NEG NAO
-
Posts
8,507 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NEG NAO
-
IMO - I don't think the energy (storm) that is going to track across the country in the next few days has been fully sampled yet and fed into the models along with the northern energy. The west coast storm is progged to reach the west coast by 12Z Thursday. IMO expect further changes in model solutions over the next few days
-
This explains the Canadian change from 12Z to 0Z
-
this explains what happened on the GFS surface map looking at 500mb Vort
-
so you are saying the models will return to the big storm solution as we get closer ?
-
the ensembles were never on board - no cliff to jump off of - lessons learned - use the ensembles past day 5 and discount the GFS OP especially - the Canadian doing the GFS nonsense was surprising yesterday and today at 12Z
-
these phase jobs are not easy to predict 5 days out - models will keep adjusting each day we get closer with new data fed into the models each day from the ever changing atmosphere - so what comes out of the models on day 6 or 7 could be many miles different in any direction by gametime - I would expect further changes in the next few days - might not even be a phase or one too far away and we end up with a few rain or snow showers.......thats one possibility
-
why are some other METS saying the -PNA/AO pattern is not favorable ? You have proof that it is. Maybe someone should point this out to Lee Goldberg - Steve D. and DT
-
majority of ensemble members have yet to fully support the OPS - except maybe an AI ensemble which is not a proven in the long term to be accurate yet - so they never actually lost the storm
-
I guess the METS that don't like this pattern for a storm don't agree that the -PNA/AO supports larger storms that Don pointed out last night - Don had proof of this
-
Also - its curious that the Canadian wanted nothing to do with the storm phase then all of a sudden last night at 0Z and again at 12Z did an about face with a blizzard solution -0Z runs and beyond should be interesting
-
agreed - I don't like that the ensembles give little support to these overdone OP runs - we have been down this road before 5 days out - time will tell
-
take precip totals with a grain of salt this far out - locations of heavier precip will change run to run and model to model
-
of course the configuration of the precip field is going to change on all models - still ends up being a MECS for most of the metro
-
My take on all the models is they all have their strengths and weaknesses - so I prefer using NBM (National Blend of Models)
-
This is from this afternoons Upton AFD: AFD from KOKX
-
First of all you are talking about an OP model - and you should list some examples supporting your case
-
you on board for a SECS or MECS ?
-
so you on board for a SECS or MECS ?
-
agreed - I wouldn't discriminate against any model in this set -up - BUT when I see the GEFS and EPS not on board for anything other than an advisory level event - thats a RED FLAG against these OP models advertiising a MECS + event
-
agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ?
-
the eps is only an advisory level event
-
-
GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP
-
IMO all options still on the table - we are too far out to determine exactly when and if a phase will occur .
-
