. Tornadoes can`t be ruled out this morning due to modest helicity values but the main threat this morning will be that large hail. Our biggest concern will be this afternoon/evening storms. The warm front should push north later today, in conjunction a cold front will approach the area from the west allowing for a warm sector to be set up. After these morning storms pass, short range models show a lull in convection. This lull is important for destabilization. During this time our SBCAPE will increase to 1500+ J/Kg in the warm sector. This, in conjunction with high shear values will promote large hail, damaging winds and the potential for strong tornadoes (EF2+). In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible. We`re looking at widespread 1-2" with localized higher amounts. The first set of storms should remain discrete but short range models show a line moving front the west around 22z. This QLCS will remain in a favorable environment for tornadoes and damaging wind as the low-level jet begins to intensify, but the large hail threat will begin to decrease. Short range models continue to show modest helicity values with large Significant Tornado Parameter values and our continued 1500+ J/kg CAPE values. These tornadoes can develop quickly and it can be difficult to provide much lead time, especially far from the radar. Given the potential for nocturnal tornadoes, it is important to plan ahead and ensure you are capable of receiving timely weather alerts. Try and develop a safety plan this morning so you can get to your safe place fast if you receive a warning.

right in the middle of DTT

I have been forecasting longer than you have been probably been alive. Read my profile. Just because I do not have a meteorologist tag does not mean that I am not one. I am retired. I earned my BS degree in physical geography/atmospheric sciences ( few schools had meteorology programs back then) and when computers were not even in the regional offices and the NGM to AVN to GFS model were the only models by paper and fax available. No internet and weather offices were at the airports with no regional offices. Everything came out from the supercomputers in Maryland and Oklahoma. Long range models were printed only once a week in paper newsletters. Prior to this, one relied mostly on personal experience and the satellite imagery as dopplar radar was not even around until the late 70's and eraly 80's and only available in certain areas of the country. Plus many meteorologists were former Navy air traffic controllers in the 70's and 80's , since they went to school to read and understand the AVN models, which I was one. This is not scaremongering and any one who downplays this unfolding situation has never seen this particular weather pattern evolve before. I also said "could" in my forecast too for the formation of EF 4-5. tornadoes. I have personally experienced EF-3 tornadoes myself in 1997 west memphis tornado and an EF-3 near Philly in 1994. Fuerthermore, a tornado emergency is usually reserved to be issued when debris ball signatures are clearly detected on the radar. My family trusts my weather predictions for 35 years. Can you say this for your forecasts? I have no reputation to tarnish.

I posted for this for my family in W TN Anyone living south of Tupelo MS to just north of Montgomery Al could see EF4-F5 size tornadoes. The last few years I have personally called this area the nation's DTT---- "Deadly Tornadic Triangle" because so many EF3-5 tornadoes have occurred in this specific triangular location in the late winter and early spring period, especially in the last 25+ years. These large wedge shaped tornadoes usually form in rapidly converging renegade supercells 50-150 miles out ahead of the actual cold front traveling in a SW to NE direction and being capable of having actual funnels of one and half miles wide and remaining on the ground for long periods of time. They usually spin up in the late afternoon to a few hours after sunset. I would also not be at all surprised to see the NWS actually issue the rare "Tornado Emergencies" which means a destructive EF-2 or greater tornado is actually on the ground. Remember where you heard this first --from me. No one in the media will tell you this because they are not true meteorologists. The shear factors are going to be unbelievable in places, Nobody else is saying this right now. Also, you may hear the media mention about debris balls, which occur in these types of wedge tornadoes and can be easily seen on the radar as a dark purple or red color. See this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#:~:text=Although%20it%20is%20not%20a,a%20large%2C%20strong%20to%20violent Even though the Memphis metro area will most likely not be placed in this high risk area tomorrow, I would not rule out any threat of a major tornado in the mid south region. Jackson Tn seems to be the magnet for this upcoming type of storm formation for tornado development in the last 20 years.

this idiot needs to retire. He gives pro-meteorologists a bad name. He could not predict himself out of a wet paper bag. He must have gotten his college degree from Timbuktu

I have been saying this potential in my blog for a week now- St Patty's day time frame- Miller A/B hybrid potential exists and cannot be discounted as we undergo a major shift in the MJO and zonal flow pattern across the eastern US. I call this the rubber band effect from next weeks warm-up. Its coming a like a thief in the night. Have seen this pattern change many times in March- always brings a potential good snow storm. The GFS models the last two days are picking this up this unique pattern change and hinting at better snow chances. While I am not claiming another 1958 storm, the pattern is somewhat similiar in the latestl GFS runs. https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/3/15/120-pm-the-great-blizzard-of-march-18-21-1958one-of-the-worst-snowstorms-ever-in-pennsylvaniasome-similarities-with-next-weeks-expected-pattern

I have been saying this since last week in my blog. March 17-20 big pattern flip. MJO major change along with a MIller A/B potential. Nice accumulating snow event after seeing 65+ degree weather a few days before this period. After that a brief cold period then hopefully spring is here to stay. I also see a great potential for a severe weather event if the warm temps hold out..

bring it on. I need the 2 inches of snow to help clean off all the salt brine spray on my car from the melting snow on the road. Still have over 10 in on the ground. These glaciers are not even calving right now as they are so harden by the the melt and refreeze with repeated cold nights. After tonight's event, if a 6-8 in snow event at LVI should occur sometime in March, it will probably break the all time record for snowfall at LVI.

bring on the 1-2 inch snow on Sat morning to cover the grass again LMAO

still not as bad as the infamous Valentines Massacre sleet/snow storm of 2007 that caused Gov Rendell to go bye bye.That storm will live in infamy for me and for those who use I-78 and I-81. I never shoveled almost 10 inches of solid sleet before that storm. I was tired as hell. The temps never got higher than 19 degrees that evening and even fell more. PADOT decided to rely on salt and never kept the blades down on the road and did not have enough trucks out plowing and was quickly overwhelmed by the sleet packing down by the trucks. The ice accumulation on the road surface was unbelievable near the Krumsville exit.. Traffic just stopped and people were left in their vehicles for over 24 hours.

60.2 inches of snow for the year in Macungie PA. LV has over 56 in. Nearly 20 in of snow depth still

Lat 40.53358 Long -75.59717