HeadInTheClouds
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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds
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It really is. It's going to be torture watching the slow northward progression of precip up to 84. -
Why would it be only 10:1? I'm thinking at least 12:1.
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This is true. I think ratios will be higher than 10:1 N and W. Climatology is 12:1 where I am in MHV and could be higher.
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- heavy snow
- ice pellets
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When is the GFS being replaced?
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The main low is farther west closer to coast. That is what caused warming along the coast. That 993 low may be low developing on occlusion.
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I really want everybody to get decent snows with this one but something tells me somebody is going to get screwed royally and it could be IMBY. The better models are further south right now. The fact that GFS and ICON are further north and Euro, Ukie, CMC farther south does not make me warm and fuzzy but still 5 days away.
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It depends on where you are I guess. Have 2.5 here with light snow still falling. It's about what I expected.
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27 with light to occasionally moderate snow. 1.5 inches so far.
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28 with light snow. About an inch.
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30 with flakes just starting to fall. Expecting 2-4.
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The early consensus from the models from those systems 6 days out was suppression also only to come farther north with time. The 16-17th storm was a developing secondary that models had coming north to southern Jersey and then shunted east. It came further north and hugged the coast and we know what the result was. I'm not saying that will happen this time, just that there is a long way to go for this one.
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Actually the trends this year have been for the lows to track further north in time. It happened in Dec 16-17th storm and with the minor event today.
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This threat is legit. Every global has a long duration event.
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WWA in MHV. Expecting 2-4.
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Axis of heaviest snow is going to be north of I-90 again. 84 north should see 2-3 maybe 4. Metro should see an inch but temps are a problem.
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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
HeadInTheClouds replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
He cant right now. He's too busy talking about supression of the 26-27th wave as the models come further north. -
It's not noise. Wave 2 has definitely come farther north on all models, just not as far north as GFS. It then does move e-se but still looks like a 2-4, isolated 5 possible in some spots N and W of NYC.
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12Z runs have been better than 00z. I still think 1-3/2-4 type event. Lets see what Ukie and Euro say.
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This is true, lol. Mid-hudson valley by me too.
