It's not noise. Wave 2 has definitely come farther north on all models, just not as far north as GFS. It then does move e-se but still looks like a 2-4, isolated 5 possible in some spots N and W of NYC.
That's what I and others said when it was consistent in giving 2 feet to Albany area with Dec 16-17 storm. Im not throwing anything out right now but I always weigh GFS and ICON less than other models.
True but Ukie and Euro both showed a light/moderate event on their 00z runs so if 12z runs are somewhat similar that's a win especially with CMC coming north.
yes, but they are flip-flopping between cutting primary into blocking and then next model run has low sliding south and our area being much colder. It is a thread the needle event but completely different set-ups.
All globals show what could be a moderate wintry event for the 22nd. It's still a week away so things can change but it's the best shot that we have had in a couple of weeks and even longer for some locales.
Exactly. I just hate the term mild because it may be above normal. Barrow's normal high right now is like -7 but and if they are -2 well that's not mild.