NEG NAO

I agree - I think an 18 Z GFS track is as close to the coast as we want it with faster intensification - would be favorable for more frozen heavier precip 850s are reasonable

I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now my guess this is a mix of every precip type across the area

I think it will get close enough for precip but in order for it to be mainly frozen it has to be a dynamic system

Thanks for your support !

did I say it was similar ? I was responding to the poster who said "Miller A’s are exceedingly difficult to track this far out".

UKMET NOW ON PIVITOL WEATHER: Doesn't look that bad

not totally yet

exactly - this track is perfect for us on FEB 1st- 2nd too ! With cold enough air in the vicinity !

I am just concentrating on the track of the LP - if you are trying to figure out boundary layers and trying to be specific about precip types this far out - good luck with that !

12Z EPS 850s are fine throughout next weekend

From Mt. Holly afternoon AFD: THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DISCREPANCY LOOKS TO BEGIN THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS OPENS THIS LOW UP AND PULLS IT EAST FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAT ABSORBS THE ENERGY AND TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW HEADING TOWARDS BERMUDA. THE CMC CURRENTLY FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. MODEL PREDICTABILITY LOOKS LOW HERE THOUGH AND HAVE KEPT POPS CHANCE AT BEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. Upton AFD: BY NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TROUGH, AND THUS DEPTH OF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKS REMAIN UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND, WITH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION LOW AT THIS TIME.

and just west of there much less - plus this output this far out is not worth anything especially on that model. a borderline airmass can still produce snow this time of year - its still way to early to get into specific types and amounts

That's caused also because of the lack of precip less then 1/2 inch - this GFS precip map is not accurate with a 983 just off the coast

this is cold enough

I doubt next weekends storm is going to be a cutter

the best place for the MJO is the COD in this type of pattern if you want an east coast snowstorm...……...

here is the 12Z ICON - timing is faster and weaker but still basically the same track as the GFS and CMC

Waiting on the EURO - Dr. NO....

SUPERBOWL 2020 Blizzard ? - we have Boxing Day Blizzard - 2 President Day Blizzards - time for a Superbowl Blizzard

late afternoon around 3 - 4

I agree - will be more precip then currently shown on this model run with that LP in that position and strength - still not individual storm thread worthy IMO - have to see this type of solution keep repeating itself the next 2 days IMO GFS was locked into the same solution for a week prior to last weekends event

also with the Euro continuing to stay well off the coast chances are this will not cut west of us - more then likely a close to Benchmark track BUT that positioning of HP to the north with the cold enough air flowing in is the key ingredient...……..a negative NAO would help quite a bit to keep HP with the cold air from escaping too fast

also with the Euro continuing to stay well off the coast chances are this will not cut west of us - more then likely a close to Benchmark track BUT that positioning of HP to the north with the cold enough air flowing in is the key ingredient...……..a negative NAO would help quite a bit to keep HP with the cold air from escaping too fast