CheeselandSkies

We had a relatively mild winter, so Lake Michigan temperatures are above normal. Still will undoubtedly have some influence but perhaps not as much as you'd normally expect in an early season setup. The frigid February of 2015 was one of the things in the back of my mind that had me throw in the towel before T time on Rochelle day...

I think I've seen it once before; can't recall when though.

The Day 4-8 left something to be desired, as well RE: next Tuesday in Dixie; usually even with model disagreement the man is gung ho as can be if there's any potential at all.

Haven't seen a lot of hard data on how smoking affects COVID-19 prognosis. I saw one article that said one study showed it significantly increased the risk of complications and death, but two other studies showed no correlation. Simple logic would suggest that it increases risk since your lungs aren't as healthy as they otherwise would be when the infection starts doing its thing. Still, even though data still suggests that given adequate medical care the confirmed-case fatality rate is around 2% (still several orders of magnitude higher than the flu) with the vast majority of those being over 50 and the majority of those being over 70; I'm still hearing enough stories of people in their early 40s or 30s getting fatal or near fatal cases to make me nervous despite my relatively low risk demographics (I'm 34, nonsmoker, 5'11"/188, haven't even had a cold or flu that I remember since November 2016). I'm also concerned for my fiancée (also 34, but has several health conditions) and my parents (my dad just turned 71, my mom will turn 69 next month; so any snark about 'all the olds dying' or COVID-19 being a 'boomer remover' doesn't sit well with me). Also, I bolded "adequate" above because that's the scenario if the hospital isn't overwhelmed and you can get on a ventilator if you need to. AKA not what happened in Italy and, it's becoming apparent, New York. So, all in all, I am social-distancing the **** out of this and encouraging everyone I can to do so as well. I should add that my fiancée and I are quite fortunate that we both work in fields that are considered "essential" to continue to operate during this quasi-lockdown, so our income has so far been unaffected; yet both our employers are taking major steps to reduce the risk to their employees (she has worked from home every day this week except today, my job description requires me to be physically present but we are practicing 6' social distancing and using an obscene amount of hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes/spray several times per shift, and those members of staff who CAN work from home are).

He sounds uncharacteristically bearish on the Day 3 outlook. Doesn't even use the "T" word.

Good reminder of that's what all the social distancing policies, closings, cancellations, stay home orders, etc are for.

Can it please stop being mostly overcast and in the 30s/40s? I don't get how even after a relatively mild winter with our snowpack nuked by the end of the first week of March, proper spring still takes forever to get here. People wanting to get out and "social distance" in 60s-70s and sunshine are gonna have to wait another 3-4 weeks at the least, and that's not gonna be pretty.

Amen to that.

Yep. Glad I didn't get suckered again by Lie-owa today (although TBH, if the COVID outbreak weren't happening, there's a good chance I might have since I have tomorrow off).

Yep, been there, done that several times over the last several years. No thanks.

16Z HRRR is meh for anything east of I-35 in IA. That's at least a five hour drive for me after working 3AM-noon (actually 12:20, had to stay late today as with every day this week due to COVID social distancing and sanitizing precautions slowing down the workflow, among other things). The expansion of the northern 10% and 5% tornado areas eastward makes no sense to me. Trend of the strongest activity being further west (closer to the MO river than the MS, at least until well after dark) plus the societal lockdown/"avoid discretionary travel" guidelines will have me sitting this one out. I keep thinking one of these years we have to get a legit early season outbreak involving the upper Midwest again (3/13/90, 4/8/99, 3/12/06, etc) but it hasn't happened yet.

That's-a spicy meat-a-ball!

Legit couplet on the 0047Z scan, but didn't look as impressive again during the actual warning. Appeared to be line-embedded. A supercell now appears to be trying to get going out ahead of that, will pass west of Breckenridge. Discrete storms look to have been struggling to become sustained all day.

Yep, therein lies the rub with this kind of setup.

My interest in this setup has been piqued a tad over the last couple days, I might do some local spotting if something comes up toward WI. Was thinking about going into Iowa; but between the abrupt societal lockdown/economic disruption, disagreement among the CAMs on where the strongest storms will track, likelihood of having to contend with the MS River and the poor chasing terrain nearby, and Iowa's general track record with tornado threats (doesn't produce when you expect it do, does when you don't) I'm leaning against it at this point.

To put that in weather-speak, that's more than died in the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak; or in any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1950 except for Katrina, Maria and (possibly) Dorian.

My reaction exactly. Did not need it to start looking like winter again with this pandemic misery going on. It'll be gone in tomorrow's 59 with rain; but then it will get even colder than it is now for Friday-Sunday. I know the winter wonderland is some posters' cuppa; but not mine, at least not before Thanksgiving or after about March 10th.

Finally got an official statement/policy from my apartment building's management on this (what they are doing as far as cleaning common areas, etc). I'm intrigued (and concerned) that despite the mass flight cancellations/airport chaos; I haven't heard of any action (increased cleaning, spacing out of passengers in cars, service cutbacks/total shutdowns, etc) from the passenger rail systems. Amtrak, Metra, CTA El...maybe I just missed it but I'm in the TV news business so I don't think so, unless something happened after I left work today. Has New York shut down their subway system? Lots of commuter rail systems in the Northeast, too. Jails and prisons are another thing that popped into my head. Dane County sheriff's department announced restrictions on visitors to the county jails; but what about state and federal prisons? Lots of people crowded close together; access is restricted but if the virus gets in it will wreak havoc.

Does it grind anyone else's gears that the thread for this subject in Off Topic is still titled "Wuhan Coronavirus"? I mean, the whole point of the rather utilitarian official name for the disease was to avoid stigmatizing a particular place and/or people.

What else is new? Except when Illinois gets early/late season snow while we're dry, lol.

I'm sure smoking doesn't help the prognosis, but let's not use being a nonsmoker as an excuse not to take other precautions.

Just what we need with this COVID-19 misery going on.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but MJO into the IO is favorable for severe weather in the CONUS, is it not?

CPC has had this in their hazards outlook for a few days now. SPC Day 4-8 hints at it in their wording but they're still reluctant to commit to delineating a risk area.

Quite likely the most reasonable post I've seen on this subject on any of the weather forums I'm on. Thank you.